ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 7, JONIMARIE

FIRST RACE

SAMMY’S MINESHAFT takes a big drop and is clearly going to be tough at this reduced level, especially given his early speed, as this opener looks to be a little light on pace; latest was the ultimate key race, with all of the top three returning to score in their next starts, the first and third finishers posting Beyers of 93 and 87, respectively. TWEET KITTEN was all out to win as the favorite last time when he came from off the pace but he figures to be more involved from the start today, given the expected race flow; these two may have an edge on the others, but ROGUE PATRIOT could play a part in here with an alert start from the rail and a forward trip.

SECOND RACE

HOLLYWOOD HANDSOME ships in from Saratoga for trainer Jorge Navarro, and though he was off the board in that last one the resulting Beyer gives him strong credibility vs. this field; rises in price but is effectively at the same level, meeting nonwinners of three once again. CAN DO ANYTHING makes his first start since October but fits well in terms of Beyers, and he should be able to use his early speed to his best advantage from this inside post; threat to steal this if unpressured by WELD, or others. CUTTER HELM surprised a step lesser in his 2nd start off the layoff, and though he meets better today he merits respect on the strength of that Beyer.

THIRD RACE

GINGER AND JINGLE has speed and the rail and will take them as far as he can on the lead under leading rider Nik Juarez; he weakened late in his most recent but he was under pressure from the start there. MYSTERY GUEST was no real threat as the favorite in his debut, on turf, last year; returns for a tag off the long layoff, which could normally be viewed as a red flag, but trainer Jason Servis is lethal with both absentees and with horses dropping from Maiden Special Weight company to maiden claimers. EL FENOMENO failed his turf test but figures to rebound on the move back to the main track; certainly quick enough to be a factor from the bell.

FOURTH RACE

ROSIE P has a big shot to steal this. She was unable to run with the speedy Helen Rose last time but there are no such pace rivals in this field, and she in fact does appear to be the controlling speed given aggressive handling in the opening stages; cut back in distance to 5 1/2 furlongs adds to the appeal. CHERI’S WIN doesn’t have the best of win percentages but she’s a legit threat here based on her best figures; draws wide but she has enough speed to work out a favorable trip. CARRY YOUR HEELS could get first run at the top pick, as she has proven tactical speed; latest Beyer was her best figure of 2019.

FIFTH RACE

MORRISON was taken off the pace in his latest but he has more early zip than that, and with today’s

inside draw he can be expected to be more involved in the opening stages; in fact, he should be just off expected pacesetter QUARKY, and if that stretchout sprinter fails to last he could inherit the lead at a most opportune time. FREEDOM MATTERS does like to run 2nd but with the right kind of trip he may be able to make the last run; would benefit most if a duel were to materialize in the early stages.

DON’S MARSH has been running against statebreds but he was behind a very good one in Golden Brown in those last two; winless on the turf but he does seem to be an improved gelding this year.

SIXTH RACE

BACK AGAIN is the first starter out of a stakesplaced dam but he’s by a sire, Candy Ride, who has been winning at a solid race with his 2yo firsters (about 14%); has to deal with the dreaded rail, a tough post for 1sters, but his works do strongly suggest he has some speed and he’ll be tough with a clean getaway. ALL EYES WEST debuts for Jason Servis and lures Paco Lopez, and this trainer/jockey combination is clicking at 46%, a rate that makes anything they team up with a contender by default; this colt is the first starter by a stakes-placed dam who won three races. BEACH TRAFFIC has some solid works showing, including those last two breezes; pedigree lacks punch, as the dam’s first two starters were winless in nine starts combined, but he is a contender based on the work tab.

SEVENTH RACE

JONIMARIE was sharp in defeat two back and was flattered when the winner, Watchin the Wheels, returned to score again, and this filly returned to run another strong race when 2nd last time, closing well despite slow splits up front; seems well spotted to finally make the last run here in her third start off the layoff. LEGACY PARK was up the course when last seen but that was no easy trip, as she was caught up in a race-long duel there; may be able to shake loose and back down the fractions this time around. HAND RAIL gets back on the turf, and though she’s winless on this surface she has posted some decent figures on the green; figures to be involved from the start.

EIGHTH RACE

THE GREAT SAMURAI was no threat to heavy favorite Joopster last time but that rival had a huge edge, and the Beyer he posted in that victory was well above par for the class and distance; this gelding will be looking to make the last run but there does seem to be enough speed in this field to set him up. NOLINSKI could be one of those runners close-up to the pace, as he draws inside and his hand may be forced; probably better going longer but if he’s able to shake loose for the first time going six furlongs he is eligible to go a long way.

PEGASUS RED is more likely to complete the exotics than he is to key them but he is in good form, and he does have a solid stretch kick; can pick up the pieces if he gets a contested pace up front.

NINTH RACE

UNTAMED DOMAIN was off the board as the 7/5 favorite in his first start off the long break last time but he ran a deceptively good race, making a midrace run at the lead before flattening out in the lane; clearly has room to improve off that running line with that comeback race under his belt. MUGGSAMATIC makes his first start off the Sienkewicz claim and off a very impressive win against lesser, but while that Beyer was a big improvement over his prior start he has posted figures in the 90’s in the past, suggesting that was no fluke; dangerous given a clean trip and the right set up. FORTUNE

COOKIE tries the turf again, which is clearly not his best surface, but nd he’s in such good form he has to be respected; ability to lead or rate should translate to a favorable trip.

TENTH RACE

FIRST DEAL was no match for the mercurial Shancelot two back but other than that race — and the race at Gulfstream when he didn’t break well — he’s undefeated, as his other “loss” came when he was disqualified at Tampa; he’s up in class for this but he appears to be the one to beat based on that 92 Beyer he posted last time against older optional claimers. BRONZED was a game winner in the Lookin At Lucky Stakes last time, and the Beyer he posted matched a career high for him; will look to steal it for Servis/Lopez. ADMIRAL

LYNCH has regressed in terms of Beyers but he was in against older at Belmont two back and he was hurt by the race flow last time; may be the right value play in the Jersey Shore as the longer price of the two Navarro runners (First Deal).

ELEVENTH RACE

RICHIE’S SISTER was off the board when last seen but that race was rained off the turf, and she clearly is best on the green. She has high speed and she could be tough if able to shake loose easily enough; another runner from Servis/Lopez, a tandem that could be sitting on a big day. DANCING

LUCY is also easily forgiven for her latest, another race moved to the main track, as she likely only stayed in that one because she needed a race off the long hiatus; expect her to come out running with one under her belt and with the switch back to her preferred surface. THUMP may be prepping for longer here, as she does not normally sprint on the grass, but she could fall into a trip behind the speeds here.

TWELFTH RACE

SPOTMEIFUCAN could be the deceptive clear speed in this sprint, which is a little light on pace; he chased quick fractions in his latest and was in an abbreviated sprint last time but he has enough speed to shake loose in the opening stages of this one if pushed hard from the gate. FRAN’S WORRIER makes his first start off the claim, a race he may have lost before the start, as he broke through the gate; chased a loose speed and eventual winner there but with a better break today he should be more prominent, due to the expected race flow. PERSON TO PERSON benefited from a favorable pace scenario in his most recent but a similar situation could unfold here, as the speeds could hold the edge.

THIRTEENTH RACE

PORTULACA is kin to three winners, including J R’s Rhythm, who won three races, and Pascal Chant, who won his own debut as a 2-year-old, and her dam was a stakes-placed sprinter; sports some nice works for this and should be expected to come out running for trainer Pat McBurney, especially if some money shows. BRIDGE TO BROOKLYN takes the blinkers off and drops in for a tag for the first time for trainer Chuck Spina; she comes out of a couple of races where she was against the pace scenario but she stands to improve given a better set up today. SHANGHAI MISTRESS is one of those runners who will be mixing it up early; she took money for that debut, and though she tired late that was a solid effort, as the initial fraction was quick.