ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 4, SOMETHINGTOTELLYOU

FIRST RACE

MAGARI has won her last two starts over this track, both of those following short layoffs, and she has faced better in her two most recent starts, including the streaking My Victoria Rose (six straight wins); drops back down with enough speed to keep close in a race that may not feature a competitive pace. The drawback to MOONDANCE JOY is just that she isn’t exactly a winning-type and she is dropping a bit off the claim after being cut in half last time and settling for a distant secondbest; good post and her best race will likely do it. MIDNITESALRIGHT won two of her first three off the claim, both times while showing speed, in races that didn’t exactly come back fast; her speed projects to play well from the rail.

SECOND RACE

REMEMBERING BOBBIE never traveled first time out in MSW company but ran better than it may appear when dropped second time out as she made an early four-wide move to take over after breaking slowly, before tiring late; had no chance with that blowout winner last time. TRANS MISSISSIPPI’s first start on the class drop that she needed came on turf and she was nowhere at the end after showing brief speed; picks up Irad for her first start vs. claimers on dirt and her debut effort was not bad at all despite failing to make an impact. SAVVY CAIRO has done no running in her first two starts vs. better, one over a sloppy track and the other over turf; puts blinkers on for the class drop and switches to a trainer who has had something of a breakout year.

THIRD RACE

PLAYING HOOKY failed to make a real impact off a short layoff last time, though he never had a real chance there after being taken in hand at the start to wind up last in a race that was dominated on the front end, and he was actually racing on gamely in the stretch; has more speed than that based on his previous form and this is a slight (at least) class drop for him. VARIANT PERCEPTION was in good form earlier this year for Chad Brown while not getting overly ambitious and he was out of position when rated back to last behind a slow pace as the favorite last time; Nevin has modest numbers off the claim with turf horses - from a relatively small sample - but both wins in this situation have come with horses that were entered right back at the same two-life level they were taken for. INSCOM dropped for his NY debut in September and brought his solid California form with him to score after a good up-close trip; drops back down with tactical speed after facing better last time and proving to be no match.

FOURTH RACE

SOMETHINGTOTELLYOU debuted sprinting in September in a race that featured next-out Sleepy Hollow winner Captain Bombastic, and he was working hard right from the start while looking like a horse that was in need of more ground; colt by Honor Code from a mare who posted all three career wins routing on dirt - including the nonefurlong Saratoga Dew - gets the stretch out right away. TAPIZEARANCE has attained a level in his last three starts - after missing the break first time out - but he has improved on those races while facing some solid fields; wasn’t beating the dominant winner last time but probably ran the secondbest race while coming wide as the runnerup rode the rail. FIRST DEPUTY has the speed to make the lead in this spot as he stretches out for the first time, and he didn’t run poorly last time in his main track debut, but he hasn’t run fast yet while taking money along the way; blinkers on for the stretch out.

FIFTH RACE

SMOKEN DEB ran pretty well on dirt earlier this year while showing good speed then got a layoff before shipping up to NY in September and getting buried; turf debut last time came against a couple of better mares and she was not embarrassed in that spot. NAN’S PLAN steps into a difficult spot making her turf debut off the layoff with just the

winning debut behind her, but she had to race all the way first time out and stayed gamely to prevail; switched to Gargan with enough turf pedigree to handle the switch. BEAN COUNTER wasn’t winning first time out though she could have finished closer if not for being in traffic late; dropped for her return from the layoff and actually had a relatively easy time getting to the lead in that spot, before getting away in the stretch; has plenty of upside, as do the top two.

SIXTH RACE

BEALE STREET has been improving since starting back from the layoff and while she didn’t beat the strongest field in her maiden win first time back, she has run a lot better in her last two starts while not really having a fair chance either time; running style works against her but she is still coming forward and can contend here if she can pull a trip. WHATDOESASHARKSAY sat a nice trip when stretched out a bit last time but she was game to push her way off the inside in the stretch, before coming with a good finish to get clear; coming forward all the time and the distance appears to be no issue. TASS had enough trouble two back to make last time the right time, and she ran well there to hold her advantage after taking control of the pace right from the start; stretches out with a competitive figure for that win last time and she projects to be forward again.

SEVENTH RACE

WADADLI PRINCESS is going to need at least some pace to develop here as she returns from a 164-day layoff but there appears to be a chance of that happening and she showed some real promise early on with two wins and three runnerup efforts from her first five dirt starts; landed in a paceless Bouwerie when last seen and came wide as the 1-2 finishers rode the inside. NEW GIRL IN TOWN has been ultra-consistent throughout her career and showed that she can bring her race to this circuit when scoring an upset over Cash Offer in Saratoga over the summer; good fit here with her tactical speed after facing a couple of fields recently that were at least as good as this one. SUNSHINE GAL has often been unlucky in her races, making her overall 1 for 9 dirt record at least a bit misleading; good effort last time in the slop and she took the worst of it two back when shuffled back to last on the rail and finishing too late in a good field.

EIGHTH RACE

SCIENCE FICTION far from the likeliest winner of this race but it does handicap more or less wide open and she has run better than it may appear in her turf starts since arriving in NY; this field is not as tough as any of her last four turf starts - though there are some lightly-raced fillies in here - and she is going to be a price. CHINA SILK didn’t run poorly after breaking poorly in a slow dirt race on debut then missed a lot of time; came back on synthetic and sprinted clear in the stretch after stalking the pace; 3yo filly has plenty of upside. SARATOGA

TREASURE is hard to overlook here based on her recent form and in many ways is the horse to beat here; closer needs at least some pace to develop but she has been firing lately.

NINTH RACE

MYAMANOI was no factor fist time out but that was obviously a tough spot and he was outrun to last there after failing to break sharply and was racing on at the end; takes the drop for a dangerous trainer. KING’S HONOR also debuted in that Structor race and was no factor then cut back and couldn’t impact in another solid race in his second start; gets needed class relief and has enough to get the right trip; HOSTILE WITNESS is slow on the way in but he had no chance in either of his first two starts considering the competition and he also has some early speed; prefer the Verrazano’s on turf and he rates to appreciate this class relief.