ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 2, CELEBRATEME

FIRST RACE

SAME KINDA CRAZY is just a solid turf horse that is feeling good and likes sprints. Prado returns and he was large and in charge the last time this mare won (3 back as the chalk). Small field equals a good trip for everyone. This post is fine and the Ramirez barn is 20% when returning a runner between 31-60 days. ASSAIL was right there with a furlong to go in her return try only to tire a tad late. Maybe she just likes this sod. Maybe the time off did some good. FALLEN LEAF has speed so there is that. Main pace foe might be the 5 but that one isn’t proven on the green. This mare lost her iron at the start in her most recent so there is your excuse. If the umbrellas come out maybe the playing field tilts her way as she is 3-1-2-0 on a wet track.

SECOND RACE

CELEBRATEME puts races together for the first time since February so that is a positive. She drops a notch in class and puts the blinkers ON all while drawing outside. She has won on this dirt before and figures to improve second off the layoff. MICAH’S GIRL is the big favorite at 2/5 on the morning line. Her most recent towers over these but there is a barn change now. We don’t see a recent work. This filly does love this dirt but we just don’t like super chalky runners that are switching barns. DARK TRICKS gets back to the dirt and maybe that is all she really needs. She has back class and a recent work. She could find the front end, right?

THIRD RACE

EVIDENCE exits a key race where 2 of 6 returned to win with Beyer speed figures of 49 and 53. Once again, he draws outside. His debut would have been better except he broke dead last. He has some tactual speed and goes second time on this dirt. LIKE YOU finished second in his debut at Saratoga. For many, that will be enough. Team Spatz is 16% with their new runners. The blinkers go ON. We wouldn’t be surprised if six furlongs is a good fit for this runner. JESUS’ TEAM is by a 17% debut sire (all sire stats are for 2YO’s only). His dam went 2-0-0-0. Lone sibling is 17-3-2-5