Golden Brown gets first run on closers

Unless Sunshine Millions Preview Day is your cup of coffee and two aspirin, your Breeders’ Cup hangover likely will go uncured the Saturday following the big weekend at Santa Anita. But that’s all right: A little weekend-after discomfort never hurt anybody and there are competitive turf stakes at Aqueduct and Churchill to soothe the body and soul. Nasty Thursday weather at both venues was forecast to give way to Saturday sunshine, but this time of year the turf won’t dry, and one should plan for sodden autumn conditions.

Artie Schiller

The connections of 5-2 morning-line favorite Caribou Club told DRF’s David Grening they’re unlikely to run if the grass is wet, so I don’t expect Caribou Club to participate. That crushes the price on likely second choice or close to co-favorite Frontier Market, who surged late and just missed to Caribou Club last out at Laurel Park. On the surface of things the Artie Schiller really sets up for a deep closer given the surfeit of pace players entered, and Frontier Market could be the right one, but I’ll take a shot with Golden Brown, who treated me right last summer when he won the Kent Stakes at 15-1.

In Gidu, Dr. Edgar, Voodoo Song, and Abiding Star, there just are too many need-thelead types for this pace not to be contested and demanding. The one contrary scenario I could imagine is Voodoo Song just shooting clear and going it alone, but I wonder if he doesn’t regress after hitting a seasonal peak in his most recent start, Oct. 19.

Golden Brown has been put through a measured six-start campaign while keeping mainly to New Jersey-breds, though in one of those restricted turf stakes he handled Irish Strait, who is of this same class of horse on his best day. I’ll take the position that nine furlongs stretches Golden Brown’s stamina limits and that this one-mile trip is better. He’s a forward sort of horse but can rate enough to sit back behind a duel and get first run on the deep closers, almost certainly at a fair price.

Commonwealth Turf

Pirate’s Punch was entered back in a Sunday race and since he’s never raced on grass he seems a likely scratch here, taking out one potential pace player. But the really important one is Knicks Go, who also never has tried turf and would surely lead if he winds up in this spot. That all has to do with Spectacular Gem, who has emerged as at least a minor regional force in his last two starts after showing promise last winter on the Fair Grounds grass course. I’d take the position that Spectacular Gem earned every bit of his Jefferson Cup win while setting a very legitimate pace, and it’ll be no surprise if he turns in a similar performance. Blinkers off and/or a rider change helped his cause last time, and I’d guess he’ll handle a soft course.

I feel like I have a solid grasp on most of the main and marginal contenders here, and my general sense is they’re mainly capped regarding talent and distance. A fresh face in the division holds appeal, and Mr Dumas jumps up to stakes competition after beating older first-level allowance horses in his most recent start. To be clear, he didn’t just beat them but really thumped 11 rivals while racing this nine-furlong trip over the Churchill course in September.

Mr Dumas got stuck down at the rail while racing on the lead, and not only held his position admirably but drew clear when nimbly cutting the corner into the homestretch, winning geared down. His Kentucky Downs sprint two back, his turf debut, also impressed, and this is a fresh, improving horse who could be a higher price than his morning line (several here will since the odds-point total goes way over what’s possible).

Atlantic Beach

The Yanakov barn regularly does unconventional stuff – like running Axiomo back in two weeks while shipping from Kentucky to New York and going dirt mile to turf sprint. Don’t mind that move. This is one of those hardened 2-year-olds who still probably can pop a good performance if the circumstances are right.

I swear he struggled to handle the Keeneland course when third behind the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint fourth- and second-place finishers. He wound up getting far too much of the pace at Kentucky Downs, and his difficult turf-sprint career debut was pretty impressive. There’s plenty of pace to help here, and the hope is he just sits a patient mid-pack trip and comes with a run.