ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 10, ONWARD

FIRST RACE

DARIA’S ANGEL has been most proficient over a mile but she ran well over this trip last time despite only being second-best, and she projects for the right kind of forward trip here as she makes her third start back from a short layoff; likes this track. MONACO PRINCESS a new stablemate of the top one and she is 3 for 3 in her career over this distance, including that top-figure effort in July when chasing down favored Blue Eyed Girl, who has won twice since with Beyers in the low-80s; good post on the outside and she has enough speed to keep things in range. MIDNIGHT DISGUISE was no factor when returned from the layoff in a tougher spot last month; closer needs some pace but she is making her first start vs. non-stakes company since winning the first two starts of her career as a 2yo.

SECOND RACE

OCEAN FIRE didn’t run particularly well in her second start when put on the lead over yielding turf but her other two starts on this surface are solid and she was game to get 3rd after fanning widest to the stretch last time, despite being no threat to BALON ROSE; getting better and has the tactical ability to take advantage of her inside draw. BALON ROSE an expensive purchase that has not panned out so far, though she has improved slightly from race to race; has had no real excuses in her last two while defeated by stablemates both times and will be a short price once again. TAKE TEN hasn’t made a start since early in January but thought she ran well when last seen while ridden conservatively and closing ground too late; has upside as she starts back off the layoff.,

THIRD RACE

SPINNING KITTEN won easily first time out and has done his best since while coming up short; exits a game try in a strongly run race and that may have been a better field than this one, though he faced older horses for the first time here. SPORT was rated inside for a long way most recently, and he tried gamely once switching around wide to the stretch in a race that held together up front; good fit here if he can work out the right trip, something he has been unlucky with more than once. QUALITY CHOICE a maiden on turf but has the figures to contend here and didn’t finish far back of SPORT despite racing wider throughout two starts back.

FOURTH RACE

OUR LAST BUCK dropping all the way down, finally, after failing to make an impact in three starts vs. much better horses since returning from the layoff; NY-bred gelding is about to turn six so the drop isn’t all that negative and his good race is going to be hard on this field. TIZANOXBOW has been concentrating on turf and has had some success, including that upset maiden win in June; lone dirt try came on debut and that was not a poor effort in a solid race for the level. CALL THE CAT has had his chances but he will occasionally run a race that would make him tough in here; not a bad try last time while wide with a look, before weakening late.

FIFTH RACE

SEDUCER is by an up-and-coming sire who has had success with his turf runners (winning with about 14% of turf starters) and she is out of a stakes-placed dam who posted both of her career wins on grass; work tab looks a bit light but she goes for a capable first-out trainer and does not appear to have landed in the toughest MSW field in the world. YLIKEDIS debuted at Laurel and finished behind a rival she will be meeting again here, but think she might have run the better race of the two while caught behind horses at a crucial point in the stretch; not sure how good she is but deserves another chance and has some pedigree as a halfsister to the talented Andina Del Sur. ESPRESSOANDACHECK a $600k purchase with plenty of pedigree being by a top sire and out of a mare who won multiple graded stakes on turf; Thomas has a nice touch with first time starters on turf.

SIXTH RACE

FLAVIUS a very well-bred colt with a couple of long layoffs already on his card but he has run well all three times he has hit the track and looks like a colt of some potential, while the others in here are what they are - and they are pretty good; ran an excellent race to become a stakes winner when last seen and has been training well in company with stablemate Instilled Regard, who also shows up here. HAY DAKOTA has been solid right along but he really did appear to take a step forward off the Servis claim last time while easily closing down a fast pace; tactical 6yo is dangerous right back. INSTILLED REGARD has made two turf starts so far, a good 3rd in the Grade 1 Hollywood Derby and a close 2nd to graded stakes-quaily Admission Office; better spot here off the layoff but he is not without something to prove.

SEVENTH RACE

MAJESTIC REASON in a better spot now than she was when this race was originally scheduled on closing day of the Belmont meet, as a couple of the main contenders entered the first time have not turned back up; improving filly finished a brave 2nd to the streaking Anna’s Bandit (five straight wins) two back and she earned a new top figure when gamely 3rd behind Come Dancing last time. PHILANTHROPIC made a promising debut last August with a troubled trip then went to the sidelines after making two more starts to no avail; buried maidens on the lead in her first start for Servis and then came right back to handle allowance rivals with ease; this is tougher but she is fast and still has upside. PINK SANDS is dropping out of a pair of graded stakes going longer and like her cutting back to this distance as she has sprinted effectively in the past; best closer in the field needs some pace.

EIGHTH RACE

GOLDEN BROWN is 2 for 2 on turf this year and while he is going to face a better field in his return to this surface, he looked good winning those races at Monmouth and he has the right running style for this race, which projects to be run at a fast pace; not sure he is good enough but he seems likely to be the right price in this race, where the favorites do not stand out. CARIBOU CLUB has won two in a row, including that Grade 3 last time when going first into a strong pace and holding off FRONTIER MARKET at the end; versatile in terms of trip and distance and his best race makes him tough in here. FRONTIER MARKET improved noticeably at the end of last year and he has managed to keep that momentum going in his three starts this year; finished a good 2nd in his first stakes try last time and came with a good run to close down a slow pace two back, something that shouldn’t be a problem here.

NINTH RACE

Liked TURNED ASIDE’s debut over yielding turf where he was in behind and had to wait for the winner to clear, before forging on late, and he really appeared to improve last time while sitting the right trip over what may have been a suspect field; like his tactical speed and his upside in this spot. FREEWHEELER made an impressive debut vs, fellow NY-breds and he finished gamely to be second-best to the talented Four Wheel Drive in the Futurity last time; puts blinkers on and projects to have some pace to attack in this spot. JACK AND NOAH was a bit hard to handle early but he showed some real potential when overpowering TURNED ASIDE in his career debut, and his early aggression may have cost him a better placing last time in the Futurity; needs to learn to settle a bit but he is going to be tough in here if he can get the right trip.

TENTH RACE

ONWARD didn’t break sharply in his debut on Travers Day and was then rated over toward the deeper inside paths early in a somewhat promising debut, then did not get the best trip or ride last time when stretched out to a mile; cuts back a bit with Ortiz returning to take the mount and he has more speed than it may appear. TOLEDO took money first time out and was ridden to get forward from his outside post, before rating off and then looking a bit green while floating wide to the stretch; finished gamely there to get 2nd in a debut that he can build upon. TAPAGE didn’t do much running first time out at Saratoga but he took a step forward last time while still looking to be a bit green early; well-bred colt has forward to go and has already earned a figure that makes him a contender in here.