ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 8, MOCHACCINO

FIRST RACE

A wide open affair to kick off this stakes card. TIMMY M. doesn’t have the Beyer speed figures of some of these but we think he more than makes up for it with current form and upside. Plus, he is proven on this sod. Rendon gets a leg up and he rode this horse to nice second only three back. We think this stalker sits behind the speeds and in front of the closers. SECOND MATE is consistent and goes for a top barn in Maker. We can discount that seven furlong try two back at Colonial because it is Colonial at seven furlongs. Works and timing of this race are just right. GALLEON MAST is five for nice when going 8 1/2 furlongs. Local tab is solid as are recent works. A bit worried about price though.

SECOND RACE

WILDWOOD’S BEAUTY is stuck on the rail going seven panels but that is it for the knocks. Plus, she doesn’t need a great break to win this. She is two for two at this tricky distance. She won her debut on this dirt. Her Beyer top of 95 came two back at you guessed it seven furlongs. LIZA STAR is feeling great. Can she make the jump to stakes foes? Anything is possible with team Walder. Added distance is the X factor. HEIRESSALL likes this distance and surface all while possibly drawing best. The layoff is short and she has worked three times since.

THIRD RACE

YES FOR LESS tried two turns on the grass for the first time two back and ran great missing by only a neck. He came right back on a new sod here and ran well again. We know a new turf horse when we see one. This gelding is a hard trier that has run poorly only once and that came when buried on the rail versus stakes foes in his third start. No more weight break is a small knock. CAPTAIN D has never run poorly, wants to pass runners, draws outside but not too far outside, goes for a 17% stakes barn, and lures Zayas (34% here with this barn). WHERE YA GOIN OWEN turns around in 3 days. Yikes? Well, if he runs then we are going to trust in a barn that is 33% in stakes races. Plus, we just don’t like the first time turf runners. PLATO is by a 2% debut turf sire. His dam was un-raced. One of two sibs won on the grass (another hit the board). GENGHIS is by the same sire as neighbor on the rail. His dam won her only turf start and earned 11K. This is her first foal to try the green. REBELDE is by a 1 for 9 debut turf sire (2 for 12 with all turf runners). His dam never tried the green. Lone grass sib is 12-0—3 for 10K.

FOURTH RACE

RICHARD THE GREAT is capable of triple digit Beyers but that was before the long layoff. His return try at a tough 7 furlongs and in the slop could not have been any better. He has worked four times since. If you made the case that he is actually better around two turns then we wouldn’t argue. He has some speed and draws inside. RED CRESCENT is just better in the last few months as long as you forget that race two back. Camacho gets a leg up today and he knows this gelding well. This horse likes this dirt and just ran a Beyer top on it. A small knock in that this barn is 0 for 9 in stakes but on the other hand that is a small sample size. ART G IS BACK often gets play and is capable of a big effort at any time. Yet to try this dirt is a small knock. Team Spatz is 30% turf to dirt.

FIFTH RACE

MUCH ABOUT IT comes in fresh and ready. We love her work tab. She is proven fresh while this barn is

27% when returning a horse between 61-180 days. We even see a good trip chasing whomever wants the front end. A small chance it is this filly. DIXIE PRINCESS is feeling good and loves this sod. She loves this distance too. Her most recent sprint was better than it looks. BIG DARLING just won nicely on this sod while missing a Beyer top by only a point. This barn is only 4% with their repeating winners though.

SIXTH RACE

HE HATE ME is just good. He didn’t get the best of trips in his most recent but that changes today. We love this outside post and his ability to pass runners. Race flow is fine and this barn is 33% in stakes. Note that bullet work at Palm Meadows on the 2nd. This barn is 21% when returning a runner between 31-60 days. JACKSON got steadied in his return try so out the window it goes. We rather like today’s cut back and surface switch. This colt beat Tampa stakes foes back in March. What if the layoff did him some good? He figures more mature now if anything else. His lone local start was a big fat W. ROYAL SQUEEZE is a hard trier that comes in off a short layoff and has some speed. You just know that Zayas is going to put this guy in the race early. Works are well spaced and this barn is 19% in stakes races.

SEVENTH RACE

LADY PANDA has tried nothing but the turf in her three race career so bonus points for that. Technically she is still a maiden after getting DQ’d in last and perhaps that helps her price today. Her turf breeding is great but her distance breeding is just as good or better. She has already won on this sod and adds a half furlong today. A better post today is also noted. If you think that AMERICAN GIANT is just better on the turf then it is easy to dismiss recent stakes try on the fake dirt. Trainer stats are solid across the board. We think this filly will like two turns. OUR LITTLE JEWEL is proven in a turf route something many of these can’t say. Trainer stats are just good. Race flow should be more than fair for this closer.

EIGHTH RACE

MOCHACCINO has some between the lines things going for her. She didn’t get much play in her debut and then only beat two home. Normally that is no big deal but this is a Pletcher horse. Why is this filly even in this barn? Her sibs are blah. Her sire fee is only 6K. Doesn’t seem very Pletcherlike, right? Well, she did cost 60K and that is 10 times her stud fee. We can forgive anyone’s debut. She did win her second start on this dirt in good fashion. We guess what we like best is that team

Pletcher sees fit to run this filly in a stakes race when they didn’t have to. There is a reason why he is Hall of Fame. Lastly, Zayas stays put. Could we be getting a price on this horse? Why, yes, so let’s make her our best bet of the day then. CECI VALENTINA just tried two turns for the first time and ran a Beyer top. We like it when horses do something different and do it well. Now she cuts back to a sprint. BIG AFFAIR has never run poorly. he draws the attack post for the distance, has some tactical speed, and keeps Rendon.

NINTH RACE

DADDY’S BOO is speed plus, plus, plus. Form cycle hints at better and we like fresh faces that end up here. Other speed isn’t as quick as this one so a front end breather is more likely than not. CHILLED MILK gets good race flow, draws inside, has never missed the board on this sod, and figures a better price than most. UNA LUNA gets to save all the early ground. Could she have the back of the pack to herself? If so, we have always felt that when that happens a horse can relax better which in turn helps their late run. MISS DEPLORABLE exits a key race where 2 of 5 returned to win with figs of 93 and 84.

TENTH RACE

KAUFY BEAN had to beat maiden claimers two back to break his maiden but he still did so as the favorite. His most recent was even better and that was after he broke 8th of 10. He draws best today and goes third off the layoff. SMASH FACTOR has never run poorly but is always double digits. He tried two turns for the first time last out and ran great. This barn is 18% with their youngsters. Bettors keep underestimating this gelding but we know a hard trier when we see one. ZERO SPENT stepped up in class to special weights and won in his second start. That is something you don’t see all that often. He only cost 11K. Versatile style is a plus and Jaramillo gets a leg up. AS SEEN ON TV has the best figs but has never raced in South Florida.

ELEVENTH RACE

TALE OF KANTHAROS is a turf sprint specialist that draws well and goes for a barn that is 29% with allowance types. Versatile style and this post go hand in hand. WONDER IN does have some upside with this being only his fourth start. He just ran another good one even though it was his first on the green. We even like his debut was back in April. He can pass a runner if needed. I’M CARDINAL is a 9YO that wants to teach a maturity lesson to the 3YO’s in here. He is good on any surface. He has won on this sod before and lures Jaramillo today.