ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 7, PIPESTONE

FIRST RACE

EARTHQUAKEDIRECTOR ran second behind the future winner Skynyrd in his penultimate start on the Tapeta, and is coming off a belated third on the grass. MIRIAM’S SKY checked in second for the third time in his last four outings when dropping back down to the level in his latest. SURE WOULD FOREST is realistically spotted off a victory over $25K maidens, with Da Silva taking over for the sidelined Fukumoto.

SECOND RACE

Droppers could dominate this $10K seller. MADISON WAY is halving in value and changing surfaces to the Tapeta, over which she weakened to third after dueling for the lead in her next-to-last outing for $25K. BELLE DANSEUSE is plunging from N1X company, while cutting back to a distance over which she’s questionable. TWITTER STORM faded to fifth last time out in a key optional starter on the lawn.

THIRD RACE

MASSEY HALL placed in each of his last two starts going five-eighths after flashing early foot. He could make all the running in this 6 1/2-furlong sprint, with Hernandez aboard for the first time. SOUPER CATCH battled three-wide for the lead before assuming command on the far turn and then tiring late in a solid effort around two turns on the inner turf in his latest. GROUNDHOG DAY rallied for second in each of his last two races over different surfaces, both under Da Silva.

FOURTH RACE

TIZ MY RIGHT shook loose up front before tiring late to third behind a next-out winner when moving out to a route on the inner turf a month ago. She could break through on the turnback to a sprint, in her third race off the bench. BETWIXTING attended the pace en route to a neck loss when dropping to this class in her improved second start Oct. 14. Long-time maiden QUEEN ANDHER COURT is a must-use underneath in the exotics.

FIFTH RACE

MR. RAINBOW, by the excellent speed/debut sire Old Forester, is the first foal from a sprinter who banked $142K. McKnight has strong numbers with maiden-claiming first-timers. EL CHAIRMAN is dropping from OS/$40K company to where he probably belongs, with Kimura taking over. MONEY MATTERS parlayed a lovely stalking trip into a runner-up placing when descending to this price three weeks ago.

SIXTH RACE

TARA DAWN finished second to a nice prospect in the rapidly-run Muskoka Stakes two back, but a wide trip led to her downfall as the 3-5 favorite in a subsequent route experiment. She’s had a little break heading into this OS/$40K sprint. STERLING SPEED missed the break before closing wide for second over an inside-biased track when Contreras rode her for the first time in an identical spot Sept. 28. ELEANOR POWELL and LOST CORSAGE are both by 16% 2yo debut sires.

SEVENTH RACE

PIPESTONE has worked well since a stalking second in a large field in her improved second race going seven-eighths Oct. 12. The daughter of the hot Munnings is a half-sister to three stakesplaced runners. COMPENSATE should be favored off a front-running second on turf to Cool Shadows, who returned to double up in the Princess