ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 5, AUTHENTIC

FIRST RACE

Despite uncertainty regarding the change in footing, turf-to-dirt front-runner VIA EGNATIA gets the call in this N1X mile. The likely pacesetter set wild fractions in a turf last time (:45.24 and 1:09.66) before fading. That was his first start in three months. Gelded since, the speed of the field, come and catch him. Must acknowledge, however, both previous dirt starts resulted in last-place finishes. Tepid choice only. HARDBOOT also is uncertain on dirt, his only two previous starts on the main track were not great. But he has been running okay against good company on turf, and if the top choice falters, this race could unfold in favor of the closing style of HARDBOOT. Five-time winner SHADES OF VICTORY showed signs of life last out finishing third in a highly rated starter allowance.

SECOND RACE

GOLD ARROW was only prepping in a dirt sprint last month; she showed speed and faded. The maiden sibling to G1 winner Battle of Midway stretches back to her preferred two-turn trip and merits horse-to-beat status based on runner-up finishes early year. Sired by Medaglia d’Oro, the switch to turf should be okay. SO MUCH HAPPY finished second last out in a similar maiden special-weight turf route, while VISUAL MAGIC stretches out with two sprints under her belt.

THIRD RACE

Based on his romping win last out in a $10k claiming sprint, PAPA TURF gets the call in this starter allowance/optional $12.5k claiming sprint. He improved since being claimed three back by Jeff Mullins, but faces challenges including a pace rival directly to his outside and a less-than-stellar record on this surface. All seven wins by PAPA TURF occurred at Santa Anita, he is 0-for-13 at Del Mar. Still think he is the one to beat. If the top choice is compromised by his pace rival, the race could fall apart in favor of route-to-sprint TWIRLING TIGER. The latter ran well last time at one mile, he also ran well at DMR in summer, and should get pace to run at. Contender rallying from behind.

FAST COTTON is the aforementioned pace rival for the top choice, drawn directly to his outside. FAST COTTON dominated $10k claiming sprinters last out and looms an obvious threat right back.

FOURTH RACE

An impressive U.S. debut by GUITTY two months ago stamps the 2-year-old filly the one to beat in this N1X turf mile that is a prep for the G3 Jimmy Durante in three weeks. GUITTY overcame a slow start in her maiden win, was freshened since, and looks like the best finisher. G2-placed POWERFUL ATTRACTION drops in class, and stretches out and tries turf, both for the first time. The “fastest” in the field based on her sprint fig two back, she is facing easier. Progeny of her first-crop sire Commissioner are 2-for-9 on turf. SAVVY GAL won her career debut long on turf on this course in August, followed by an okay fourth in a stakes race. Class drop, lightly raced, contender. CONVOLUTED has the top laststart figure which was earned finishing third in a turf mile stakes at Golden Gate.

FIFTH RACE

First-time starter AUTHENTIC looks tough in this maiden-special-weight for 2-year-olds. The Bob Baffert-trained Into Mischief colt posted back-toback bullet gate works recently at Santa Anita, and figures to be heavily favored. He is a sibling to a pair of modest winners, his dam is Flawless, who won her career debut by more than 13 lengths for trainer Bill Mott in May 2010. AUTHENTIC stands out. DOMINANT SOUL posted fast works at San Luis Rey Downs and figures to show speed. Sired by Dominus (13 percent debut winners), the colt is a sibling to one minor multiple winner. Although his dam Forest Melody was a two-turn race mare, the sharp works by DOMINANT SOUL suggest he will sprint. JEFF N JOHN’S THUNDR broke slowly and split a five-horse field at long odds in his debut. Going into that race, he trained like a colt that needed a start according to workout analyst Andy Harrington. Now that he has had an out, improvement expected. MOON MISCHIEF, sibling to G2 Del Mar Derby winner Nolde, raced evenly in both sprints, finishing second and fifth. He is

a work in progress. First-time starter ABSOLUTE UNIT might be ranked too low by this handicapper. A sibling to G3 sprint winner Silent Bird, ‘UNIT showed gate speed Nov. 4 (work viewed on XBTV).

SIXTH RACE

The career debut by LOOKIN TO GET EVEN two months ago on this turf course was outstanding, and sets up the 2yo second-start filly for a maiden win. Bet to 4-1 in the mile race, she broke slowly, trailed the field, saved ground on the far turn, angled out and unleashed a blistering 22.83second final quarter mile to miss by only a length and one-half. The winner was Guitty, the allowance-race selection earlier in race 4. Big debut by well-bred LOOKINTOGETEVEN, who might be a good one. OVERJOYED ran well in her debut in a stakes race, then did not care for the main track second time out. She is back on turf, and sure to improve. She is a sibling to graded winners Land Over Sea and War Story. AWESOME ELLA broke slowly and rallied wide for fourth in a promising debut. That was a sprint, she attempts the difficult feat of winning a route second time out off one sprint. LADY TIMMY HO makes her U.S. debut as the stranger danger.

SEVENTH RACE

In a competitive field of 3yo claiming sprinters, POSTERIZE gets the call. He ran super last out, dueling through a blazing pace after breaking from the rail and hanging tough to deep stretch. That was 6.5 furlongs, now he shortens to 6f and moves to an outside post. PRINCIPE CARLO finished in front of the top choice last out, one could argue he ran every bit as well. Wide through the turn, he covered a lot of ground to miss by only a head. ‘CARLO has something the rest of the field lacks. That is, a win over the DMR track. Actually, two. He won here in summer, and last fall as a 2yo. PLATINUM NIGHTS drops from a pair of starter allowance races against older, into an age-restricted claiming race. Three starts at DMR produced three in-the-money finishes. UNION RIDE defeated the top pair last out with a perfect trip saving ground.

EIGHTH RACE

Just six entered this turf mile stakes for 3-yearolds, it is a deep field. PROUD PEDRO showed promise early this year and gets the call as the best finisher. The lightly raced colt was sidelined four months with a neuromuscular condition (stringhalt), but trained well for his comeback and figures to fire for trainer Leonard Powell. BOB AND JACKIE also returns from a layoff, this is his first start since winning a turf stakes in December. He was sidelined with a bone injury. The comeback colt might not be completely cranked up for his first start of 2019, but he has been working with good company (G2 winner Neptune’s Storm on Oct. 25), and he has a touch of class. In his maiden win on this turf course last fall, he defeated subsequent G1 winner Omaha Beach. CARNIVOROUS is a five-time winner who won a pair of entry-level allowance races/optional claiming on this course in summer. Claimed last out for $80k, he “wants” to beat you. DUELING defeated older allowance rivals last out at Fresno, turf should be okay. OCEAN FURY finished 10th a week ago in a G2, this is an easier spot and his Sept. 27 allowance win is the top race by any in this field. He might be ranked too low by this handicapper. GOLDEN BIRTHDAY also figures in the hunt. Lots of choices in this deep field of six.

NINTH RACE

First-time starter STONE SECRET and dropper DEFENSE WINS rank as the top choices in this $100k maiden-claiming sprint for 2yos. STONE SECRET debuts for Baffert with apparently decent works and a five-pound apprentice allowance. The colt’s bullet gate work Oct. 10, in company with subsequent debut winner Auberge, was decent enough. DEFENSE WINS has been in tough spots in his four-start career. He finished second to next-out graded winner Collusion Illusion in his debut, then third in a G1, and unplaced in a G1 route and sixth last out in a highly rated maiden race. ‘WINS drops in for a $100k tag, returns to the Del Mar surface on which he placed his first two starts, and will roll from off the pace. UNCAPTURED HERO flashed speed and tired in his MSW debut. With a class drop and a race under his belt, improvement expected. He is trained by Richard Baltas, who also entered first-time starter MR. NASTY. The latter looms an upset candidate based on apparently decent works at San Luis Rey.