ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 7, SUMMER SPICE

FIRST RACE

FAIRY LINK tried the boys last out and then didn’t get much play at almost 12-1 so we can easily dismiss that try. Saez has ridden this filly before and the results were Beyers of 77 and 78 (versus tons tougher). There isn’t much pace in this race so this horse shouldn’t be too far behind whomever finds the front end. That sounds like a good trip to us. SPEED TOO TUME has some speed from time to time so why not now? Prado gets a leg up and he is picking his spots well. Second time this sod can’t hurt either. CHASING HELICITY gets in light and goes third off the layoff. She draws much better after being stuck in the 12 hole last out. If only this filly got more pace to set up her late run. FOR KICKS and two others exit a key race where 2 of 4 returned to win (only available Beyer is 68).

SECOND RACE

GAMBIT ran OK off the layoff but that was going six furlongs and we think he wants more. That seven panel try three back was solid as was elongated sprint two back. This gelding sheds weight for this and goes for a barn that is 26% second off this type of layoff. BLESSD BY THE BEST is feeling good but has lost twice as the favorite in his last three starts. His last race came back key when 2 of 6 returned to win with Beyers of 59 and 59. New barn is 29% off the claim while most recent work is well spaced. JUST FOR CHUCKLES has a grinding style that might work better at today’s distance. He draws better today after being buried on the rail last out. MORE THAN STRIKING is by a 9% debut sire. His dam went 25-0-3-5 and earned 40K. Lone sib raced in Mexico and is 11-3-2-1 and earned 8K. WARRIOR SPIRIT is of interest in supers.

THIRD RACE

CODRINGTON drops into restricted claimers and that alone will interest many. Second time this sod is a plus but more so Oritz up who just missed with this filly two back. AGUAS COLORADAS won her debut on this sod going two turns and that is never easy. Then she beat first time winners in her second start. Why can’t she continue to improve? She is bred to love the grass. New barn is 2 for 3 off the claim and they lure Prado for this. BELLO PORTE has speed and has won twice on this sod. Fresh speed is our favorite kind of speed and this filly does draw inside where that first turn comes up quick. We always say the turn is your friend if you are a speed horse in a route race.

FOURTH RACE

BLACK PEPPER didn’t do much previously but we don’t think the turf is his best surface anyway. Those dirt sprint tries 2 and 4 back were very good. Ortiz gets a leg up and he is 2 for 5 with this barn. STARSHIP APOLLO missed a Beyer top by 3 points last out and that was first out for Navarro. This gelding obviously loves this dirt as he has won nine times on it. RAY’SWARRIOR looks to be the speed. His last race Beyer is the best of the bunch. There just isn’t a lot of pace in this race so this gelding should garner an early breather. This gelding has some back class and drops in class for this. So he wins easy, right? New barn is 0 for 7 off the claim and they turn this horse around in only 12 days. Oh, a new jockey is also part of the mix.

FIFTH RACE

MARGIE MUSIC has improved her Beyer speed figure in three straight starts. We think her most recent race was even better than it looks. She was trying a new sod while facing first time winners and then was marooned in the 12 post. All that and she still beat half the field home at 59-1. She even gets some pace to chase while drawing well. DESCENTE tried money allowance foes at Woodbine the last two times that she tried the grass and those are always good fields. This filly was right there at the 1/8th pole in both. This filly has some tactical speed to help with the trip. Can she ship in from Canada and run well all for a new barn

though? SASSY JUSTICE just won for fun and did so on the local sod. Now Ortiz takes over. Recent work is well spaced. The bad news is that this barn is 0 for 15 with horses that won their prior start. KARENINA exits a key race where 2 of 4 returned to win (only available Beyer is 68).

SIXTH RACE

WICKED SOLUTION tried two turns on the grass in both starts to date and they came against better. She actually beat half the field home in her debut. Works are perfectly spaced for her return and connections find a much easier spot all with Oritz at the helm. FAST FRACTION is another horse that knows nothing but two turns on the grass. Her most recent was just good and this barn is 20% on the grass. BETTER BEGIN showed promise in recent turf tries but draws worst today. The blinkers go ON and she gets in light so there is that. Turf breeding is solid.

SEVENTH RACE

SUMMER SPICE just didn’t fire on the grass last out but also got very little play when sent off at 61-1. That dirt try two back at this distance tells us that things are OK. We like that Saez gets a leg up but more so the great trip this gelding is going to get chasing all the speed. We’re gonna get a good price, right? LOVE NEST draws inside and loves to pass runners. He has won half of his local starts and is only a 3YO. His last two races on this dirt and at this distance resulted in Beyers of 65 and 79. What if he is better now? Class drop hints at money run. FRENCH QUARTER just got an 80 Beyer on this dirt. He did so first out for Maker. Oritz now takes over and he is 30% for this barn locally. The bad news is that there is a ton of speed in this race.

EIGHTH RACE

AMELIA’S WILD RIDE is a proven turf sprinter that likes this sod and draws inside. Race flow is fine. When last seen on this sod this horse was facing much better. MARCELINO has won half of his local turf starts. We like that he has worked three times since his most recent (as of this writing). New barn is 20% off the claim. POCKET CHANGE goes for Jason Servis and escapes stakes foes. Is this class drop too much? Ortiz gets a leg up and he knows this horse well (wins 6, 7, and 8). Gap in works from December 7th to the 21st is a bit alarming especially combined with the big class drop.

NINTH RACE

PROMO CODE tried a tough seven furlongs in his debut yet won nicely nonetheless. Then he beat first time winners while going two turns for the first time. He should have no problem with today’s 6 1/2 furlongs. Works for Pletcher are perfect. OUTSHINE is the other Pletcher runner. This one draws best and is already proven in an elongated sprint (four back). Again, works are perfectly spaced. GLORY OF FLORIDA is feeling great. He tried the turf two back for the first time but got into all kinds of trouble at the start. We love his last race. He is going to be a good price.

TENTH RACE

DONEGAL ACES needs only to repeat his turf debut two back to win this. Works are well spaced. Saez rode in big turf try and he returns for this. Class drop is noted. This gelding was eased in his most recent but we see horses return from that and run well all the time. FINE SPIRIT didn’t fire off the layoff and we have no idea why. Local turf tries 3 and 4 back are solid. Prado gives it a go and we like that more than anything. TRUMP’S KITTEN gets a weight break today and did run OK last out. What if he is a slow learner? Turf breeding is legit.