ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 8, JEFAZO

FIRST RACE

SAVEDBYTHEBELLE isn’t the likeliest winner of the opener, but she could be a bit dirtied up and will offer some value for Michael Trombetta. Daughter of Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver and multiple Grade 1 winner Belle Gallantey likely found six furlongs too short in her career debut, then might not have cared for the mud when outsprinted along the inside. Interesting that she shows a recent bullet workout (presumably while wearing new blinkers). I WAS LOOKING UP earned field’s best Beyer Speed Figure when an even fourth against some solid-looking maidens at Churchill Downs. Might be ready for another forward move on fast going and should be closer to the pace this time. While Savedbythebelle saved ground, TONAL VERSE raced in the six path in her career debut and still finished with interest for the place. Bred to improve with experience, she goes out for Motion barn that is 2 for the last 7 (29%, $4.19 ROI) with second-time starters in Laurel maiden special weight dirt routes.

SECOND RACE

BETTY’S GOT RYTHM makes first start over the circuit after rallying belatedly behind the two favorites in $20,000 maiden seller at Parx. Makes third start of the form cycle and might be able to stay a bit closer to the pace as she stretches out for the first time.Conner lands here instead of Classy But Sassy. CONGRESS HALL finished ahead of four of today’s rivals when no match for favored Win Then Grin. Experience at this distance helps, but you’ll likely have to accept a shorter price than the 28 to 1 from last time. Toledo lands here instead of Tippy Tippy Tay. QUEEN OF CAUSE is a dangerous contender dropping in class and stretching out in distance. Finished ahead of two next-out winners (including 51-Beyer graduate Lilly’s Lil Gem) when a rallying fourth sprinting and the half-brother won five routes.

THIRD RACE

MAKE IT A DOUBLE isn’t the biggest horse in the fight, but the filly showed some ability dusting off maiden claimers over a muddy track last time out.

She prompted the pace inside, took over along the rail on the turn and widened at will in very fast time for that class level. She’ll be tested here and figures to be under the gun along the rail. MAGICAL LUNA wired two next-out winners (fifth-place finisher Lady George returned to earn a 73 Beyer against ‘n1x’ allowance company at Penn National) in first start against non-maidens. Gonzalez-trained filly is in razor-sharp form and figures part of the pace picture as well. OLIVE’S BUMPA couldn’t go with well-meant stablemate going a mile last time out. Think turning back in distance should work nicely. ILCHESTER CHEETAH drops in class as the lone three-time winner in the field. Beautifully-drawn outside.

FOURTH RACE

METAL MAGICIAN, a $22,000 yearling that resold for $37,000 in May after breezing a furlong in 10 3/5 seconds, is out of five-time stakes-winner Jazzy Idea (won at distances ranging from 5 1/2 furlongs to one mile on turf and dirt). Gonzalez barn is 6 for the last 17 with juvenile debut runners in non-claiming (maiden special weight and waiver) dirt sprints, and 4 for the last 7 with all first-time starters over the past 90 days. Chiappe lands here instead of CHARM CITY BAND. That one’s dam won the Gin Talking and the Maryland Million Lassie as a precocious juvenile, and this colt chased some hot fractions at a demanding seven-furlong debut distance. SUPER E’s lack of early speed is troublesome and it’s worth noting his best race came on turf. Bullet workout for this indicates he can pick up some pieces if the pace is fast. Cintron lands on Glacier Park instead.

FIFTH RACE

JUSTWAVEANDSMILE took a ton of money for his career debut and showed good tactical speed to press the leader from the outside. After making the front in the stretch, it appeared he lost some of his focus and was run down by a late-kicker. He finished ahead of two next-out winners (the fifthfinisher returned to graduate with a 69 Beyer),

goes out for barn that is 5 for the last 10 with second-time starters on dirt, and the addition of blinkers may help him keep his head in the ballgame. Expect him to be up and on the pace again.

TOY was no match for the top one, but returns as a first-time gelding and the recent bullet workout makes you think the son of Maryland Juvenile Filly Championship winner Plum can move forward. McCarthy lands here instead of Deshackled.

TASTES LIKE PLAID up from the maiden claiming ranks after showing improved early speed second time out. Thought he did good work in his debut as well when off slow and taking dirt before angling four wide into the lane.

SIXTH RACE

ROOKIE SALSA took an awkward step soon after the start of recent optional claiming heat and ended up far back along the inside on the backstretch. He steadied in between horses in midstretch, altered course back to the inside and finished willingly behind next-out 74-Beyer performer Stone Courageous (second in the Maryland Juvenile Futurity). Stakes-winner is listed as a first-time gelding, takes a strong class drop and should get some pace to attack. BODEFLEX put away two pace challengers en route to maiden claiming win at Parx over next-out 69-Beyer graduate Here Wego ($20,000 maiden claimer at Parx). Not sure I like the 62-day layoff since that race, but he has some speed and will be forward again. BOAT OVER THE HILL came from well off the pace to score earlier in the month. Like the cutback in distance for him, especially considering there should be solid fractions for him to attack.

SEVENTH RACE

A bit disappointed that FOURTEEN CARROT failed to seal the deal at odds-on last time out, but he moved into the teeth of a fast pace before flattening out in the final furlong, and his tactical speed should serve him well here. Purchased for $10,500 out of the Besecker dispersal, he’s now with Richard Sillaman, who is 3 for 11 (27%, $9.07 ROI) over the past 30 days. WILD WOOD NORTH was very anxious in the gate, then was outsprinted along the inside before failing to change leads in his debut. That $20,000 maiden claimer at Parx has already produced two next-out winners (runner-up Baby Bull returned to score by open lengths with a 60 Beyer) and the gelding now gets the blinkers and Lasix makeover for barn that is 5 for 10 with a $4.14 ROI over the past three years with 2-year-old dirt performers adding Lasix. GRAYS THE BAR was under the whip a half-mile from home before finishing evenly in local debut. Addition of blinkers coupled with more distance might get her into the game earlier.

EIGHTH RACE

JEFAZO couldn’t get the hat trick, but he was far from embarrassed in the Richard W. Small Stakes when finishing just ahead of next-out 92-Beyer performer Adventist (second at a big price in the Queens County at Aqueduct). Distance and class relief might be just what the doctor ordered. TAPPIN CAT was bumped hard at the break and steadied in between horses when pulling on the first turn, but he soon settled into a nice rhythm and was best on November 30 (despite being disqualified from the win). Might have a bit more tactical speed than the top pick. MUSICAL AMERICA ran well against next-out 97-Beyer winner K Choice at Keeneland three back, then might have found the nine furlongs too taxing most recently at Churchill Downs. Lots of minor awards on the page.

NINTH RACE

Although HERE’S A JETPACK worked out a nice inside-out tracking trip last time, he wasn’t able to overcome the slow pace up in a race that held together on the front end. Eight-time winner might be racing back into shape as he makes his third start following a summer freshening. SWING STEP had his chance as he was the one pushing that tepid pace before faltering just a bit near the wire. He’s been in good form since the blinkers were removed. The last time IWISHIWASPECIAL moved from a route to a sprint, he cracked the exacta at 28 to 1. Got right up on the pace routing last time, but think shorter is better right now. May need some pace help up front.