ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 2, NOT ROCKET SCIENCE

FIRST RACE

MOBEATYABAD never got a breather in his debut on the grass versus better at the Meadowlands. He got some play in that race at 7/2. Lots and lots of local works should have him ready off the short layoff while this barn is 38% when returning a horse between 61-180 days. This barn is 33% going special weight to maiden claimer. KEYLARGO is by a 12% debut sire (all sire stats are for 2YO’s only). His dam went 8-1-1-2 and earned 19K. Lone sib is 8-0-0-2 and earned 5K. We really like the work tab for this first time starter and we think the price will entice. FLAMING HOT has speed and good connections. He has lost his last three starts as the favorite though. BUMPA is by a 7% debut sire. His dam went 69-14-9-9 and earned 210K. This is her first foal to race. MAMAIGOTTHIS is by a 7% debut sire. His dam went 23-4-1-2 and earned 114K. Of 3 sibs to race, 2 won with 1 a multiple winner of 42K (won 2YO debut).

SECOND RACE

NOT ROCKET SCIENCE tried two turns and the turf for the first time previously and ran great losing by less than 2 lengths at 7/2. Now this gelding cuts back to an elongated sprint on the dirt which is fine with us. All four sibs beat winners. What if this gelding just loves it here? Recent bullet work bodes well. ZIEG got a 65 Beyer in his second start and it came on this dirt and at this distance. Centendo rode then and now. FIFTY OVER was walked off in his debut but that was over a year ago. What worries us the most is that this horse that cost 225K yet makes his second start for 25K. The good news is that he faced a very good field in said debut as that race has come back key when 3 of 7 returned to win with Beyer speed figures of 97, 81, and 80. Another two runners returned to finish 2nd with figs of 76 and 74. Recent work is a bullet (as of this writing). PALIMPSEST will have his backers and we can’t fault them. HEX exits a key race where 2 of 7 returned to win with figs of 76 and 69.

THIRD RACE

KING DADDIO just won easily and has always liked this dirt. This barn wins at 18% with horses that won their prior start. Hello favorite so let’s move on. J’S FLASHY HALO didn’t do much last out but he was shipping in and didn’t get much play when sent off at almost 9-1. He should be ready to improve second off the shelf while all of his best efforts have come on this dirt. OX TROT has won on this dirt before and draws well for this. MERANGO TANGO has the best figs but not sure it matters much in that he last raced in 2014.

FOURTH RACE

ALL GOOD TIMES ran a Beyer top only two back. Her recent stakes try at GP was solid. This filly likes this dirt and has a slew of local works. EXPECT INDY is hard trier that has hit the exacta in 21 of 38 starts. Her recent stakes race wasn’t much but perhaps she is acclimated to Florida now. DON’T FIGHT IT is the value. We think this 3YO will love today’s added distance. Lone sibling to try routing is 9-3-1-2 doing so (earned 40K). Her distance Tomlinson is a strong 364. This barn is 27% sprint to route. We kicked around putting this filly on top.

FIFTH RACE

TROPICAL DRIVE ran OK last out and now goes second time this sod. This filly has some tactical speed to help with trip and post. We like this barn on the grass. IRISH ORB tried two turns and the grass for the first time last out and ran her best race to date. Most runners improve the second time they do anything. CENTSLESS DRAMA has some speed and draws inside. What if she needed her return try to some extent? Prior turf tries resulted in Beyers of 54 and 50. Those certainly fit here.

SIXTH RACE

Six of eight runners exit the common race something you don’t see all that often. CAVE RUN has

always liked this dirt something he proved once again last out. That race came back key as 2 of 4 have returned to win with figs of 76 and 75. We like that this gelding has worked twice since his last race. LUDINGTON got a lot of play in said common race but only beat one home. He was shipping in from Illinois. He has a recent work and draws best today. Second time this dirt is a plus while that effort two back was quite good. BE GONE DADDY ran evenly off the layoff and has every right to improve today. He likes todays’ seven panels at 5-2-1-1. This barn is 18% second off this type of layoff.

SEVENTH RACE

SNOW LION beat over half the field home in his debut and it was on the grass in New York. He was washed off the green in his second start but still managed to beat half the field home. This gelding should love two turns on the grass. Our lone concern is why the class drop. MR. MAURICE has hit the board in four of five turf starts with two of those coming around two turns. His most recent was a Beyer top and we think he can improve second time this sod. SOMMER LEGACY should be a huge price. Let’s say he needed his most recent as he was shipping in from Mountaineer. His last three turf figs are 51, 43, and 45. What if he can improve upon those just a bit? Puts him in the running for the exotics, right? STEALADEAL is by a new turf sire. His dam went 2-0-0-0 on the green. Two of four sibs won on the grass. PAUL CANE exits a super key race where 4 of 5 returned to win with Beyers of 88, 66, 56, and 82.

EIGHTH RACE

EMMETT’S DREAM just ran OK off the layoff. This barn is 24% second off this type of layoff. This gelding has some speed and gets off the rail. He adds a half furlong and maybe that is key. TALK TO THE

MEDIA just ran better and it came first on this dirt. This gelding is 15-1-8-0 on a fast dirt. He is often a good price. GIANT TRICK showed speed last out but we think he is better with a target. That should not be a problem today. New barn and rider are noted.

NINTH RACE

DANCER ON THE BEACH is by a 9% debut sire and a 10% debut turf sire. His dam went 3-0-0-0 and never tried the green. This is her first foal to race. This barn is 2 for 5 with debut runners going a mile or longer. Works are well spaced. PRETENDANT got a little play in his debut even though he was facing special weights going two turns on the green. He beat zero home but got needed race experience. Trainer stats are good across the board including 25% special weights to maiden claimers. LORD BYRON tried tougher in his debut. He is now a gelding. Recent works are noted while his turf breeding is solid. An early tote check is in order. MAGNOLIA BLVD is by a 1 for 74 debut turf sire. His dam went 5-0-1-1 and earned 4K on the green. Lone turf sib is 5-0-0-3 for 5K. AGRIPINO is by a 0 for 2 debut sire and 0 for 0 debut turf sire. His dam was un-raced. Both sibs won while lone to try the turf is 48-4-3-6 and earned 76K. SHACKLEFORD DANCER is by a 8% debut turf sire. His dam went 10-0-1-1 on the green and earned 19K. One of six sibs won on the grass with another two having hit the board.