ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 7, KELLER’S GOLD

FIRST RACE

DECARCHYS DREAM has an even running style when going 5 1/2 furlongs that might work better at today’s 6 1/2 furlongs. She draws inside but isn’t buried on the rail. We think she has some sneaky speed and this is a great spot to use it. THE MALLARD QUEEN ran well when first on this dirt previously so why the short layoff? A barn change also? Stevens stays put and that calms us. The equipment change can’t hurt and this filly does draw best for this distance. SWEET SOPHIE GRACE drops in class and that alone could be enough. Musical jockeys continues and that isn’t our favorite though.

SECOND RACE

NIGHT AT THE OPERA is the fresh face from SoCal and he has some longer local works on his current resume. He has fresh speed and that is often the best kind of speed. Main pace foe is buried on the rail. This barn shows a flat bet profit with new horses, sprinters, and their claimers. FULL OF GOLD just ran well and did so versus first time winners. He has speed but perhaps his most recent hints at a stalking gear. The rail draw hurts. Recent route races hint at elongated sprint ability. YEREVAN SONG goes second time this dirt and has a recent well spaced work. He tries claimers for only the second time. Somebody is going to get first run on the two speeds and with it a very nice trip. Could it be this guy?

THIRD RACE

DECOSTER is by a 11% debut sire. His dam went 4-0-0-2 and earned 13K. All 4 sibs won and all 4 beat winners. Three sibs earned over 100K. This gelding is a 5YO so debuting at this level seems logical. Lots and lots of works. PAITASKA has some speed and adds a half furlong while going second off the layoff. A quick turnaround is noted. There isn’t that much pace in this race. S S TANK ran OK in his debut versus better and then got some play in his second start while facing much easier. He broke 7th and did next to nothing. Was that race too bad to be believed? One more shot for this 6YO who gets a jock switch to Cruz.

FOURTH RACE

ONLINE REQUEST is just better on a real dirt surface. That’s our story and we’re sticking to it. This mare has route speed on the cut back to elongated sprint so she shouldn’t be too far behind whomever wants the front end. Curious as to price. PASZ THE PEPPER likes this dirt and has experience at this distance. Those tries 1 and 3 back certainly fit here. Can she bring her A game here off the van trip from New Mexico? BALLERINA HEADLINE has a grinding style that might work better at this distance. In fact, she has won at today’s distance before. She draws outside and gets a barn and jockey change.

FIFTH RACE

WHISKERJULEP did face 10 foes last out and was right there with a furlong to go before tiring. This filly draws nicely and gets in light. Other speed is a worry but she lands in a good barn off the claim (Chad Ferguson). NOT TO CODE is by a 3% debut sire. Her dam was un-raced. Lone sib is 15-0-1-1 and earned 7K. Lots and lots of works while last few are well spaced. We like that this filly is a 4YO. TIZ A DREAMER is the fresh face from NoCal.. Gap in works from November 19th to December 13th is of some concern. She does get in light today with the apprentice up. SURF THE TURF exits a key race where 2 of 7 returned to win with figs of 39 and 45.

SIXTH RACE

MISS BOISTEROUS draws the attack post and goes second time this dirt. Her most recent was a nice even effort going only 4 1/2 furlongs. Connections turn this filly around in less than seven days and they are 1 for 1 when doing so (paid $11.80). Martinez is 2 for 6 with this barn locally (44% overall). EL BELL CAMP has some speed and adds a half furlong. New barn keeps Stevens and are 11% off the claim. That was a nice try two back at today’s distance. The bad news is that this filly has lost her last four races and all of them as the favorite. WHIRLING just ran well off the layoff and returns at the same distance. What if this mare just loves an elongated sprint? New barn is 0 for 12 off the claim.

SEVENTH RACE

KELLER’S GOLD veered out at the start in his local debut previously and that is tough to overcome going only 870 yards (3.95 furlongs). Yet he still beat a few home. Now he drops into claimers but is unlucky as this field is very tough for the level. This gelding normally has some speed and has run well in an elongated sprint before (11 back at Emerald). Small barn is noted and that means this gelding gets all the attention for trainer Carlos Moreno.

ROYAL PRIVACY just ran better and that 75 Beyer is the best last race figure in this race. What if he just hated two turns two back? His distance tab is an OK 6-1-1-1. Tactical speed helps the trip. CREATIVE ART is a 10YO old now and Father Time has caught up to him to some extent. There wasn’t much pace in his recent start so we thought this guy would have been closer to the front end but he was 4th early and then finished there. He does add a half furlong today. He turns around in only 8 days and that is something we don’t see very often for team Davis.

EIGHTH RACE

There is a lot of speed in here and we rated this race speed plus, plus, plus. It is an all closer trifecta for us starting with HONOUR APRIL S RULES who gets back to the turf and is always a big price. She did get Beyers in the low 50’s two and three back but those were going only 7 1/2 furlongs. She has hit the board going a flat mile in 4 of 9 starts. She gets in light and could light up the tote with a great trip. YOU GOT THIS only lost by 3 lengths three back on this sod. Her most recent was a solid second. She can pass runners and that is the key.

POCO SUENOS draws more inside than our other picks. Those turf tries 4 and 5 back were solid. Samuels gets a leg up and he won EZ with this mare only three back. Penchant for less is the main knock. MISS PERFECTA is by a 8% debut turf sire. Her dam went 3-0-0-0 on the green. Lone sib never tried the green.