ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 4, BACI

FIRST RACE

HONEST GINGER makes her third start off the layoff and stretches out from a sprint to a route for her local debut, luring leading rider Gallardo; figures to be prominent from the start from her inside post, and given the uncertain race flow in this opener. PATRIOTIC ENDEAVOR also goes to two turns, and this does seem to be her best game; didn’t get all that much pace help last time and was completely up against it two back in terms of race flow. SPEEDING STARLET was unable to threaten in her latest but this drop in class (from open company into a restricted claimer) and price (from $6,250 to $5,000) certainly gives her room to improve; could prove dangerous given some help from the front runners.

SECOND RACE

CPL. DIONICIO disappointed at a short price in his latest but he didn’t run a bad race at all, making a premature move due to a controlled pace and flattening out late; he’s better than that running line might indicate and he’ll be able to prove it given a better pace scenario this afternoon. PRISON PADRE has been away nearly 1 1/2 years but he has to be considered a threat given the Beyers he was posting before the hiatus; barn does well with new faces and this gelding should get a decent pace to chase, with several speeds to his outside. THREENINETYTWO figures to be part of the pace here, coming off a an abbreviated sprint which featured a great deal of speed; can rate if need be, and that versatility should enable him to work out a trip.

THIRD RACE

SILENT MISCHIEF was 9th, beaten over 21 lengths against lesser, and while that doesn’t endear him to handicappers it’s the trip that tells the story, as he was caught wide early before making a middle move to contend for the lead, understandably faltering late; prior try was solid, as he closed to finish 2nd to the lone speed in a paceless race, and he also ran well in his local bow three back. HAY HAY MY MY has been turfing of late but he’s run well enough on the main track to make him a threat against this modes group of maiden claimers; will be looking to come from off the pace but he has enough speed to get position from the start. IMPERIAL IVOR goes long on the dirt for the first time; he had to contend with a wide post last time and with a controlled pace two back.

FOURTH RACE

BACI held well for the place in her latest after she prompted the pace from the start but she could find herself on the front end in this one, which seems to be a little light on early zip; looms very dangerous if able to get clear and control the pace on a loose lead. BY TH LIGHT OF DAY is kin to three winners, including Away Westward, who won four races on the turf; the dam herself won her own debut on the grass and this filly has shown some speed in the mornings. CHICA DIFISEL was off the board but ran deceptively well in that last try, closing some ground late in a race which set up best for the speeds; could prove a threat in the lane with the right set up.

FIFTH RACE

ONLY IN AUGUST stretches out for the first time but may appreciate the added distance, especially if the fractions are controlled, as expected, and she works out a forward trip; against the flow in her last couple but she should be well spotted from the start here. FIDDLER had no chance in that last one, caught 14 lengths off the leader in a race lacking speed; she’s been plagued by slow starts but if she can get away with the field she may find herself in a nice stalking spot at this extended distance. WEST HORIZEN also has room to improve off her latest, when caught too far off the pace, if she gets a better set up; been in search of the elusive third career win for some time but surely can be considered a threat for exotics, at the very least.

SIXTH RACE

UKNOWTHEDRILL makes his debut in a seemingly soft spot, as this appears to be an average field for the class level; unraced dam’s lone starter posted her lone win on the grass but gelding has been training well on the main track, showing speed in a few of those breezes. GRAN OLD PARR, also only the 2nd starter from an unraced dam whose

sibling won only on turf, is another new face with some decent works showing, shipping over from Gulfstream for high-percentage connections; that likely means a short price but he’s tough to leave out given the relative weak field he meets for his debut. BEE BY THE SEA gets the rail again after some traffic cost him in his first start, another race where he drew the inside slot; also gets Lasix for this, and with a step forward he could prove a threat, though a clean trip is vital.

SEVENTH RACE

The distance is the main concern for C’ERA UNA VOLTA but if he is able to establish a loose lead without much pressure in the opening stages he may get brave and steal this; he was game in defeat in his latest, his second start off the layoff, and if he runs to his best figures he’s capable of wiring this field. GETTININTOMISCHIEF has the speed to stay close from the start, and that will be an edge if the pace is in fact controlled; he did post a win at this distance three back, when he was able to stalk the loose speed and run that rival down late, and that’s the type of trip he could get here. CREDIT CYCLE has speed but can also rate, and that versatility is a big plus, but he will have to deal with a wide post and he could be one of the favorites in here.

EIGHTH RACE

TEMPLE MOUNT didn’t break well at all in that last one and that cost him, as he’s at his best when he’s able to stay close in the opening stages; off the board two back but that was an effort that was better than it may look, as he broke from a wide post before pressing the pace in a race which set up well for the closers. BUENO BUENO BUENO is obviously going to be a handful here on the class drop, as he was facing much better before heading to the sidelines; this move into an $8,000 claimer clearly can be construed as a negative after the break but he most certainly would be no surprise. YEI YEI was hurt by a slow start and an unfavorable race flow two back but he has otherwise run very well in his recent starts; wide post no bargain but he has the tactical speed to get position and could fall into a stalking trip.