ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 7, FETCHING

FIRST RACE

BUSTIN BIEBER is by top juvenile first-out sire Bustin Stones (wins with 22% of his 2yo debut runners) from a dam who won her debut by over 17 lengths in the slop before going on to win six more races on the grass, and this colt is a full-brother to 2yo debut winner R Precious Stones; will take his win-early pedigree in race full of first time starters. COMPETITIVE HERO is by Competitive Edge, who has been an excellent win-early sire (about 21% wins with 2yo first time starters) and debuts for a trainer who has gotten off to a fast start at the meet; dam went 1 for 33 in her career but is a sister to multiple stakes-winning NY-bred Meese Rocks; has apparently been training in company with stablemate Effiniy who is drawn outside with Saez. MARKET ALERT doesn’t have a ton of pedigree but he did put in a sharp breeze from the gate on June 7 and his trainer is underrated with first time starters - Ryerson, past five years, 2yo first time starter, MSW, sprint: 5 for 33, 15%, $3.99 ROI.

SECOND RACE

ALL OTHERS FOLLOW debuted at Tampa in early May and looked green throughout that race after being bumped at the start and getting a four-wide trip around the track; never really accelerated in that race but was racing on gamely to the end, suggesting that she may have needed one and that more distance may really suit her. IN FRONT couldn’t hold after being allowed to cut the pace going nine furlongs in her second career start but she ran well in that spot and backed that effort up pretty well when getting wired in her next race; half to Breeders’ Cup Turf winner Magician should be able to get the distance and she did not have a great trip in her last start at Gulfstream. CURLY WURLY looked green in her debut while no threat to the talented Stolen Holiday; dam was a stakes winner on turf for these connections and is a halfsister to multiple Grade 1 winner and $5 million earner Gio Ponti.

THIRD RACE

FLEET WARRIOR was claimed out of a top-figure win for $30k last April and has not been very competitive since while starting at big prices right along; maybe he just can’t run anymore but he is getting a major rider change to Saez for his first start off the layoff and he can contend with this group if he shows up with his good race. Save the debut win from Talent Scout - way back in 2017 when he was trained by Baffert - OTHER THINGS EQUAL has run the two fastest races in this field and he is also the most lightly-raced horse in this group, both positives when you’re dealing with low-level three-life claimers; takes a big drop in class for his second start off the claim and sprints for the first time since his career debut when outrun behind Mind Control. LATIN LOVE BUG has struggled to win races but he fits well in this field and is cutting back after showing surprising early speed going a mile in his last start; can run late in his first start for Parker.

FOURTH RACE

CREATIVE STYLE returned from a layoff here last week and put in a good finish to be gaining late ground after being steadied out to last at the start; facing a good field for the level but he has the recent race that his main rivals lack and the stretch out is no problem. SHADOW RIDER prevailed in a game duel when in vs. claiming company two starts back then stepped back up to no avail in his most recent start; consistent closer is a nice fit here but needs a little pace to develop. HOFFENHEIM owns some of the top figures in this field and he is getting significant class relief for his second start back following a long layoff; approaching the two-year anniversary of his last win, though he has only made five starts since taking that Delaware allowance with a triple-digit Beyer.

FIFTH RACE

MORALITY CLAUSE debuted here last May and came up short at the end after encountering trouble at the start and losing position, then had similar trouble in her second start when jammed up behind a slow pace and settling for secondbest; makes her 3yo debut on the drop for a good layoff trainer. MISS YOU BLUES ran well in all three starts sprinting on turf last year while facing better; makes her first turf start since last summer as she returns from the layoff and does so on the drop while reuniting with Rosario. SHANNY GO NANNY is by a versatile sire and out of the Grade 1-placed dam Featherbed whose best foals to date are Illinois Derby winner Dynamic Impact - also a winner on turf in his career - and Drop Shot, a turf sprint winner with a 92 Beyer a few years ago; Martin won with a first time starter here last week, also for this owner. ALWAYS ALRIGHT gets Saez for her debut and she has pedigree for this being the first foal from three-time turf winner Paddle Board, who was also Grade 2-placed on synthetic in her career.

SIXTH RACE

MISS JAK scratched from a $16k claimer on Sunday and turns up in this spot looking to rebound out of a pair of defeats as the favorite, though she didn’t run poorly in those races while facing better; was no match for Archumaybaby when making her NYRA debut in the Videogenic last March but returned later in the year to win easily at this level; drops off the layoff but will have to be ready vs. what shapes up as a solid field for the level. MO FLASH has run well in all four starts for Englehart since being claimed, including that win in the slop when last seen back in February; consistent mare has tactical speed as she returns to the level of the claim. QUEEN KAHEN is capable on both turf and dirt and she has also been versatile enough to win with or without the early lead; gets significant class relief here after getting in way over her head vs. a stakes-quality field on turf last time.

SEVENTH RACE

FETCHING finished behind a couple of these same rivals in her final two starts of 2019, though she had no real chance two back when rated last behind a modest pace and then having no choice but to follow OUT OF TROUBLE up the inside in the stretch; has more upside than most in here and she looked good winning her career debut over course and distance, before returning to win again two starts later going long. OUT OF TROUBLE sat the right trip and then won easily once getting clear running up the rail last October then had an excuse vs. similar two starts later when steadied in the stretch; has faced better since then and has a recent race in the form of a solid effort on dirt off the layoff. Like the top one, A LITTLE FAITH is lightly-raced with upside and she showed some potential last year while winning two of her three starts sprinting, including her debut over this distance; returns from the layoff with forward to go.

EIGHTH RACE

SUMMER BOURBON worked out a clean trip but couldn’t make a late impact behind front-running Won and Done off the layoff; may be set for better in his second start back with faster races to get to and that race should have him sharp as he catches most of these off the bench. EYE LUV LULU is faster than this field with his good race but he seems to have clearly lost a step recently, especially on fast dirt, even while facing better; 11-time winner has hit the exacta in 25 of his 55 career dirt starts and drops for his first start away from Servis in quite a while. KAZMANIA will need to improve assuming some of the others show up with their best but he is underrated and has shown up every time so far; returns with blinkers on and is versatile enough to run from anywhere.

NINTH RACE

CHIMNEY ROCK looked good winning his first turf sprint at Saratoga last summer then ran well in three straight stakes only to settle for second-best each time, including the Breeders’ Cup; strong effort last time to keep the speedy Jack and Noah in range and then close him down late ahead of a good field. TURNED ASIDE was defeated twice by JACK AND NOAH last year but he ran well in those races, most notably in the Atlantic Beach when on the outside as JACK AND NOAH rode the firmer inside paths; not an easy spot right off the layoff but he appears to have a lot of potential. JACK AND NOAH used his speed effectively as a 2yo to win two of his three starts sprinting on grass, including that Atlantic Beach with an 83 Beyer; good effort last time when just failing to hold CHIMNEY ROCK; expect him to come out running once again.

TENTH RACE

HERWAZE moved early to go challenge for the lead and wound up in a long duel clear of the others before weakening late in her debut last November; ran well in that spot and can do better with natural improvement. TOPAZ BRIDE sat a nice trip tracking in behind the front-running winner in her career debut last September then was no match for the 1-2 finishers in there when the running started and was left behind in 3rd (placed 2nd); logical returning to turf for her 3yo debut. WALL EYE made one start last summer at Saratoga sprinting vs. a good field and weakened in the stretch after chasing wide around the turn; starts back on the drop and should be tight enough after breezing a mile at the end of last month.