ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 9, ON MARS

FIRST RACE

This maiden turf mile is a split of race 3, and EASTERN OCEAN is the one to beat. He finished a creditable second last out in a turf mile despite fighting with his rider much of the trip. Hard-held inside, shuffled on the far turn, he rallied late along the rail to miss by less than a length. The horse that beat him returned to finish third in a stakes race. Assuming he is more settled now that he has a recent route under his belt, EASTERN OCEAN can win if he can catch LANE WAY. The latter meets easier while stretching back to a route and trying turf after banging heads with tough rivals including subsequent G1 winners Nadal and Charlatan. ‘WAY finished third all four starts. No such rivals this field, pedigree fine for turf. Sired by Into Mischief, he is a sibling to multiple turf winner Orecchiette. Potential favorite will be tough if he can ration his speed. Since racing resumed last month, jockey Flavien Prat is 21-for-54 on grass (38 percent). TAPITUTION makes his career debut for a top stable that won a race last week with a debut colt going two turns (on dirt).

SECOND RACE

PASITO drops to the rock-bottom N2L claiming level after a tough trip vs. better; the mile turf race she exits produced two next-out winners. PASITO won a maiden-claiming dirt mile two back that probably would be fast enough. This race originally was scheduled for six and a half furlongs, but changed to seven furlongs presumably to attract sufficient entrants. PASITO and TRUTH PREVAILS both shorten from routes. VIOLENT SPEED returns to the site of her career-best effort, that was a maiden-claiming romp by more than 10 lengths on this dirt track in winter. That was her only start on “fast” at Santa Anita. SINDY’S REVENGE is a new face in a weak race, making her first start in California and first start in four months. She won her career debut at Turf Paradise in January, so she does fire fresh. REAL GOOD DEAL misfired last time as the favorite at this class level, without a visible alibi. SYBIL’S KITTY has speed, she was good enough late last year.

THIRD RACE

This maiden turf mile is a split of race 1; stablemates MUCH MORE HALO and WAR PATH get the call over high-figure New York shipper TIBERIUS MERCURIUS. The runner-up sprint comeback by ‘HALO was solid, he has a history of improving second start back and his only previous turf route was solid. Since racing resumed last month, Bob Baffert and Mike Smith have teamed to go 4-for-7. WAR PATH returns from a four-month layoff with sharp works, proven form over this course (third by a length in a January), and a switch to the circuit’s top turf rider. The 4-yearold TIBERIUS MERCURIUS could vie for favoritism based on New York form that includes a maiden “win” (disqualified and placed second). The colt’s speed figures top the field, this is his first start in California and first since transferring to trainer John Sadler. NO SLO MO finished a better-than-looked fifth in his career debut and enters with an upset chance. He saved ground, rallied inside and galloped out big on the backstretch. The son of Uncle Mo is believed to have more speed than he showed first out. Live at a price.

FOURTH RACE

First-time starter BIG FISH debuts with a solid workout pattern and a win-early pedigree for a trainer that does well with juvenile first-time starters. BIG FISH entered a similar Cal-bred maiden race June 5, but scratched from that race, which was won by well-touted first-time starter Bolden. BIG FISH has worked well. He reportedly showed speed May 13, worked in company with older multiple winner Wild Bean on May 20, and finished strongly June 10 (work viewed on XBTV.com). He was sired by Mr. Big, whose juvenile progeny are 4-for-13 first out. Finally, trainer David Hofmans is 4-for-15 with debut juveniles the past five years. Looks like a “go.” TOUCHDOWN BROWN, sibling to three winners, capped his work pattern with a bullet gate move last weekend in :47. Although debut juvenile progeny of Cairo Price won just 9

percent, trainer Rafael Becerra won with 2 of his last 4 (wins in 2018, 2019). WHAT’S UP SURFER posted a fast gate work last weekend at San Luis Rey for trainer Peter Miller, who is 2-for-4 with debut juveniles already this meet. Miller and Prat are 12-for-21 since racing resumed last month. LEMON ZINGER makes his career debut for a win early outfit.

FIFTH RACE

FENGARI has improved this year as a 5-year-old maiden; he figures as the one to beat dropping to maiden-40 after a runner-up finish for maiden 62.5k. He has tactical speed and he can finish. Easiest chance yet. SLY drops into a maiden claiming race for the first time, first start in three months. He split the field in his comeback sprint in March, a highly rated race that produced two next-out winners. Two turns is fine. MOST SANDISFACTORY goes long after four in-the-money finishes in sprints. The Miller-Prat combo is tough to beat. STRUGAR moves up in class after a decent runner-up finish in a maiden-20. The horse that beat him returned to finish second against winners; the third-place finisher returned to win next out. LEPRINO drops in class, while CAMPS BAY is a 14-start maiden with ability. Deep field.

SIXTH RACE

BRACE FOR IMPACT is overdue for a maiden win, runner-up three dirt sprints on this track including a creditable effort last month. ‘IMPACT pressed a fast pace, made the lead in the stretch, fought back inside and missed by a length. Solid effort. Depending on how much pressure he gets from the surface-switcher two stalls to his outside, front-runner ‘IMPACT enters as a logical favorite. However, BLUEGRASS PATRIOT showed promise in his career debut in the same race as the top choice and is likely to improve. ‘PATRIOT tucked inside just off the pace, took dirt, got bumped in the stretch, kept digging, and finished less than two lengths behind the top choice. Solid debut by ‘PATRIOT, who has an upset chance with a race under his belt and six-pound weight break as a 3yo. TOO LATE is the aforementioned frontrunning turf horse who has enough gas to pressure the favorite. TOO LATE trains on the dirt, his pedigree is fine for dirt, and he should be dueling for the lead.

SEVENTH RACE

SMILING ANNIE wheels back in six days and moves up in class to Cal-bred allowance after a decisive starter allowance win on this turf sprint course. The veteran mare benefits by the pace scenario.

Not much speed signed up, she can make the lead or press easy fractions. Trainer Mark Glatt does not employ the “back-in-a-week” maneuver often. When he does, they usually fire. Glatt’s last seven that wheeled back on short rest produced 2 wins, 1 second, 2 thirds. HARPER’S GALLOP set a solid pace winning a turf mile last out over at least two next-out winners. ‘GALLOP has speed to be forwardly placed. NOOR KHAN returned from a layoff with an okay maiden win; the lightly raced filly has room to improve. Also-eligible LOUD LOUD MUSIC has speed; trouble-prone DONUT GIRL has run races that put her in the hunt. Look for her late.

EIGHTH RACE

Dirt is something new for MALAKAI MOXIE, but his third-place finish two back on turf would be fast enough to handle this Cal-bred maiden-50. First-time claim tag, first-time Prat. First-time starter GRAZED MY BISCUITS launches his career for a winning stable in a field without much depth. HOOP DREAM needed his comeback, his debut three starts back puts him in the hunt.

NINTH RACE

ON MARS is sitting on a maiden win second start back. She had been off three months when she stretched to a route last time, did not break well, then rallied for second behind perfect-tripper Good tin gs com ink pink. ON MARS ran her final quarter-mile in a solid 23.71 seconds, and if she runs two alike should be tough to beat at low odds. Most probable winner on the Friday card, it appears. ROCKIE CAUSEWAY is a Giant’s Causeway Cal-bred making her career debut around two turns. This stable typically races maidens into condition rather than fire first out, but popped last summer at Del Mar with a debut turf router (Savvy Gal). Also-eligible CASSIE BELLE has enough speed to establish position despite an outside post; BELLA D has improved each successive start. TOO HOT FOR CURLIN, stablemate of the top choice, ran well finishing only a length and a quarter behind ON MARS last out. TOO HOT FOR CURLIN might be ranked too low by this handicapper. She is a contender.