ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 3, UNBRIDLED JOHN

FIRST RACE

PLINK FREUD has had ten cracks at it without coming through and she failed when dropped to this level for her 2019 finale; made a wide move to contention in that spot before flattening out and then was just outfinished for the leftovers as the field bunched up late; has the best races to get to and expect her to be tough if ready off the layoff. FUSI 0-7 on turf and finished behind PLINK FREUD in her most recent turf start late last year; nit the board in her first four starts on this surface, including a solid effort going a mile at Saratoga last August while showing speed. CEMETERY V I P raced very greenly in her debut last November and was off the layoff when failing to make an impact vs. MSW rivals here three weeks ago; drops for the first time with more room to improve than most in this field.

SECOND RACE

MENTAL MODEL came back from the layoff on turf and, while he wasn’t winning that race, he did wind up in some traffic in the stretch after riding the rail all the way; trainer has gotten off to a slow start at the meet so far but would expect her horses to start moving forward with races and this gelding has the dirt form to be tough in here. INSIDE INFO made his dirt debut as a 2yo in the Aspirant then returned from the layoff on the drop last time and won easily after contesting the early pace; logically spotted right back for a trainer who has gotten off to a strong start at the meet. MINE THE COIN started out with some promise but missed time along the way and didn’t get the maiden win until January, where he sat a nice trip going a mile and won easily; has not been competitive in three starts since but she was contesting the pace in her last two dirt starts and then tried turf to no avail off the layoff.

THIRD RACE

UNBRIDLED JOHN dropped in class for his first start off the trainer change here on opening weekend and lost early position from between horses, before finishing up well far too late to be a factor; can be tough in here if sharper for his second start back. FROZEN ACCOUNT caught a sloppy track on debut and he raced very greenly in that spot before finishing with some interest to be a no-threat 3rd; has also caught wet tracks in his two starts since and is getting the right class drop here making his first start for Martin and his first as a new gelding. STREET DANCE debuted in the same race that the top one exits earlier in the meet, where he was no threat despite racing on gamely all the way; adds blinkers for this and does not appear to be facing quite as strong of a field.

FOURTH RACE

ABIDING STAR ran at this level over the inner turf last May and dominated a field right on the front end, after which he went on to place in stakes at Delaware and Mountaineer, and then win one at Parx, all with nearly identical figures; has excuses for his final two starts of the year as he tried a difficult cut back in the Rainbow and then was contesting the pace from the outside in the Artie Schiller on a day when the inside was the place to be. SIDING SPRING made his two most recent starts on dirt but he is clearly better on this surface and come back at the right level while making his first start off the claim for Morley; was in good form on the grass throughout 2019 and his tactical speed plays in this race. NOBLE THOUGHT won on both turf and dirt at Fair Grounds last winter before being taken by Maker, for whom he finished a good 2nd to Devamani in his first start off the claim; has been in too tough on this surface since and gets the class relief he needs for his third start off the layoff.

FIFTH RACE

FRENCHIE FROU FROU debuted sprinting on dirt early in the meet and made a little run into that race after breaking slowly, only to flatten out late; switches to turf off the claim and she has the pedigree to handle it being out of the mare French

Breeze, who is a sister to Grade 1 turf winner Mirth and whose lone career win came sprinting on the grass. QUANTITATIVBREEZIN a first time starts for a hot trainer/rier combo and she appears to have landed in the right kind of spot, assuming she can run a little; Central Banker has been a much more effective dirt sire but he is pretty versatile and this filly is a half to Mrs. Orb, who has recently been on quite a run on dirt but was effective on grass earlier in her career. SARATOGA LOVE came up empty off the layoff and drops right in for the tag for Clement; ran okay vs. better horses a couple of times as a 2yo and can obviously factor in a race like this, though she will likely be a short price.

SIXTH RACE

SINGULAR SENSATION faces a long layoff but she improved noticeably to break her maiden in the slop last June and she finished an excellent 2nd to Ratajkowski when last seen in August at Saratoga; earned a field-best 83 Beyer for that effort while just falling short of a rival who won her next two starts, including the Empire Distaff, and recently came back to win the Critical Eye in her first start of 2020. HOLMDEL PARK didn’t run poorly on turf off the layoff but that may have been a race just to leg her up; went turf to dirt to break her maiden and she has faced much better in her three main track starts since. MAKINGCENTS rated the break and wound up losing position to the back of that field in her second start then stretched out to a mile and won easily when last seen, despite only earning a Beyer of 59; needs to get faster but has more upside than most in this field.

SEVENTH RACE

DISCRETIONARY MARQ has been first or second in nine of his 17 starts on turf, all of them sprints, and he has been competitive with many of the main players in this field right along; won off the layoff last year and has the tactical speed to get the right trip in this spot. DOWSE’S BEACH a 13-time winner who showed little rust as an 8yo last year while winning three of his last four starts; tough with his good race but has some questions to answer as he switches out of the Servis barn for his 9yo debut. FAST GETAWAY looked good winning first time back last year then didn’t find the winner’s circle again, though he did hit the board in five of his six remaining starts while earning solid figures; contender but Rice is off to a bit of a slow start with many layoff runners appearing to need a race.

EIGHTH RACE

SONNEMAN was outrun behind a fast and contested pace at Gulfstream last time but he came with a good finish to close that race down, and he wasn’t a confirmed one-run closer prior to that; has had promise from the start and he looked good beating a solid field two back over this track; trainer change shouldn’t make much of a difference. TOY comes in a little light on figures but he has clearly improved since stretching out in distance and his tactical speed should play in this race; game effort to overcome some stretch traffic last time.

INFORMATIVE has been placed in some tough spots while improving slowly but surely and he looked good breaking his maiden at Aqueduct in his seasonal debut while having to wait for heavily-favored Continuation to clear before getting his run; got in over his head in the Gotham and Matt Winn following the victory and he had no chance with Tap It to Win last time.

NINTH RACE

Though we might see MAGNOLIA’S LADY on dirt for her second start but she debuted on this surface and ran quite well in a race she appeared to really need; Rice excels with second time-starting maidens and the added distance of this race likely benefits this filly more than it does her main rivals. HELENE JACQUELINE made her turf debut on the same race as the top one and finished a very good 2nd after having some trouble getting clear in the stretch; threat right back and will likely be a better price that that rival this time. TOWERING GAZE was a bit green early in her debut after breaking well from the rail, and she finished gamely for 3rd after having to force her way through on the rail in the stretch; half-sister to two stakes winners has forward to go for an excellent trainer.