ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 4, HARBOUR MASTER

FIRST RACE

A solid 11-race Sunday card brings a close to a 5-day race week with a couple of turf stakes (races 8 and 10) serving as features. The forecast calls for possible thundershowers, but hopefully the rain won’t be enough to move turf races to the main (all selections here made for turf ON). Siding with the likely favorite, RATIFY, in the noon ET opener; there’s not much opposing speed in here, and he’s back as the runner-up in the same kind of spot for $25k mdn.-claimers; best effort does this. Right alongside, GUACO ran fairly well in his first start off the A.Sanchez claim; gray dude capable of closing effectively. LE COSTE outran his 42-1 odds last out, but maybe it wasn’t that much of an aberration; well drawn to trip out nicely here.

SECOND RACE

Gotta assume MONY comes very well-prepped after being regrouped by Wesley, who assumed the training of this $385k purchase sometime after he came highly touted in his first-and-only in March 2019; properly placed vs. these Fla.bred MSWs. DISCREET TUNE has shown speed in both of his off-turf sprint tries; hoping to get a first opportunity over grass when sailing clear early on this stretchout. Either of the De La Cerda first-timers, SINISTER or JUST LIKE MIKE, could be capable of helping to fill out the tricks.

THIRD RACE

Drop to this bottom-open level might be enough to get TROPICALITY back to her winning ways; steady performances Beyer-wise and otherwise weren’t enough to seriously threaten since her late-Feb. score for an N3L condition, but she may’ve found the right group here; sneaky rail trip under her HOF jock is on order. PAYNTER FEST has been favored in 3 of her last 4 and probably will be again today when exiting a ‘beaten’ triumph; Barboza pretty good (32 pct.) with last-out winners. DARLINDIVA turns back ever so slightly out of $10k Tampa routes; difficult apples-to-oranges gauge.

FOURTH RACE

Tons of early speed in this two-turn N2x alw. route to set the table for HARBOUR MASTER, who now makes the third start of his form cycle after giving futile chase in a couple of pretty solid groups; patient ride from Luca can produce him late; call him the day’s best. GOLDEN DECISION also stands to benefit from a swift pace up front; 6yo likely needed his latest. FRENCHMEN STREET may be fastest of the fast but is unlikely to get a breather when pushed by the likes of LAHINCH, THUNDER RIDE, and SHINY COPPER PENNY.

FIFTH RACE

Probably safer to say that FIBER OPTIC is more likely to be claimed yet again than to win again, although one occurrence certainly won’t preclude another; valued commodity who jams right back in for the open $12.5k has won 3 of her last 4 and probably adds to that when ‘rented’ by Sancal before heading to another new home. SOLARTE owns a smidg of class and could be right there if the top pick doesn’t fire. SPEED STAR will be looking to take over from GLORY ROLL after both go sailing off from their outer boxes.

SIXTH RACE

Surely there was a little ‘bounce’ to the step of LOVE NEST following that gigantic score (and an 86 BSF) over bottom-rung open milers, and now he’s back in for a reasonable $8k after middling starter-alw. routers; well-timed move from Berrios can do this. WAR GIANT hit the skids in a hurry after defeating alw. types in mid-March; new barn (D’Angelo) worth noting after his 1-5 jaunt for Saffie. CONGRATS THIS returns for the same price for which he was claimed in late May.

SEVENTH RACE

YOUNG RAYMOND gets cut in half by Dubb and Maker, an aggressive move that should allow the gelding to fare better when returning to 3yo-only company; stalking trip under Zayas finds him primed once they wheel for home. CONGRATS THAT (no dam-side relation to Congrats This in the previous race, haha) surely will be asked for speed when leaving from the one-hole; this is only a negligible raise out of ‘beaten’ ranks, for what that’s worth. The speedy FAST LOADED won his lone turf try, but he’s probably not the same horse he was in December, as this desperate class drop suggests.

EIGHTH RACE

Flashy comeback triumph by KELSEY’S CROSS in the Ginger Punch points her out as the one to beat in the In the Breeze, even with a number of others having shown themselves capable at this level; sufficient amount of opposing speed to help her kick. MIDNIGHT SOIREE did have some traffic trouble when fourth in the key 6/6 race; parting of the red seas after mid-packing and saving ground would help here. BELLE LAURA was merely terrific in her first start for Avila and deserves a crack at something like this.

NINTH RACE

She’s a girl taking on boys in this 2yo allowance dash, and yet PRINCESS SECRET might simply take it to them when tripping out nicely as the outside speed; came well-backed when blowing doors vs. some nice fillies in her early May debut. FAMOUS GENT closed resolutely to win at 2nd asking; fact there’s lots of speed to his inside really might help this gray colt down the lane. PAPETU won for straight maidens, as opposed to several of these others entered off mdn.-claiming victories.

TENTH RACE

Landmark kind of record-setting score by FACTION CAT in late Feb. at Tampa equated to an eye-popping 109 BSF and earned him 4+ months of bench time; knowing the way Georgina operates, he’s liable to win right back with a similar type of effort after having been given an appropriate amount of down time; tote price won’t be very attractive, though. CRYOGENIC and/or KRSTO SKYE can kick home to take part in the verticals. (Clearly LADY’S ISLAND is a standout even vs. males if the Umphrey is forced to the main track by weather.)

ELEVENTH RACE

A couple of near-misses by TARA strongly suggest the Arindel homebred is capable only with a little more luck; could be Gone With the Wind today after being carefully rated through the opening stages by Zayas. DOLL COLLECTION returns as a beaten odds-on favorite in her 4yo debut; daughter of the great Groupie Doll will need to step it up a notch here. LADY BOSS stretches out when going turf-to-dirt; probably not a bad idea.