ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 10, GOLDEN BROWN

FIRST RACE

PARETO OPTIMAL is the first starter out of an unraced dam but trainer Chad Brown of course gives this firster immediate credibility; will need to work out a trip from the hedge but given clear sailing he figures tough under jockey Nik Juarez. BRANCO MARIA makes his turf debut for Michael Stidham, who excels with 2nd time starters; dam was a turf winner who was best going long, making it more likely this colt handles this surface and distance. SUMMER TUNE has the benefit of turf experience, having run 2nd in a solid try in his debut, a sprint; goes two turns here but trainer John Stephens has strong numbers with stretchouts, and this gelding picks up Joe Bravo.

SECOND RACE

EVAN’S NICE NOW has the benefit of the rail, which could prove a big advantage given the relative lack of pace in this race; if she’s able to break cleanly and is aggressively handled from the start she may be able to shake loose, as she comes out of an abbreviated sprint and two straight races which featured a good amount of pace. PAINTED IMAGE has been racing on turf, and in routes, but while this may be viewed as a prep she does have enough speed to stay close, and that will be an edge if the race flow develops as expected. KNIGHT TALES is another with the early zip to stay close from the start; barn’s runners usually need a race here off a break but this filly does seem to be in a very good spot today based on her speed and figures.

THIRD RACE

TAN AND TIGHT has steady grass figures and makes her first start for trainer Michael Stidham, who is always tough in turf sprints; inside post and tactical speed add to the appeal, as does the presence of Bravo. AWSUM ROAR is a turf/sprint specialist, and her best recent figures give her strong credibility in this spot; have to be able to overlook that last try but the dull effort can be attributed to the fact that she didn’t have early position there, and that’s a big part of her game. PRETTI TRICKI is a statebred meeting open company but she is a proven grass sprinter and trainer Rory Huston does well with same; tactical speed should mean she’s well spotted from the start.

FOURTH RACE

BRIMSTONE could potentially be the controlling speed, as this is not a sprint loaded with pace, and the fact that he goes from open claimers at Belmont into a restricted claimer for $5,000 represents a sizable drop in class; very sharp work last week adds to the appeal. AIKEN PREP doesn’t have the best of win rates but he was posting steady figures prior to the break last year; dangerous if he’s able to run to those Beyers in his first start since October. MONTELEONE cuts back from a route at Penn National yet he figures to be prominent from the start from his inside post; a forward trip would give him the jump on the stone closers if the pace is in fact controlled.

FIFTH RACE

W W ARCHIE went down as the favorite when last seen, at Tampa, but he ran a decent race in defeat, and he also earned a Beyer which makes him the one to beat in this sprint; hails from the barn of high-percentage trainer Jose Delgado, who does well with horses off this type of intermediate

break. WENDIGO comes out of the same race as the top pick but lost his best chance when he was away slowly; he didn’t break well in his debut, either, but stands to improve if able to get away with the field today. LOOK OUT JAYCE was run off his feet in a pace-filled statebred maiden claimer at Belmont first time out, unable to keep pace after breaking from post 13; lots of room to improve today.

SIXTH RACE

ELEGANT ROSE is another live runner from trainer Jose Delgado, shipping from Belmont and landing in a sprint where she should be able to use her early zip to her best advantage; she was far back on the wire last time out but was never able to make the lead, and if she can get to the front today, as expected, she figures to turn in a much better effort. POSTINO’S QUEST has more speed than she showed in her last few starts prior to the layoff and with today’s expected pace scenario and her inside post she should be more prominent from the start; may be able to last for a large part of this given a forward trip. TARALLUCCI was outrun in the early stages of her first start off the layoff, when in the same race as the top pick, but she did show some late interest; needs to stay closer in the opening stages.

SEVENTH RACE

INDIAN BUZZ nearly pulled off a big upset in his first start on the turf last time, setting a quick early pace and gamely continuing to the wire before just missing; that was a promising effort, and one he can build upon here, especially if he’s able to set a more controlled pace from the start, something he should be able to do given the relative lack of speed in this field. PRETENDANT faded when in against richer in his latest but he’s a big threat here if able to run back to his prior Beyers, posted at Tampa; positional speed should mean he’s not far off the pacesetters. GATOR POSSE was off te board when moved to the claiming ranks last time out but he ran into all kinds of trouble and that cost him his best chance; expecting a much better effort here, as long as he gets a clean trip.

EIGHTH RACE

KONG STYLE makes his seasonal debut and his first start for trainer Kelly Breen, who does well both with absentees and with new faces; working well for this and that’s another strong angle for this barn. CLENCH has proven speed and merits respect for trainer Brad Cox, who wins at 24% with new faces; this colt rated in his latest but his best work has come when he’s been on the lead and he can be expected to come out gunning under jockey Victor Carrasco. SHARE THE RIDE returns from the break for trainer Jorge Duarte Jr. and will race as a gelding for the first time; has speed but has shown that he can rate and make one run if needed.

NINTH RACE

ROUGH NIGHT was a game winner when last seen, back in April at Tampa, winning the pace battle despite breaking from post 12 and then staving off the closers; he doesn’t nd necessarily have to be on the lead, and that versatility gives him some options in a race that’s not easy to plot in terms of pace. HAPPY WANDERER is another with the early foot to get into the game early, but he, too, can take back and be effective; may be overlooked some on the class rise despite some solid back turf Beyers. MR. DISCRETIONARY finished 6th but was only beaten a length in his seasonal debut last time, setting the pace and giving way only grudgingly; finished 2nd here last year in his first start of the meet after a good try in defeat at Gulfstream.

TENTH RACE

GOLDEN BROWN is best known for his work on the turf and going long but he can win sprinting, and is in fact two-for-two at this distance, including a win over statebred allowance runners over this strip early in his career; could not be training much better for trainer Pat McBurney and he may be too classy for this field of NJ-bred sprinters in the 2020 running of the John J. Reilly. BROTHER CHUB won this race two years ago and is the main threat to the top pick, as he is always tough in the NJ bred ranks at Monmouth; he has more than held his own against open company this year and figures tough if ready for his first start since February. PRENDIMI, the 2019 Reilly winner, deserves a mulligan for that last one, as he was hard used to get to the lead in the Grade 3 Westchester Stakes, which featured plenty of speed; best sprint figures put him in the mix.

ELEVENTH RACE

MATINEE GIRL looms the controlling speed in this fairly paceless turf route, and if she is in fact able to get loose without much pressure she could prove tough to reel in; faded on the lead last time but she was in against the streaking Sugar Fix there, with that runner coming out of there to win her next two starts. SEAHAWK LISA is way down in class for this, and the turf Beyers she’s posted thus far give her strong credibility vs. this field; figures to be more forwardly place today given the projected pace scenario. VOLADOR is another meeting lesser, and her top figures put her in the thick of this; tactical speed should mean she’s not too far out of it at any point.

TWELFTH RACE

FLEET WARRIOR weakened after pressing the pace as part of a three-ply duel in his return from the layoff but and that was a deceptively good effort, one which makes him a threat here in his local debut; expecting him to be able to get clear in the opening stages under Juarez, and with that type of trip he’s going to be tough to reel in. DAYTIME LOVER hasn’t been out since the fall but it’s certainly worth noting that he won here last year in his 2019 seasonal debut; makes his first start off the claim for trainer Chuck Spina and he may get first run at the top pick. BEARS MAFIA exist the same race as FLEET WARRIOR and ran well in his own right there; makes his third start off the layoff and should be in a good stalking spot from the start.