ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 7, MAYAN GHOST

FIRST RACE

GLENN’S JUMPER won his debut and that bodes well for today’s return try. The long layoff might be why connections drop this colt to a nickel. Works are fine and Rodriguez gets a leg up and he is 28% for this barn. Some early tote action would be welcome. MY FATHER’S EYES goes for Asmussen so there is that. Last race came back key when 3 of 8 returned to win with figs of 59, 50, and 51. Class drop looks just right. BATTALSTOWN is the other Asmussen runner. Recent tries are better and they came here. What if this gelding bounced a little in his most recent when facing first time winners? That 55 Beyer from the maiden breaker fits nicely here. Field size is much better now as Lone Star closed unexpectedly.

SECOND RACE

GUILTY AGAIN had improved his Beyer speed figure in his last four starts before coming here. That string ended in said race but he still won for fun. That race should prove a useful springboard for today. Trainer stats are strong across the board especially 23% second off this type of layoff. LUVMEWHENIMGONE has some speed and just won as the chalk. He draws more outside today. Race flow is average so that is actually a plus. His most recent was a Beyer top so some may worry about a bounce. PAT ME DOWN drops in class and gets back to the dirt. That alone is playable. Form cycle hints at better. This gelding has some hidden speed and today would be a good time to find it.

THIRD RACE

ONE FAST SONG has improved her Beyer in every start to date. Three of her five career starts have come at the Fair Grounds where the racing is obviously much better. She puts races back to back for the first time since January. This barn is 31% second off this type of layoff and they show a flat bet profit. This filly gets an extra half furlong to work with today. TUFFOLOGY is one half of the entry and both are solid. This filly broke her maiden on this dirt and did so versus special weights. In her second start, she broke 9th of 12 and simply tired down the lane. She still got some play that

day at 8-1 and those were stakes foes. Now she returns versus restricted claimers which are much easier. This filly didn’t cost very much so maybe that is why she returns at this level. HEY SIRI ran great at Delta Downs in all three starts. Then she tried two turns on the turf here and simply tired late. She should be more fit now. We are guessing that one half of the entry declares out.

FOURTH RACE

EXTIRPATOR looks better if you toss all of his Oaklawn tries. Those money allowance foes 2 and 3 back are extremely tough. This gelding got class relief in his most recent and won easy at 9/5. He is now 3 for 3 here. Connections find another spot where this gelding can’t be claimed. MILTONTOWN was washed off the green in his most recent and maybe that alone is the excuse. Nothing wrong with those starts 2, 3, 4, and 5 back. We don’t see too many Diodoro runners here but expect more with Lone Star closing. Not sure what kind of a trip this gelding is going to get. LEADER OF MEN can sit a decent enough trip but can he fire off the layoff. This is his first start of 2020. Local tab hints at horse for course status. He is only a 4YO.

FIFTH RACE

NANCY’S RESCUE looks better if you toss that turf route two back. Her most recent was a nice even try and bodes well for today’s elongated sprint. This filly is often a good price and tries this dirt for the second time. CHAMPAGNERIE is feeling great. She had all kinds of trouble two back. Recent turf wins hints at horse for course status even if switching back to the dirt today. We think team Broberg has this filly just where they want her and distance and surface mean little. LEXI EM has some speed and gets back to the dirt all while second off the layoff. Trainer stats are solid across the board. The class hike is a good sign, right? The two times that this filly got an early breather...she won.

SIXTH RACE

BUDRO TALKING escapes stakes foes and returns to his favorite sod where he has won 4 of 5. Not that he needs it, but race flows is fine. Second time with Gilligan up can only help. This gelding improved in his last second off the layoff race and it came here with the results an 80 Beyer. He is better now. We have seen enough so let’s move on. ROSE’S GALAXY is by a 6% debut turf sire. His dam was un-raced. One of four sibs won on the grass. If this gelding guns who is going to want to run with him? With an early breather and at a big price then anything can happen. PURSUIT OF A DREAM will get first run on the speed. He loves this sod at 4-3-1-0. The layoff is long but so are the works.

SEVENTH RACE

MAYAN GHOST goes from a 9% barn to a 23% barn. That 59 Beyer at Oaklawn three back fits here. This gelding actually faced much better at Woodbine. It is no surprise that Diodoro wants nickel claimers for first start under his care. CHROMED HEART draws outside and has some tactical speed. He goes turf to dirt and that is a 33% move for this barn. MAYBERRY SALOON just tried this distance for the first time and ran a Beyer top of 37. Now he gets a weight break with the apprentice up. He draws fine and has some tactical speed. The full field helps the price.

SCRATCH BOARD

Here are the horses entered today who have been scratched in the last 45 days and have not raced since the scratch. Definitions: Off the turf: Turf race switched to main track. Trainer: Any scratch made by a trainer, including ones for weather, medical issues, a decision not to run in a stakes race, a horse entered back the next racing day, or a conditional entry (i.e., main track only for a turf race). Vet: Injury or illness. Steward: Administrative issues like medication and eligibility.