ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 4, THE POSER

FIRST RACE

BOPPIN ANDA WEAVIN could shake loose on the lead stretching out from two turns to one. He ran well on this course last year going farther than he stays and is likely capable of something better than the shaky form he’s shown in this three-start recent cycle. TOSS probably was over the top when he got the drop from $16K claimers to this $10K level last out, April 4, at Tampa. The 5f work back on June 3 suggests he might be fitter than the light work pattern suggests. UNO EMAYO would be a bad bet at the published odds coming back from such a long layoff even if the pre-break form seems to stand out here.

SECOND RACE

WHO KNOWS WHAT debuts for a strong 2yo and first-time-starter outfit, bringing an encouraging work pattern to this restricted 5f dirt dash. The dam has produced nothing but solid runners and she herself began her career with a 2nd-place finish in a stakes race, earning a good 76 Beyer. RED PEPPER GRILL by Munnings, good with 2yos, as is the barn. Trainer D. Kobiskie had five 2yo first-time starters last year at CNL - they went 5-1-1-2, the winner being the only horse in that sample who ran on dirt. NICOLAR’s work pattern looks all right - trainer doesn’t win much with firsttimers.

THIRD RACE

PARATYCACHACA’s third start of the year should be his best, and it was only last out, when he ran decently with mild trouble, that he was dropped down to this $16K claiming class. Ran all right facing better on the CNL course last summer. Top pick has a cozy rail drawn while 2-1 morning-line favorite BOLD TREK is drawn outside. Bold Trek’s last two fit solidly enough but Party has a much longer history of competitive performance and Trek is no sure thing to want more than one mile. GOODLUCKCHUCK hit a career peak by a wide margin last out in first turf start. Seems like grass unlocked a new level, but can he route?

FOURTH RACE

THE POSER never ran for a claiming tag lower than $62,500, even when he was muddling along last year, and he seems to have validated the connections’ approach with meaningful improvement this year. That improvement somewhat obscured by a failed turf experiment last time and trouble two back, which means he ought to be a fair price landing in a 7f N1X where he can be very competitive. SHAKES CREEK has speed figures that point him out here, but the trainer is new to the circuit and one wonders if the Indiana Grand form is going to transfer, especially considering this horse has more downside than upside. Guess he gets bet well below his morning-line odds, too. We’ll see if PARK RIDGE BENNY’s two-race peak can sustain and if he can produce that 6f form over 7f.

FIFTH RACE

HOUSE IMPEACHMENT barely ran a lick bet down to 2-1 for the career debut at Delaware, but I’ll give him another chance switching from dirt to turf. Worked back twice since the first start and there is grass all over the female side of this pedigree. PALIO likely favored bringing a bunch of bullet works to career debut for capable first-out barn. Trainer M. Stidham had two first-time starters last year a CNL for owner David Ross; they finished 2nd and 8th, both at odds of 2-1. Midshipman is an underrated turf sire and debuting CYCLO, drawn on the rail, goes for a capable first-out barn.

SIXTH RACE

Think CASSIDY AVE gets bet well below the 9-2