ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 7, GHOUL

FIRST RACE

GLOBAL FREEDOM won a Fair Hill stake shortly after arriving from Ireland last year, and backed that race up well when just failing to hold on in his final start of the year; picks up top rider and dropping his jockey in his first start of the year. CRITICAL DATA won his debut over jumps convincingly in his first start of the year; gives away experience but has upside for an excellent trainer. EMERALD ROCKET settled for 2nd or 3rd in six of his seven starts over jumps last year in England, and continued in that vein upon shipping over here to finish 3rd in both starts at the end of the season; takes the next logical step after breaking his maiden in his first start of the year.

SECOND RACE

BELLEZA was no match for a better horse when rained off to the main track late last year and was left behind as second-best; returned from the layoff to sprint in a better spot and galloped to the lead at the top of the stretch, before proving to be no match for longshot firster Giant Stella (71 Beyer); drops again. CROSS KEYS is less exposed than the top one and gets the right class drop for her second start, after showing speed to contest the pace going a mile and proving to be no match for better horses first time out; logical cutting back. WHIPPY CREAM was outpaced from the start and never came close in her Tampa debut at the turn of the year; may not be able to run at all, but that was a strong race for the level that she started out in, with the blowout winner earning a 74 Beyer and then returning to win each of her next two starts. MISS ROSS has already had her chances but she has run pretty well in each of her last two starts and can get a piece of this.

THIRD RACE

FIVE ALARM ROBIN required class relief to finally break through but she faced better and held her own while starting out last year, and ran one of her better races up here on Travers Day while close to a strong pace from the start; back down in class as she returns from the layoff. STORMY DERBY DAY got control of the pace early on and took advantage to deny next-out winner Summer in the City to break her maiden for a $50k tag two starts back; lightly-raced 3yo has the right running style for this race as she drops back down in class. SUPER CUTE put in a good finish to break her maiden going long on dirt first time out, then was no match for a much better field in her second start; drops for a hot trainer in her NY debut and she has some turf pedigree, being by Temple City and out of a mare who was a Grade 3 winner on synthetic and stakes-placed on turf, despite going 0-6 on this surface. POSITIVE SKEW finally got back to a good race last time when rallying for 2nd with a 74 Beyer and can factor if she can back that effort up.

FOURTH RACE

VICARAGE did not run well while favored for his debut on turf, but he improved noticeably on the main track last time; rated back to last early in that race, before making a run around the turn to get into range and then coming with a good finish to fall just short of the odds-on winner. HOMETOWN debuted sprinting at Churchill in a strong race and put in a useful effort while passing some horses on the turn to get into range, and then just going evenly in the stretch; bred to handle the stretch out for a trainer sporting good numbers with this move - past five years, sprint to route, dirt: 15 for 45, 33%, $3.84 ROI, 9 for 28 with maidens in that sample (32%, $2.57 ROI), and 4 for 14 with second time starters (29%, $2.68). LUCKY ASSET was in that same race as HOMETOWN on 6/20, where he rallied late and was closest at the finish, and he improved last time while making a run into a contested pace going seven; bred to stretch out being an Honor Code half-brother to Grade 1-winning long-distance turf runner Twilight

Eclipse, as well as multiple Grade 3-winning dirt router Grand Contender.

FIFTH RACE

WAR CANOE sat a perfect trip with a rated pace and was outfinished in the Mount Vernon last time while making her first start for Chad Brown; positive view of that race is that she needed one off the layoff, as her overall form has ben solid; stacks up quite well in this spot and will be tough if she is just a bit tighter for this one. VORTEX ROAD is underrated and she ran a bang-up race on the lead last time to just miss at a big price; there isn’t much speed in this race, so the outside draw shouldn’t hinder her chances, but she also doesn’t need the lead to be effective. WEGETSDAMUNNYS rallied relentlessly to just nail VORTEX ROAD going nine furlongs two back, then tried to stretch all the way out vs. open stakes horses last time; slow starter may be a bit better with more distance than this but she is a strong fit in this spot.

SIXTH RACE

AMERICAN POWER improved to win three in a row last summer, including a game last-to-first win up here, before his connections got a bit ambitious and ran him in a Grade 1; returned from the layoff last month to show that everything was in order after being vanned off in his 2019 finale, and he paired up that solid figure while finishing a game 4th in a fast race last time. REED KAN returned to form to win convincingly two back on a slight class drop, and he ran even better last time while stalking a solid pace from the rail and then moving through to take over; steps up again while in form. CREATIVE STYLE’s last three races are the best of his career, including that effort two back when finishing gamely behind the in-form REED KAN off the layoff; entered to go long and was scratched after falling in the paddock here 11 days ago for a $25k tag and faces better here, though this distance suits him better.

SEVENTH RACE

GHOUL has improved significantly for this trainer while changing his running style and he showed off a big late kick when winning over this distance last December at Santa Anita, before coming right back with another strong run in the Clocker’s Corner after getting shuffled back to last; face a very strong field two back off the layoff and he ran better than it looks last time in a race that was dominated on the lead. READYFORPRIMETIME won two of his final three starts as a 3yo, including an easy front-running maiden score over course and distance up here with an 85 Beyer; was no match in the Allied Forces following that maiden score but he bounced back with another good effort when last seen and he still has some upside. VICI is an infrequent winner but he brings solid form into this race after contesting the pace going seven and staying to inside the final furlong in the closer-dominated First Defence and then setting a good pace over that same distance last time; cuts back with speed.

EIGHTH RACE

BLACKJACK DAVEY caught a wet track sprinting in a race he appeared to need first time out, then stretched out right away and easily handled maidens last time; stretches again and has to get the two turns up here, but he is a threat to improve again and will be tough if he does. DANNY CALIFORNIA is a two-time winner over this distance around two turns, which is not something to take lightly in this field, and he has actually run pretty well in his last three starts despite not really threatening to win any of them; nice fit here and not likely to be the favorite. TOO EARLY the only entrant outside of DANNY CALIFORNIA with a prior win over the distance, his coming off the layoff last time right here in a race rained off the grass; was entered MTO for that race and had to re-rally late to get it done, but he didn’t appear to have any problem with the distance.

NINTH RACE

MADE YOU LOOK has plenty of back class to be taken seriously in this spot and his two most recent races for this trainer have not been bad at all; was up close to a solid pace two back, and was stuck in behind horses on the inside as the strong outside flow started, and he was just outfinished for 2nd last time by a pair of good horses (Mr Dumas returned to finish 2nd in the Baruch last weekend with a 99 Beyer) after chasing a front-running winner. BREAKING THE RULES lost his form last year after appearing to be on the verge of being a factor in some bigger races and his campaign was over in mid-June; returned from the layoff to show that he can still run while defeating a good horse in Digital Age, though he had a perfect trip in that race; threat right back. THERAPIST may be a bit better going short than that around one-turn, but he is a multiple stakes winner vs. open company and he has won up here, albeit vs. overmatched rivals as the heaviest of favorites; fits well and his trainer has been making all the right moves so far.

TENTH RACE

LET THEM EAT CAKE’s two turf runs back both come going longer, and she just failed to finish