ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 1, SUPER E

FIRST RACE

SUPER E’s an unusual case - a nine-race maiden who’s made seven starts on dirt but clearly is better on turf. Rained off three times and followed up on the good turf sprint run from last fall with a near miss last time when finally back on the grass. Might’ve been moved a little early last out and with a patient ride can clear the maiden ranks, perhaps at a fair price. COUNT DOWN is a gelded brother to $4 million earner Hawkbill, who thrived at 10-12 furlongs, and ought to stay this middle distance after a pair of decent sprints to start career. AIR LIFT had been away from racing a year when he faded to sixth last out, but he’s also lost ground from the stretch call to the finish in all four of his starts. Seemingly has at least some improvement in him but the baseline doesn’t appear to be especially high.

SECOND RACE

Trainer Graham Motion doesn’t win with a lot of first-time starters but GUILDER lands in a softseeming VA-restricted maiden for her unveiling. The dam was a stakes-level turf performer while the solid work pattern suggests fitness won’t be an issue. PEARLYVILLE strongly suggested she prefers turf to dirt with a comeback grass race last out in a different league than the dirt debut. Draw a line through the first start, project some secondafter-layoff improvement, and she’s as plausible as anyone. AMPLIO ESQUEMA, like Pearlyville, seems to need grass for her best, and she finished pretty well two back in a $25K maiden-claimer at LRL likely comparable in quality to the purportedly higher level races in which most of these fillies have competed.

THIRD RACE

FARMINGTON ROAD’s dam was a grass horse as well as a sister to the Grade 1 turf performer, Silverfoot, and his grandsire, Elusive Quality, was a world-record-holding turf miler. Suspect his late run will prove more effective on turf than on dirt, though the Pletcher brand and stakes appearances mean you’re taking the worst of things price-wise. SINGAPORE FLASH lacked early pace last time but his previous races suggest he could make the lead from the rail and set a slow pace in this short field. J BERESFORD TIPTON is 0-9 since the debut win and doesn’t seem to be improving much recently. Did have trouble last time and his best race puts him in the mix, but not convinced he really wants to run this far, either.

FOURTH RACE

TAN AND TIGHT looks like an odds-on standout in this restricted turf-sprint stakes. Any of her four grass races make her formidable and I can’t see why one would predict sudden regression. BELLA AURORA was second facing males in a CNL turf sprint last season, but the overall look of her form suggests she’s a notch better on dirt than turf. WHAT THE BEEP won a $100K VA stakes on this course last summer but this will be her first start since October and I’d be surprised if she comes back with a peak performance.

FIFTH RACE

COTTON HOUSE’s three race jumping experiment is over, at least for now, and the $16K maidenclaiming win over one mile on the flat last summer at Delaware fits this $10K N2L claimer very nicely. PISTOLEIRO away since November but has a solid if somewhat abbreviated work pattern for a capable layoff barn. Three dirt races so far but there’s plenty of turf in this pedigree. DOPO LAVORO won’t at all mind this drop down to $10K N2L claiming, but even the last time she got such a class move, she hung, as usual (1-25 wins) and was narrowly defeated.

SIXTH RACE

ENJOY THE MUSIC finished first in a Delaware maiden-special-weight turf route two back, only to be disqualified, and turned in a similar performance at the same class level and venue last out, but the move from MSW into $40K maiden

claiming feels more realistic than negative. If he holds form, and the guess is he will, Jacksons’ homebred dominates this race at a very short price. TOLAGA BAY competitive in three CNL starts last season and can get back to that form, though he shows no sign of approaching an actual win.

PALMETTO BLUE ran a couple decent races last summer at CNL and hasn’t been seen since. Didn’t show enough in the 2019 appearances to indicate he can win at this level right out of the box.

SEVENTH RACE

HACKER MAN might simply be too slow, and the final quarter mile of his course and distance win last summer was pedestrian indeed, but he did beat 11 $16K maiden-claiming rival there, showing he’s much better on turf than dirt, could get the right setup in this race, and will be a price coming back from an extended layoff. BIG HAMBONE’s ratio of places and shows to wins is not the kind of thing you want with a short-priced horse like he. Spotted for action in a new barn following a layoff and figures competitive, but he does loom a likely underlay. WISE MEN probably wants to run longer and has no upside at age 6, but a quick pace could percolate and tire enough front-runners to give him a chance to fill out the trifecta.

EIGHTH RACE

LARGENT is a legitimately good turf horse and has been facing muuccchhh better rivals than he meets in this Virginia-restricted stakes race. Hard to bet on him at 2-5 but even harder to oppose him. EMBOLDEN despite being a 3-year-old who so far is far slower only gets two pounds from 4-year-old Largent. Away since Dec. 15, no turf route starts yet - he’s the one you might consider trying to run out of the exacta here, though I’m not inclined to do so.BLACK PRONG was third in this race a year ago but appears to have been cultivating his herd instincts since the most recent win in 2018.

NINTH RACE

MIDNIGHT SWAP looks like the lone real speed horse in this race and might even be a fair price, which you must demand since his form is spotty since the move out of SoCal. Blinkers on, got in a work over the CNL dirt track. One-run closer BARREL OF STOUT needs pace help he seems unlikely to get in this spot. When they tried to use him earlier in races, he lacked his usual stretch punch. RESIDENT LIBERAL through in a clunker last time but the barn, seemingly expressing optimism, raises the claiming price off that run. Has winning form if he can get back to it.