ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 4, TIZ SPLENDID NEWS

FIRST RACE

BRIANBAKES COOKIES was no factor vs. better last time, prior to that he was improving with every start for top connections and he can bounce back here while facing what appears to be a weaker group. A SILENT PLAYER made his career debut just over three weeks ago a winning one at Colonial; takes the next step for one of the best trainers to ever do it. PRAYER HOPE is also lightly-raced and he exits the same race as the top one, where he finished an even 4th; trainer has been dominating these races at the meet.

SECOND RACE

MUNNINGS MUSE debuted in a fast race last summer as a 2yo and finished a good 2nd with a field-best 71 Beyer; was set to make her return here last month as was sitting at 2:1 on the board when she was scratched at the gate. BANKERS DAUGHTER went turf to dirt last time and finished a game 2nd to a well-backed Pletcher firster; catches the top one off the layoff and can improve again. IMPAZIBLE DONNA, like the top one, managed only one start as a 2yo and finished 2nd a rallying 2nd behind a rival who would become a stakes winner later in the year; got bet for that debut and retains a hot rider for his return.

THIRD RACE

COILEAN BAWN showed an affinity for longer distances as a 3yo and broke her maiden over 10 furlongs off the layoff in June while matching her career-best Beyer; saved ground and just got for 3rd behind an impressive blowout winner (93 Beyer) in a similar spot earlier in the meet. QUIET DIGNITY is 0-7 since arriving stateside but was earning competitive figures as a 3yo last year, including an 80 when finishing 2nd behind a frontrunning winner over this distance in November; drops after trying the Waya in her first start for Maker. SETTING THE MOOD’s lone win to date came on the main track but she has faced some tougher fields in her two starts since returning to turf; has the upside for top connections.

FOURTH RACE

TIZ SPLENDID NEWS a filly by excellent debut sire and speed influence Maclean’s Music and a fullsister to Made Me shiver, who earned an 83 Beyer in winning her debut as a 2yo and then went on to win the Sorority Stakes two starts later; Ward 6 for 7 so far this year with 2yos debuting for a tag in dirt sprints, with the only loser in that sample finishing 2nd. DASH TO THE TOP debuted in a similar spot earlier in the meet - in a race won by a Ward first time starter - and finished gamely to get 3rd after coming wide to the stretch; back at the same level looking to build on that experience. WHO KNOWS WHAT debuted in a restricted race at Colonial 24 days ago and just failed to get 2nd behind a dominant front-running winner; that race came back slow but he appears to be properly spotted making his second start and picks up Irad.

FIFTH RACE

KITTEN’S ROMANCE made some ground to finish 3rd on debut then improve up here last time when just failing to drive down front-running More Mango at the end; draws the far outside post for the third straight time but showed improved positional speed last time. DIPPING IN was cut back to 5.5 furlongs for the drop in class last time and rallied gamely in the stretch after splitting horses to just fall short; has handled distance in the past and this appears to be the right level for a barn that has struggled a bit from limited starters. CHECK-SANDBALANCES sports a similar profile to the top one and finished just behind that rival as the favorite at this level early in the meet; likely to go favored once again.

SIXTH RACE

GRUDGE has been a turf horse from the start and has run some improved races on that surface recently without finding the winner’s circle; lone dirt start last year came back slow in a race rained off the turf, but she did face a quality rival there going seven and Englehart has some strong numbers switching from turf to dirt with sprinters,

especially at Saratoga - 7 for 21 over the pace five years, with another five in that sample finishing 2nd - $4.25 ROI. ASSUME turned back on the drop last time and easily defeated maidens after inheriting a clear lead coming to the stretch with his pace rival pulling up; will be tough right back if repeating that 72 Beyer off the claim. LADY MACHO was consistent as a 3yo while winning once and hitting the board three other times while trying a variety of surfaces and distances; drops for her second start of the year after prepping in a short sprint at Finger Lakes.

SEVENTH RACE

BUY LAND AND SEE ran well in all three turf starts as a 2yo, including his debut over course and distance, and became a stakes winner in his final start of the year going a mile; dominated allowance rivals in his first start back now steps up while cutting back to sprint for the first time since that debut run. TURNED ASIDE keeps getting better with every race and exits a commanding win in the Quick Call last time with a strong 90 Beyer; has speed but doesn’t nee the lead to be effective. MAVEN won a Group 3 in France as a 2yo while using his speed, and did so despite failing to break sharply from the gate; made an impressive return to the races at Keeneland last month when sprinting to the front and never letting that field into the race.

EIGHTH RACE

CLARA PEETERS came with a good finish to close down allowance rivals going seven at Belmont in June and she got bottled up behind horses in the stretch if the De La Rise last time with the eventual winner keeping her locked in until late; faces a strong field here but should have some pace in front of her. BLOWOUT a multiple stakes winner and has placed in several graded races since starting out early last year for Chad Brown; likely at her best when able to get to the lead, which could be an issue here, but she is clearly a strong threat if ready off the layoff. SWEET BYE AND BYE returned with a good effort sprinting off the layoff and she was a winner and Grade 3-placed going linger last year; versatile mare rarely fails to show up and may go overlooked a bit in this spot.

NINTH RACE

LET THEM EAT CAKE showed speed going longer and was outfinished late in her first two attempts on turf, then cut back last time and rallied after waiting behind horses on the turn to finish a gaining 2nd; one more chance with Rosario sticking. BOMBSHELL was progressive in Ireland as a 2yo while racing solely on synthetic; ships in to race with lasix and lands a hot rider from her inside draw. THRILL couldn’t make a late impact as the favorite when switched to dirt for her second start early in the meet; raced wide and was improving late before galloping out well in her turf sprint debut, while appearing to really need that race.