ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 6, SEBS PRINCESS

FIRST RACE

DESHA just got a Beyer top even though she was closing into a slow pace. She has always liked this sod and now goes third off the layoff. She draws well and goes for a barn that is 21% with horses that won their last race. She is a bit unlucky only in that this race came up tough for the level. FANCY

PANTS JEN loves this sod and comes in fresh and ready. The Smith barn is 38% off a long layoff. Race flow is fine and maybe better than that if the 1, 2, and 7 push each other. MALIBU MOIRA is feeling good and likes this lawn. A very good turf barn calls the shots and they show a flat bet profit on the green. This filly has some tactical speed which should help with this post.

SECOND RACE

MAJESTIC SOCIETY gets better race flow today, draws well, just ran a Beyer top, and owns a recent work. It would be great if entry-mate would stay in the game as he brings more pace to the race. TUNE MY GUITAR has good figs of late and goes second time this dirt. The blinkers come OFF and for team Schmidt that is a 100% move (2 for 2). With 3 horses stretching out today the pace should be good and this gelding gets to save all the early ground. LUCKY STREAKER goes sprint to route and gets in light. We would not be shocked if he was the main speed.

THIRD RACE

CHEROKEE CHATTER is one half of a capable entry. This filly is a new turf horse that is versatile. She has improved her Beyer in three straight starts. Why can’t that continue? There are no world beaters in this race. BROOKLYN BABY did win on this sod going this distance only three back. What if this filly just didn’t like the Evangeline turf last out? Green gets a leg up and she is 54% for team Broberg. This filly doesn’t have to have the front end to win. DREAMING OF CURLIN is by a 4% debut turf sire. Her dam was un-raced and this is her first grass foal. We like sharp horses on this sod. This filly tries first time winners but around here that is no big deal. MYSTIC GEM is by a 10% debut turf sire. Her dam was un-raced. Lone grass sib is 1-0-0-0. CONDESA’S HANDMAID is by a 0 for 7 debut turf sire. Her dam went 17-0-1-1 on the weeds and earned 13K. One of three sibs won on the grass with another hitting the board.

FOURTH RACE

DERECHO WARRIOR didn’t fire off the layoff but did catch a non fast surface. At times, this gelding can run well but they seem more hit and miss than anything. Maybe two turns is the problem? He cuts back and tries 6 1/2 furlongs for the first time. We kinda think this gelding is going to like an elongated sprint. His last race came back key when 2 of 5 returned to win with figs of 68 and 53 (2 more finished 2nd with figs of 70 and 67). ALL BIZNESS just won going 7 furlongs so the half furlong cut back shouldn’t hurt any. He draws fine and goes for Asmussen who is 22% with horses that won their last race. The 4, 5, and 12 provide some pace. SUPER HANDY MAN draws the attack post and has speed. Now as for his work tab... there isn’t much of it. Let’s go with the old hope he is working somewhere and move on.

FIFTH RACE

AMAZING SOUND is by a 0 for 7 debut turf sire. His dam went 3-0-0-1 on the sod and earned 5K. Lone sibling never tried the grass. We like that this gelding goes second time routing and draws inside. His only poor try came in the slop three back. RUNTOTEXAS has two of five sibs that won on the green. He never got much a breather last out. He goes third off the layoff and should improve second time on the grass and second time around two turns. HE’S A BELIEVER was right there with a furlong to go in his grass debut two back. He tried tougher last out and although he only beat two home did earn a Beyer top. Class drop can only help. EVERYDAYSCHRISTMAS is by a 1 for 14 debut turf sire. His dam was un-raced. Five sibs failed to win on the green but one did hit the board. ZARAZI is by the same sire as entry mate. His dam missed the board in only turf start. Two of four sibs won on the grass with another hitting the board. TWO CHIPS is by a 10% debut turf sire. His dam went 22-2-6-6 and earned 163K on the green. One of three sibs won on the grass.

SIXTH RACE

SEBS PRINCESS is the value at 10-1 on the morning line. This filly could be the lone closer in a race full of speed. Stakes foes two back were just too tough while recent turf race isn’t what she is bred for. This filly showed promise earlier in the year and now goes third off the layoff. FRONT MONEY MORGAN has speed but draws inside. Popular runner is a Broberg re-claim. Mora gets a leg up and we don’t see him riding all that often for this barn. He was up four back when this filly lost a photo. N. D. FREE seems capable on any surface. You can’t fault her recent win. She goes second time this barn and has always liked this dirt. If Lozada can get her to relax off all the speed then a great trip can be had. GIRL THIRSTY exits a key race where 2 of 5 returned to win with figs of 52 and 59.

SEVENTH RACE

WHOLE LOTTA LUCK has won going 9 furlongs and no one else can say the same. This gelding is settling in nicely here and now goes third time on this dirt. When right this gelling is capable of a Beyer in the high 60’s. GATO AMERICANO has some speed and draws the rail. He guns, right? Weight break helps there. Recent Beyer top and possible pace advantage make this horse the one to beat. SECOND GUESS might be the value. His most recent was solid and now he goes second time this dirt. Oklahoma tries were solid.