ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 3, PRINCIPAL DANCER

FIRST RACE

CAPTAIN BOMBASTIC and DREAM BIGGER are both multiple stakes winners and fairly tower over their rivals in this $100k Stallion Series race for NY-breds. CAPTAIN BOMBASTIC easily handled DREAM BIGGER in the Mike Lee two back, after running well twice vs. open company at Oaklawn over the winter, then took a shot in the Grade 1 Jerkens and didn’t embarrass himself while finishing a solid 4th. DREAM BIGGER is a three-time stakes winner with some fast races in his past, but he has also been favored in all eight dirt starts in his career and has only those three wins to show for it; has speed and goes turf to dirt while cutting back in distance. CHOWDA has overachieved a bit while winning three of his last four starts, with the lone loss coming when no match ofr the top two over a wet track in the rich race last December; starts back from the layoff with forward to go.

SECOND RACE

HURRICANE BREEZE finished behind a couple of these same rivals last time as the favorite, but he didn’t get the greatest ride in the world that day while rating right from the start and giving away all early position in the race; raced on gamely late in that spot with little chance and has proven to be more tactical in the past. PRINCESS FAWZIA just failed to hold on in that last one after getting early control and then turning away a strong challenge in the stretch; that’s the second time she has just failed to hold a stretch lead, but she has run well in all three starts to date and will be forward once again. MAKE OR BREAK earned a new top figure off the layoff two back when returned to turf, then got buried in traffic and lost all chance last time vs. weaker, steps up and is in better form than it may appear.

THIRD RACE

PRINCIPAL DANCER didn’t run close to his best over a sealed track off the layoff at Belmont but he rebounded with a much-improved effort last time while chasing a strong pace and trying gamely in the stretch, only to lose 2nd at the end; gets a positive rider change for a trainer who is having an excellent meet. REJECTED AGAIN has speed and is dropping down in class for his first start off the layoff; has yet to run as fast as some of his rivals here but this is the right level and the right distance for him, and he projects to make the early lead. WARDEN OF THE NORTH was claimed out of a needed debut back in June and promptly scored second time out off the claim with a competitive figure; has upside for top connections and won’t have to improve much to contend again.

FOURTH RACE

STAGE LEFT has made few mistakes sprinting since the blinkers came on last summer and he came through with the best effort of his career when brought back from the layoff at Belmont two back; faced a strong field up here last time and finished a good 4th after chasing wide. COBBLE HILL improved to win two in a row for Atras from off the pace at Belmont, and he took another step forward in his first start off the claim for Rudy last time to earn a new top figure; steps up into a protected spot while in the best form of his career. MAJESTIC WEST earned a competitive figure for his maiden win in his final start as a 3yo, but that race was around two turns and he was part of a pretty modest pace that day; turned back at this level for his first start of the year and finished an even, if game, 3rd while racing on the outside all the way.

FIFTH RACE

HERALD ANGEL bumped into a live firster for a hot trainer in her debut earlier in the meet, and took a strong run at that filly before settling for

second-best; tough in her second start if she can run as well. TANGERINE DREAM brought $115k after breezing 10.2 in March and she is bred for this kind of race, being by Big Brown and out of a dam who wa sa three-time winner sprinting on turf in her career, including a stakes win up here; underrated trainer won with his lone starter at the meet and tends to pick his spots well when racing on this circuit. PARTY AT PAGE’S debuted sprinting on dirt and just missed at the end if that race after racing with the pace throughout; experienced filly is a half to two turf winners, including a filly whi is currently 6 for 12 on the grass in her career, and has another sibling who has finished 2nd in all three turf sprints in her career.

SIXTH RACE

BACK CHANNEL made her first start for a trainer who often uses the debut as a learning experience and finished a good 2nd in that spot behind a 1:5 favorite while earning a 71 Beyer; was expected to improve last time and she did while bumping into a sharp winner, and she just missed getting 2nd from a talented rival at the end. BLACK MAGIC WOMAN had some buzz surrounding her on debut earlier in the meet and she showed good speed that day going a demanding distance, before weakening late; realize that race didn’t come back that fast but think she will benefit from the run and expect her to be tough in here. DOVIMA has made her first two starts on turf despite not having a ton of pedigree for that surface, and she has run well to just miss both times; dangerous in here if bringing that form over to the main track.

SEVENTH RACE

MATTA is facing some heavy-hitters in his NY debut but he has shown some talent while remaining lightly-raced and he has also proven to be very handy while bringing good speed out there with him; was defeated as the favorite when back to turf last time but he ran well that day while having no chance with a front-running winner (98 Beyer for Fiya in that spot) and leaving the rest of that field well behind. GHOUL had run well in his two Kenticky starts in May and June while facing a pair of very strong fields, and he took anither step forward last time while getting unlucky in a race that did not set up well at all for him; appears to be more speed in this fie;d to help him out. ROCKET HEAT the speed of the speed if he comes back ready for his 8yo debut; was in form when last seen while earning 90+ Beyers in three of his last four starts, but was doing so for a trainer who has since been ruled off.

EIGHTH RACE

IRISH FRONT made a positive impression in his debut up here as a 2yo then returned from the layoff last time and dominated maidens with a strong 88 Beyer; steps up. BLINDWILLIE MCTELL was ready for his return from the layoff last time and earned a new top Beyer of 90, but was unfortunate to bump into the talented Yaupon and had to settle for 3rd; trainer has been having a strong meet up here and this NY-bred has the credentials to be hard on this field. WILD MEDAGLIAD’ORO has earned the top two Beyers of his career in his last two starts, with both of those races coming in turf routes, but he won a dirt race easily prior to that and appears equally capable on either surface; like him cutting back and returning to dirt for this.

NINTH RACE

SWEET MELANIA broke her maiden first time on the turf up here as a 2yo then finished a good 2nd in the P. G. Johnson, before going on to win the Jessamine at Keeneland; returned from the layoff going this distance in June and earned a new top figure while dominating nd the Wonder Again; appears set to control the action from her inside draw. MICHELINE improved once the blinkers were added at the end of her 2yo campaign and was very unlucky not to win the Grade 3 Sweetest Chant shortly thereafter; exits a game try in the Regret, where she flattened out late, and can benefit from this cut back in distance. AMERICAN GIANT has some improving to do as she steps up in class for this, but her overall turf form is solid and she ran well last time after getting held up behind horses on the turn and then finishing gamely once clear in the stretch; tough post but she is second off the layoff and appears to be improving.

TENTH RACE

CAINUDOTHETWIST debuted early last month going nine furlongs at Belmont and finished a good 2nd after breaking slowly and then making a wide run into a rated pace; may not have to improve much off that effort to break through in this spot. BEYOND BROWN’s four turf starts to date have all come vs. MSW rivals and she earned a new top figure in her most recent start on this surface; has speed and figures tough making the drop. LITTLE RED BUTTON stretched out for the first time most recently and was more forwardly placed before settling for 3rd; back quickly and can use the inside post to her advantage.