ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 6, ROYAL DUKE

FIRST RACE

The long-range SoFla forecast for Friday calls for the latest tropical storms to be a distant memory and for a 9-race card to be run amid mostly sunny skies, so as usual all selections here are being made for turf racing staying ON. As to the noon ET opener, the 6-plus weeks since SHAKEM was claimed by Bobby DiBona might well have done the filly good; she’s had four local works and gets a new set of blinkers since finishing ahead of just one opponent when coming unveiled by Saffie; now the slight class raise seems rather encouraging when switching to a turf route, where the barn tends to get its best results; wide-open field invites a filly such as this to the top. I GET IT was in and amongst the leaders a long way in her latest vs. MSW types; still, she’ll have to step it up to do this, even for the first tag. KATIESDREAMGIRL is another adding blinkers when stretching out from a pair of dirt sprints.

SECOND RACE

Defaulting to Ralph and the Fla-bred homebred SILVER DOLLAR CITY, even with little to go on aside from the two recent morning works; gray dude is bred for suddenness both top and bottom, and Ralph’s prowess with this type speaks for itself; tote may yield the best clues. Right alongside, BASTIEN LE BROWN was a distant second at this same level in his latest; fits, obviously. EMIT comes unwrapped off 3 straight bullet drills by a trainer (Pita) whose stats aren’t truly indicative of his potential with first-timers.

THIRD RACE

Nine months after a first-and-only in which he ran a close-up third, HARD WEST resurfaces with steady Boynton prep as an obvious favorite for this same $12.5k; have to assume the field-high 42 BSF can be improved upon; logical enough. GRAY BULLET flashed big speed first out for Pita; could be the one to catch while hugging the fence. MAGICAL CAUSE gets the outer-post advantage for his debut following extensive schooling under the Sweezey tutelage.

FOURTH RACE

What a dominating score that was for YOLANDA’S PRIDE four Fridays ago as she took the track and never looked back as a 2-1 favorite; now wheels back versus open 3yo-filly turf milers, albeit for a nominally higher tag; you’d have to expect new jock Zayas will use the same aggressive tactics in seeking a repeat. AFFICIONADO was second in the key 7/31 race; let’s run it right back, ladies. CHEZ PAREE and the comebacking GALILEOS BALLERINA are among the fringe players.

FIFTH RACE

Exceptionally deep, ‘supercharged’ $65k MSW dash for 2yo fillies could get a plausible winner from among a pool of a half-dozen, if not more. Nodding in a tepid way toward BEYOND HEAVENLY, who’s been on a steady a.m. schedule ever since Louie arrived from Nola; daughter of Uncle Mo is one of a handful with the pedigree + works to emerge on top. RESTOFTHESTORY was a sharp second after the money showed 20 days ago; clearly a possible factor here given a clean break from her inner post. BLUE SAGE, a $200k baby, comes unveiled by the Servis of Smarty Jones fame.

SIXTH RACE

Interested to see how ROYAL DUKE does over a fast track and with benefit of a load-n-go strategy from his open-air outer box; been a long time since he’s raced over a glib surface; gray dude exits a more demanding starter-hybrid race for this ‘beaten’ spot; can do. FREE FLAY was an eye-popping winner of his only try, but that was nearly 7 months ago; very, very, very tricky gauge. SEPTEMBERTEN certainly matches up Beyer-wise and otherwise, but those 10 2nds/3rds alongside the solitary victory from 15 starts makes it tough to pull the win trigger.

SEVENTH RACE

Allowance with a bunch of main-track-only designates mixed in with the sprinters whose connections would prefer this 5-furlong race remains on the turf makes for a bit of cut-and-paste handicapping here. Siding with CABLE CHANNEL off the much-needed start 3 Fridays ago; seems plenty of speed will remain in here, even after all the scratches, to facilitate a decent kick that didn’t show itself last out partially because of the rustiness; Ralph with some live ones today. SMALL FORTUNE took some Georgina regrouping after spending the winter and spring on the main track; useful sort, is this gray 7yo. SARASOTA COUNTY exits the same key Aug. 7 race as the top pick and also stands to benefit from the needed go.

EIGHTH RACE

ALLURSTRA faced some pretty solid local competition during his lengthy tenure in the Pompay barn, and now Walder seems to find favorable circumstances when entering him back off the claim for a ‘beaten’ quarter while slapping on some blinks; third race in the form cycle could produce his first win since early January, especially in view of how well he ran last out. MILES AHEAD is the enigma of the day; ran off the TV screen twice at the championship meet before flubbing his next two; your guess is as good as the next person’s. MY FRIEND FLAVIN is mired in quite the win drought but does tend to pay his way.

NINTH RACE

With those 2 dirt sprints as a solid foundation, BLUE PAYNT now tries a turf mile for McPeek, who tends to win his share with both first-time grassers and 2yos; good as any in a lineup filled with unknowns, a category that certainly includes VIBURNUM and SAMURAI FIGHTER, both of whom stand to make a good first impression; both have done the necessary work ahead of this and have pedigrees to suggest they could come out firing. GULF COAST GAL and ZAP MAMA are others deserving of long looks in spite of their poor debuts.