ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 10, YES TO MISCHIEF

FIRST RACE

GLYNN COUNTY dropped in class off the layoff two back and came with a game run through the stretch to challenge fellow class-dropper Turn of Events on the lead, before ultimately settling for second-best; ran another good one last time but was facing much better horses in that spot and will appreciate stepping back a bit in his current form. LOKOYA ROAD made two starts early in the year at Fair Grounds and made a game late run without threat first time out, before improving while showing more tactical speed when last seen; switches to Maker and drops slightly off the bench with upside. HOLY EMPEROR dropped to this level off the layoff and improved two back while rallying for 2nd behind a Char Brown firster; stretched out last time and improved again while just missing with a career-best Beyer.

SECOND RACE

LONG TERM THINKING hard to go against as he takes the drop, even off the layoff; was disqualified from a win on debut last summer while earning an 81 Beyer, and he just missed in two subsequent starts vs. better while earning figures for those races that make him too fast for this field. CAUSE I SAID SO turned back at this level for his second start off the layoff and had to settle for secondbest to dominant class-dropper Macho Jack, who returned to win again with an 80 Beyer; has hit the board in all four sprints to date but lands in another tough spot for the level. BETTS debuted over a speed-favoring track in January at Aqueduct and couldn’t get involved while passing some horses, then tried to stretch out for his next start to no avail; faced maiden clainers for the first time on the main track after failing to factor on turf off the layoff.

THIRD RACE

PLUM ALI was a slight second-choice to a stablemate on debut early in the meet but it was no real contest on the track, as this filly rated professionally in the early stages, before putting in a strong run through the stretch to run over the leaders; figures tough right back for top connections based on that evidence. INVINCIBLE GAL debuted sprinting last month parlayed a good trip into a convincing win over an experienced rival; stretches out from her inside draw and isn’t exactly facing a strong field in this spot. MISCHIEVOUS DREAM a stablemate of the top one, and she also scored on debut early in the meet while sprinting 5.5 furlongs; stepped up to try the Bolton Landing last time and was no match for the talented Toby Heart, but has the pedigree to handle the stretch out.

FOURTH RACE

COVER PHOTO was claimed out of an easy win first time in blinkers earlier this year and failed to back that effort up when brought back by low-percentage connections; was taken right away by Drawing Away/Rice and laid up, before returning with a promising effort at Finger Lakes where she chased wide and finished gamely going a shorter distance; right back at the level of that goo win three back with the prep out of the way. BLUNT FORCE sat a nice trip and prevailed with a competitive figure when dropped in to face restricted claimers two back, and she made a sharp move to contention at this level last time, before proving to be no match for the closing Stay Fond; slightly shorter distance may work for her and she had tactical speed. I’LL TAKE THE CAKE was in good form at the end of last year and was claimed out of a solid effort behind stakes winner Vault for $25k before returning to win the $50k Lady Bird starter stake (for fillies and mares that had started for a claiming tag of $16k or less) with a 78 Beyer; has not run well in her two starts since the layoff and drops significantly.

FIFTH RACE

HERALD ANGEL debuted sprinting early in the meet and ran a winning race there while chasing and then taking a game run at the well-meant Guardian Moon in the stretch, before settling for secondbest; bred to handle the added distance being by Preakness winner Exaggerator and out of a dam who posted her lone win around two turns on turf, and who is herself out of a sister to strong turf influence Proud Citizen, runnerup in the Derby and third in the Preakness as a 3yo. CLASSIC COLORS stretched out and switched to turf for her second start and she improved significantly while rallying from last to finishing a gaining 3rd after a slow start; tough right back if running as well in this spot. BIG TIME LADY debuted in a solid-looking sprint on dirt and showed good early speed in that spot, before proving to be no match and tiring in the stretch; half to the very good NY-bred turf router Morrison is dangerous stretching out with speed over a surface she is bred to handle.

SIXTH RACE

SPIN A YARN arrived from Finger Lakes undefeated after four starts and she has looked goo nominating those weaker rivals while earning competitive figures; has posted three of those wins at eight 5 for 5.5 furlongs but she is handy and doubt it would be the added distance that gets her beat here. BIG Q was an upset debut winner up here as a 2yo before going on to become a stakes winner later in the year with an 81 Beyer; made a promising return when second-best to Critical Value back in June and she was in a tough spot last time while contesting a fast pace vs. a solid field of older, hard-hard hitting rivals. OFFICER HUTCHY is going to be tough here if she runs anything like that last one as she goes off the claim for an excellent trainer, and one who is quietly having a nice meet up here; three for six sprinting on dirt and was stakes-placed as a 2yo, so it’s not like that last one came out of nowhere, even if it was against much weaker.

SEVENTH RACE

KITTEN BY THE SEA won both starts vs. claiming company earlier this year and was claimed by Repole back in February (in the name of Jorge Navarro), before returning with a solid effort vs. better up here after a five-month break; drops after facing much better last time, where she contested a fast pace and tired. MUSIC OF LIFE chased the top one to no avail when they met for $40k back in February, though she did not run poorly there in a race that KITTEN BY THE SEA was able to dominate on the lead; liked that win two back, where she came determinedly to get up, and she paired up that top figure in her next start when just missing in a four-horse photo. FIVE ALARM ROBIN has to go to the Meadowlands to get the maiden win last year, but she has run some very good races with less-than-ideal trips prior to that; returned from the layoff vs. restricted claimers up here early in the meet and won easily after taking charge from the start.

EIGHTH RACE

KEPT TRUE got caught up contesting the pace going 6.5 furlongs off the layoff and tired to finish behind a couple of these; was getting better and the end of her 3yo campaign and into the first part of this year and had run a winning race in the Correction while dueling in a race that ultimately fell apart late prior to the layoff. PALACE AVENGER wasn’t running fast races as a 2yo but she was better than she looked, and she has gotten much faster since starting back as a 3yo; steps up while in form off a game win over entry-level allowance rivals with an 87 Beyer. FAIR REGIS has the back races to be tough in here and she had run pretty well in her three starts for Artas despite not finding the winner’s circle; outfinished KEPT TRUE last time but she sat the better trip that day as the favorite ad was still no match for impressive winner Honor Way.

NINTH RACE

TRAIPSING gets a pass for that last one when favored as she was forced to run over the main track; liked her two wins following the debut run behind Newspaperofrecord as a 2yo, and she ran much better than it may appear in the Treasure Coast two back while racing keenly after a solid pace in a race that went to closers at the end; can get the distance but much settle this time. LOVELY LUCKY gamely prevailed after a great trip and ride to break her maiden two back, and she took things to another level with the added distance last time;l tough right back if she’s really that good. ORGLANDES placed in four of her first five starts in France while showing an affinity for distance racing and then won her final two starts as a 3yo, including an allowance victory over colts when last seen; adds lasix for her first start off the layoff and they usually come back ready from this barn.

TENTH RACE

YES TO MISCHIEF debuted sprinting on dirt and appeared to need that race while racing greenly early and then starting to race on gamely in the stretch to finish a gaining 4th; adds lasix for her second start and she is bred for this being a half to a turf winner out of a dam who placed in her first two turf starts before breaking her maiden going long on grass and is a sister to multiple Grade 3 turf winner Broken Dreams. COUNTERPARTY RISK is from the family of Grade 1 turf winner Sarah Lynx and was purchased for $325k guineas by top connections as a yearling; most recent breeze came in company with the older filly Olendon, who has underachieved a bit since arriving in this barn but was a stakes winner and Group 1-placed in France. HARLEM HEIGHTS is 0-4 on dirt so far but she has run some good races on that surface without winning; really has more of a pedigree for that surface but she is a half-sister to the top turf router Point of Entry and she is a big threat here if she handles the surface switch.