ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 1, BECKON

FIRST RACE

First post is 12:40 ET. Remember 12% takeout on Pick 5 wagers. Although BECKON was disqualified and placed fifth as the beaten favorite in most recent outing, thought she ran an extremely game race to finish second. After breaking sharply, she rated back and angled off the rail to press a 123 to 1 shot (finished last) from the outside through very fast fractions. She never got a breather while facing two challengers on the turn, but put them both away only to succumb to a closer in the final sixteenth. Finished ahead of two next-out winners in that spot, sheds blinkers and seems fast enough to avoid being outsprinted as she cuts back in distance. TIZ MINE, a $1,000 weanling by a 15% first-turf sire, is out of a dam that was a stakesplaced turf sprinter at Colonial Downs. Kin to two turf winners as well as coupled mate Whispurring Kitten shows a solid tab for her debut. FACTORINTHEHEAT makes third start off the break after facing a very promising Coconut Cake in a key race last month. Coconut Cake returned to score an offthe-turf entry-level allowance with a 74 Beyer. It appears this one is racing herself back into shape. WHISPURRING KITTEN set a fast and pressured pace in lone start this year before tiring on her left lead in the stretch. Away another 95 days, but might end up the primary pacesetter.

SECOND RACE

POLISHED COPPER dusted off “non-winners of two” claimers following a week layoff two starts back and now returns off a similar break moving from turf to dirt. Looked good in that heat as she stalked outside, angled four wide turning for home and wore them down late. Proven at this distance over turf, she’ll need to stay close to the expected moderate pace. WIN THEN GRIN might have been stymied by a speed-favoring track going three turns at Charles Town two back, then was no match for runaway winner Si Mamacita in a weak bottom “beaten” claimer. Makes first start for a new barn and can make a late bid at a solid mutuel. BABY BAM BAM ships in for Jamie Ness in razor-sharp form as she seeks her fifth straight victory while looming as the main speed. She’s the lone four-time winner in the field facing a bunch of “non-winners of three” foes and figures very tough on the front end.

THIRD RACE

FRED’S SHEILA, a $4,000 yearling by Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner Texas Red, is a half-sister to three winners out of a dam that was multiple stakes-placed sprinting on dirt in New York (92 Beyer top). The dam is a half-sister to juvenile Grade 2-placed sprinter Stat and juvenile Grade 3-placed sprinter Lenaro. A couple of these workouts match up with trainer Justin Nixon’s Bluefield, an older debut winner for $16,000 here on August 8 with a 45 Beyer. Perhaps they worked in company. SOCIAL sold for $12,000 as a short yearling and is from the first crop of Preakness third-place finisher Social Inclusion. The dam won going five-eighths on turf and is a half-sister to Group 3-winning turf router Secret History. Won’t be surprised if this one is quick from the stalls. NETTI GIRL was forced outward turning into the stretch of recent outing at Delaware, but lacked a strong stretch punch while green with her lead changes. WHO’S YOUR DADDY drops out of the special weight ranks and is a half-sister to stakeswinning dirt sprinter Outwithbigdaddy.

FOURTH RACE

ELENZEE is in desperate need of class relief and receives it dropping to the $16,000 level in first start over the circuit. Pushed a solid pace last time out at Saratoga in a race in which the top two finishers rallied from seventh and last after the opening quarter. He’s never been this cheap and might not have to work so hard to get a forward position against these. His last victory came in the third start following a 168-day layoff and he now goes third off a 245-day break. DRAGON MOON dead-heated with next-out 82-Beyer winner Nautical Nature (grabbed off-the-turf $14,000 ‘beaten’ claimer, then ran second in off-the-turf restricted allowance with 76 Beyer) in first local outing. Thought he sat a pretty good stalking trip and had every chance after swinging wide turning for home

only to perhaps hang just a bit late. Just a snug fit at this class. DIZZY SIGHT raced in between horses on the turn of recent near-miss at Colonial, eased out with a big look turning for home and was outfinished by a 34 to 1 shot. Competitive recent Beyers. RED CLAY ROAD rallied along the inside to finish behind Dragon Moon in turf sprint two starts back. Toss recent dirt try as he doesn’t like that surface at all. Sleeper candidate if able to get some pace up front.

FIFTH RACE

NATIONAL HONOR might have been best in the faster division of $12,500 sellers at Monmouth on July 18. He saved ground after breaking from a tough outside post position, but the jock opted to stay in turning for home instead of angling out for a clear run. After splitting horses, he altered back to the rail and had to get off it very late in the game. The winner of that race returned to finish second in a $16,000 starter handicap with a 82 Beyer and has now earned over $455K in his career. He’s won second off the bench in the past, but needs to stay within range of a pace that might not set up as well for him here. POSTERITY was simply in too tough on turf two starts back against “two-otherthan” optional claimers. Saved ground at the back of the field and hopped back to his left lead in the stretch when behind next-out 84-Beyer performer Artemus Bridge (third in similar optional claimer at Monmouth). Class relief serves him well here. Getting a bit tired of BONDURANT’s act, but respect his back class and the addition of blinkers might get him into the race and into a good forward position. Caught a nice group two back that was led home by Nick Papagiorgio (came back to post a 3-2-1-0 record with Beyers ranging from 73 to 80). ELDRITCH failed to change leads in first start for this barn when finishing behind the top pick, but he ended up in behind horses in upper stretch. Think he’ll be tighter for this assignment.

SIXTH RACE

SOUPER CATCH’s utilized the turf-to-dirt move in the first start following a layoff line to splash home against $16,000 “beaten claimers” on June 20 and will attempt to repeat that pattern dropping all the way to the bottom. Stalked three wide and in between early in that dirt race, angled widest turning for home and had no issues with that group. Eighth-place runner returned to place three times on turf at Monmouth with Beyers ranging from 70 to 73. It is imperative to demand value on ALWAYS FORGIVEN as he’s developed a nasty habit of spotting the field multiple lengths at the start. Ran a remarkable race last time at Charles Town as he broke eight lengths slow, mid-moved into a fast pace to gain the lead on the backstretch and hung in gamely for third. Obviously a major threat if he breaks with the field. LUCID DREAM is an intriguing contender dropping out of the open ranks and his most recent victory came for a $5,000 ‘beaten” tag. Finished just behind Ridgemont High last time and that one returned to run second in a starter-optional claimer with a 64 Beyer. ITGOT GRANDMA had to go fast to procure the lead last time out in first start off the Farrior claim and still finished ahead of three of today’s rivals. She might have an easier time of it on the front end this afternoon.

SEVENTH RACE

MINISTER’S STRIKE was compromised by a lack of pace and a wide trip in most recent appearance at Monmouth. In between horses at the back of the pack, he made a four-wide bid on the turn, spun five deep turning for home and lacked a strong finish. He won here in his seasonal debut, drops back into a claiming race and might receive a kinder pace scenario here. Any of FLOWMOTION’s last seven Beyers would qualify as the best-last speed figure in this race and he looms the horse to beat dropping out of the entry-level allowance ranks at Monmouth. Failed to capitalize on a nice ride by Paco Lopez last time out as the favorite as he saved ground after hopping at the start, went after the loose leader turning for home and just couldn’t kick with them while very late to change leads. Fifth-finisher from that race returned to dead-heat for the win against entry-level optional claimers with an 85 Beyer. Good trip likely coming here. CLOONTIA makes third start of the year with good early speed. Shook loose going into the first turn last time out at Delaware and was easily second best under the line. Might have to go a bit quicker early with stretchout sprinter Daystrike right next door.

EIGHTH RACE

ROMANTIC MOMENT overcame a slow pace to win her only other one-turn turf sprint and now returns off a 222-day layoff for Shug McGaughey barn that is 6 for 13 (46%, $8.86 ROI) in grass races at Laurel over the past two years. Tried two turns in the South Beach Stakes at Gulfstream on Pegasus World Cup afternoon and was held up at the back behind another slow pace. The fourthplace finisher from that heat returned to grab the Grade 3 Honey Fox Stakes at Gulfstream with a 92 Beyer. Give her some pace and she should fire late. LEMON ZIP is a multiple stakes-placed performer with victories at distances ranging from six furlongs to 1 1/2 miles. She’s performed well second of the layoff in the past and might have been in a bit tough last time off 134-day break against a field that included next-out restricted stakes-placed performer Wegetsdamunnys (87 Beyer at Saratoga); Owner-trainer combination is 6 for 11 (55%, $3.85 ROI, ten in the money) over the past six months. Either half of the Brittlyn Stable-owned entry can contend. MR. AL’S GAL has won 14 of 31 lifetime starts and returns to the surface of solid victory at Fair Grounds on March 19. Her tactical speed can allow her to get the jump on the top pick picks. Mate WILD ABOUT STAR grabbed The Very One Stakes last year at Pimlico despite hopping to her left lead in the final furlong. Connections have tried to get her on the turf to no avail in two starts this year. She should take a big step forward from just off the pace if allowed to play on grass.

NINTH RACE

THUNDERINTHEVALLEY doesn’t have a quick first step, but it appears she’s rounding into form. Two back, she was sandwiched at the start, recovered to push a quick pace outside and finished second to the favorite. Last time, she broke a beat slow, tracked three wide and finished evenly in the stretch. Taken by Carlos Mancilla, a trainer that is 4 for 11 (36%, $9.41 ROI) over the past year with newly-claimed older (3-year-old and up) dirt sprinters (including waiver-maiden Royal Thunder’s win off the claim here on August 28). BELLY FLOP’s sire is 0 for 33 with debut runners, but the $3,000 yearling shows a couple of gate works that match up with trainer Dale Capuano’s 4-year-old Rip Rap Riley, a gelding that ran third for a $5,000 ‘beaten’ tag on August 27 with a 56 Beyer. Perhaps they worked in company. The dam is a full sister to stakes-placed dirt router Dontmesswithkitten. RAN CHAR finished ahead of the top pick two back when behind favored Awesome Pal, then faltered when trying a mile on turf. Gained fitness from that race and should appreciate moving back to preferred surface.