ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 3, TWO BY TWO

FIRST RACE

SAMURAI MIKE is a seasoned turf sprinter that now goes for Broberg who is 26% off the claim. Ekleberry gets a leg up and he is the hottest jock on the planet. This gelding is best with a target and that won’t be a problem today. CHATTERMAN is a consistent runner that goes for a top barn. This gelding has yet to win on this sod but loves to win overall. Arrieta returns and he rode three back when this gelding ran a Beyer top on the dirt. SERMON BY THE SEA is by a 5% debut turf sire. His dam went 2-1-0-0 on the weeds and earned 33K. One of five sibs won on the grass with another two hitting the board. This guy has the best upside, right? He is also the outside speed at what should be a good price.

SECOND RACE

YESTERYEAR is the inside speed going five furlongs that also drops in class. Works for us. Don’t forget that the meet ends next week so class drops become more frequent and less scary. AZUSA ST. is feeling good for Mac and has solid figs. Will the full furlong cut back hurt though? There isn’t that much pace in this race so this gelding shouldn’t be that far off whomever guns. WALKERS MEMO tried two turns and the turf in his most recent and that is tough. Class drop and cut back combined with surface switch all help to shake things up. HAS THE GLORY is by a 7% debut sire. His dam went 4-1-0-0 and earned 3K. All 4 sibs won with 1 having beat winners. CHANGING GEARS is by a 12% debut sire. His dam went 2-0-0-0. One of two sibs won.

THIRD RACE

TWO BY TWO just won nicely and did so first out locally. We love the surface switch today. This gelding tried high priced maiden claimers at GP not that long ago and beat over half the field home in both starts. He is a half to Twoko Bay who runs here and has earned 112K (47K on the grass). This barn is 19% with horses that won their last race and the same on the turf. Race flow is faster than average so there is another plus. MINNESOTA

MIRACLE is feeling great. He draws well and is versatile. State-bred continues to impress. GREAT BLAKE caught a good turf two back and didn’t fire. His two turns tries 1 and 3 back were rock solid. ROYALLY HANDSOME is by a 13% debut turf sire. His dam went 3-0-0-0 on the weeds. Lone sib never tried the sod.

FOURTH RACE

RY’S REVENGE gets back to an elongated sprint and that is where he broke his maiden only two back. The Berndt barn is 20% route to sprint and that isn’t easy. In fact, the leading barn is 20% or above on the dirt, in sprints, and with their claimers. They often use Hernandez. If looking for a small knock, there isn’t that much pace in here. MARSHALL HILL is feeing better of late and seems best at this distance. Last chance for a good price? Lack of front speed hurts. FORTNITE DANCE continues to out run his odds so why not one more time. We like that connections turn this gelding around quickly.

FIFTH RACE

APPEALING AUDREY makes a winning class drop today. Pace should not matter but it is average anyway. We think Hernandez up is the tipping point. FROSTY FLIRT is feeling great and keeps the hot jock. This filly draws well and even has some speed. The one to catch? BENTLEY’S DREAM won off the pace two back and then just missed on the pace previously. She draws more inside than main pace foes. Chirinos rode our top pick last out but stays with this filly. HUSH Y’ALL is by a 6% debut turf sire. Her dam never tried the green nor did lone sib.

SIXTH RACE

STITZY continues to improve on the grass but that is no surprise as he has a turf Tomlinson of 340. With a better trip, he would have won two back. He won’t get as fast a pace as last out but we doubt it will matter. Class drop near the end of the meet is what leading barns just do. RED CORVETTE is

the value. He just didn’t get a good or clean trip last out. We liked him then so were gonna go right back to him today while nothing a jock switch/nice price. SPIRIT MISSION has well OK on this sod in his last three turf starts and did so at odds of 8-1, 12-1, and 9-1. He finished 2nd, 3rd, and 4th. His most recent was a Beyer top for 2020.

SEVENTH RACE

SPELL WINDER just ran better while improving her Beyer by 33 points. This mare is an 8YO so she could be An Old Good Horse Getting Better. Lots of and lots of speed in here so a great trip is possible/likely. DISTINCT APPROVAL has speed but can stalk. Last race came back key when 2 of 3 returned to win with figs of 60 and 73. White hot rider gets a leg up. VERY BOISTEROUS has some speed but can pass a runner. She did win on this dirt only two back. No more weight break though.

EIGHTH RACE

CREATIVE ART is a stakes winner on this dirt even if it has fallen off his pp’s. This gelding is a 10YO so we’re gonna say that he needed all three of his return tries. We know that he loves this distance. He draws best and gets Arrieta back. JACK SNIPE’S has never missed the exacta on this dirt. His dirt tab is good also. He won his only try at this distance. He even drops in class. Layoff lines are scary though. TUCKER TIME goes for a barn that is 31% off the layoff. This gelding has won going this distance. Harr gets a leg up and she is 30% for this barn.

NINTH RACE

AND HE’S LOOSE is the huge favorite and for good reason. He has a double Beyer advantage. He goes second time routing and drops in class a lot. Let’s move on. RAISIN CANDY BAR gets to save all the early ground with his rail draw. He is better of late and it came with the move to two turns. A new route horse? TIMEINTHETAVERN just ran a Beyer top and did so going a flat mile on this dirt. She picks up two pounds today but that’s not a deal breaker. Facing the boys is an interesting move.