ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 10, STORMY DERBY DAY

FIRST RACE

I’M FINE’s lone start as a 2yo was also her lone start on turf and she ran deceptively well that day to finish with interest after losing position following a slow start; back to turf for the first time since following an improved show of speed on the main track when last seen. PURE BODE got in a useful debut sprinting then took a step forward last time when hanging in gamely to the end after being denied the early lead; has enough speed to make the front this time. GAELIC GOLD has run pretty well in all three starts to date without winning; logical contender for hot connections.

SECOND RACE

MINI P improved steadily upon his arrival back at the end of 2018, culminating with a nice maiden win over a good field with a 90 Beyer; missed a lot of time after that win but got in a useful prep off the bench despite being very fresh early and having to be taken under a hard hold going 10 furlongs. ALLEY OOP JOHNNY ran a winning race two back while forced to contest the pace all the way, then tried to take a three-wide tracking trip while up in class last time and weakened at the end; drops back down and his speed is dangerous over this distance on the inner turf. RAKEEZ was no factor being better in his debut late last year then took a step forward to duel down a stubborn rival to break his maiden 254 days ago; logical drop for his first start back and may not have to improve much to contend here.

THIRD RACE

COTTON CANDY CUTIE comes into this on a long losing streak - last win back in January of 2018, 23 starts ago - but she has shown some signs of improvement lately while contesting some fast paces; can get the mile and dangerous if she makes the lead in this spot. COLD HEARTED PEARL also has some speed and can also get the mile, and she got back on track when shipped to Finger Lakes last time following three subpar efforts on this circuit; threat shipping back in at this level. STAY FOND needs some pace in order to be most effective at this point; took advantage to win two and three starts back but may not have that kind of set up here.

FOURTH RACE

IAINTFRAIDANOGHOST made her debut early in the Saratoga meet, where she took some money, then proceeded to lack early speed to wind up at the back of that field, ultimately getting shuffled back behind horses; she never factored after that but may do better with that experience behind her. HONEY PANTS has a lot of turf in her pedigree but she is entered for dirt by an excellent first-out trainer and shows up with a bullet blowout in tow from an outside draw. SPA READY never shipped up to Saratoga over the summer for a trainer who has plenty to choose from, but she trained right along down here and has some pedigree behind her.

FIFTH RACE

ROBIN SPARKLES got to turf for her second career start and blitzed maidens with a big show of speed en route to an impressive victory with a 90 Beyer; distance a bit of a question but she is going to be tough if she can handle it. FIVE ALARM ROBIN took advantage after clearing to the lead to win off the layoff at Saratoga, but she had shown some potential prior to that and doesn’t need the lead to be effective. PRINCESS FAWZIA another horse who likes to be forward but she has run well without fail to begin her career and is a nice fit at this distance.

SIXTH RACE

CEANT faced a solid field first time out and was allowed to trail that field early, before racing on with some interest late without threat; might have been using that race to gain some experience and

has not landed in the toughest MSW field in the world here, especially over this distance. FORTY

ZIP didn’t run poorly at all first time out while gaining some late ground without threat, and she improved in her second start vs. a better field; distance a question but she can take another step forward here. HARLEM HEIGHTS has disappointed a bit on dirt at some shorter prices, though there have been some excuses for her along the way; distance should be no problem and she is bred for turf on the bottom being a half to Point of Entry.

SEVENTH RACE

HIGHLY MOTIVATED had to settle for 2nd to a talented stablemate first time out but he did some good things that day to make a long run after getting bumped to the back at the start; couldn’t hold on but that winner might be pretty good and this colt did a lot of racing that day. HIGHWAY BOUND an Into Mischief colt from the multiple Grade 1 winning dam Seventh Street, who has already dropped two talented runners in Marking and Lake Avenue; homebred threw in a bullet breeze two works back. KNOWN AGENDA one of two interesting fisters here for Pletcher, though this is not an easy distance to get first time out; Curlin colt is going to appreciate distance eventually, though he may also want turf.

EIGHTH RACE

UNCLE GEORGE debuted over course and distance in June and overcame a bump at the start to erase a big deficit in the stretch with a strong finish; had a nightmare trip two back and he ran well last time over a distance that might be a bit short for him. VETERANS BEACH hasn’t won a race since scoring first time out over two years ago, though he has run well enough to contend with a field like this more than once along the way; second off the layoff making his second start for Clement and has tactical speed. FREEWHEELER has disappointed twice now since returning from the layoff and has yet to surpass the 79 Beyer he earned as a 2yo; has some speed in a race that may not be run at a fast pace but he is hard to take at any short price.

NINTH RACE

MRS. DANVERS comes into this race with something to prove now after getting blanked in her first three starts as a 3yo, though she has legit excuses for two of those efforts; showed a lot of potential last year and is going to be tough if finally ready to take the step forward. CRITICAL VALUE earned a 78 Beyer winning a stakes race vs. fellow NY-breds as a 2yo over this track and trip, and she surpassed that figure when winning the Bouwerie easily in her first start off the layoff; cuts back after failing to stretch out effectively at Saratoga last time. POP A CHOC impressed in wiring maidens when switched to dirt for the first time off a short layoff back in June, and she has also run pretty well in her two starts since while coming up short; has the get the mile but owns dangerous speed.

TENTH RACE

Not sure what was going on with STORMY DERBY DAY in her last two starts but she was never given a chance either time while winding up far back in the field with blinkers on; showed more speed previously and ran a race that would make her competitive with this bunch when breaking her maiden on the lea back in April; one more chance with the blinkers coming off. MARQUET LEGACY improved through racing last year and gamely broke her maiden prior to the layoff after sitting a good trip; drops for the first time following a disappointing effort at Saratoga. WINIFRED J owns dangerous speed in a race like this and she is dropping down to a better level after facing tougher sprinting in each of her last four starts; distance the main question.