ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 8, PANAREA

FIRST RACE

MADAME MOON didn’t break very well last time, but came with a decent late rally to pick up some horses in the stretch. With an alert beginning, she has the tactical speed to find a better early position despite breaking from this tough outside post. Drops to this level for the first time and seems like a strong fit. V K LEGACY isn’t very trustworthy as a 17-time maiden, but she pressed the solid pace of the gate-to-wire last time out and hung in there pretty gamely for the place. Finished ahead of two of these rivals as well as Wonder Blondy (returned to graduate with a 66 Beyer). Perhaps best played on the bottom of single-race exotics. TERRIBLE TARA finished ahead of the top pick when adopting pacesetting tactics and should be forward once more from the inside draw. Consistent from a Beyer perspective.

SECOND RACE

The pace didn’t come back for GRACE’S DRAMA last time as the two pacesetters dominated throughout. Previously, she looked good in first start off the Dibona claim to easily handle Paynter Fest by open lengths. Consistent mare should be running late. BROOKES ALL MINE looms the one to beat as she brings the best speed figures and seems like the controlling speed. It’s worth noting that she’s been away 161 days, however, and dips in claiming price following the claim. PAYNTER FEST has hit the board in all six starts since being taken by Barboza. Perhaps not the greatest trip last time when beaten at odds-on by Grace’s Drama. Seems like a very solid fit at this level. FLASHING DIAMOND has been crying out for some class relief and gets it here. Has enough speed to push Brookes All Mine in the early stages.

THIRD RACE

It might be now-or-never time for UNO BABY BIRD as the colt has lost at 5 to 2 or less in his last five dirt starts. Perhaps he’ll be ready for a peak effort here in the third start of the form cycle and he should be able to clear off to the early lead. Finished ahead of three of these last time when behind Makinalegacy (returned to finish second with a 55 Beyer), but there are always concerns about this one’s stamina, or lack thereof. MAQUIAVELO has hit the board in two-thirds of his starts, but finished behind the top pick in their last two meetings and there seems to be limited upside after 12 lifetime races. Could be the one to benefit directly if Uno Baby Bird falters again when it counts. SILVER CONNECTION also has the tactical speed to stay within range. Like Uno Baby Bird, he makes his third start following a layoff line with improving Beyers on display and might be racing himself into shape.

FOURTH RACE

That was a good try by FAST FRACTION in first start at this level. Although the splits for that race don’t look very fast, the two leaders ended up last and next-to-last, respectively, and the winner’s last run ended up being the best run. Fast Fraction worked out a decent ground-saving trip, but might have moved a hair early in the context of the overall race shape. Likely to fall behind in the early stages this afternoon, she’ll need some pace help up front. SLEWYS CHOSEN ONE hasn’t raced on dirt in over two years, but she exceeded the Beyer par for this level in that sloppy-track start back in

2018 and has the early speed to work out a nice forward trip in third start of the year. Seems like a strong fit from a class perspective. VUYELWA returned from short break with dominating upset win over a weak field of dime maiden claimers. Confidence should be sky-high, but this is a muchtougher field. AUBURN must be respected in first start for red-hot barn and he has the tactical speed to get the jump on the top pick turning for home.

FIFTH RACE

SPEED STAR was part of a very hot pace in most recent turf start and hung in there pretty gamely to last for a minor piece. Don’t think the fractions will be as fast this time around and she can get the jump on her main competition. Willing to forgive her recent loss on dirt as that doesn’t appear to be her preferred surface. Both SWEETLY MAID and BRIGHT VENEZUELAN are late-runners that need the proper combination of pace and race luck. The former was outrun along the inside two back, split horses turning for home and ended up in a bit tight between rivals late in the game. Meanwhile, Bright Venezuelan enjoyed the benefits of that quick pace while suffering none of the traffic trouble to pull off the upset. Both are in good form, but it’s questionable whether they’ll receive a similar pace setup this time around. J’S INDIAN CHARM dueled with razor-sharp Heir Ball (returned to win a statebred optional claimer with a 77 Beyer for her third win in the last four starts) in most recent turf outing and might have an easier time of it on the front end this afternoon.

SIXTH RACE

DIAMONDS ENJOY improved when dropped in class and distance earlier this month. Set the pace before being outfinished by the two favorites in that September 13 heat and figures up close once again after breaking from the rail. Should be prominently-placed when the real racing begins. The two speeds didn’t come back for TRISOMIA last time out, but perhaps he’ll get a better setup here if Gran Casique pushes the top pick early. Lightly-raced gelding finished ahead of Taamer on September 3 and that one returned to flatter the performance by earning a 66 Beyer in a five-length victory. THREE DEEP was wired last time out by a horse that returned to Beyer 73 when second in an open $16,000 claimer. Respect his tactical speed and he should take up a good spot just off the early leaders. Gran Casique finds a nice spot to tackle elders for the first time and has the speed to impact this race.

SEVENTH RACE

Taking a stab with SILVER DEFENSE as he switches surfaces in return from a 252-day layoff. He ran some useful races on the turf once upon a time including a two-turn effort a couple of years ago in which he was cooked on a fast pace up front. Most recent dirt race at Tampa Bay came against two next-out winners (Legacy Azteca returned to hit the board in his next three starts with Beyers ranging from 67 to 77). Believe there should be enough pace for him to attack late. FORT KING figures part of the pace picture as he’s won three of five on the front end since being transferred to the Baxter barn. Had no issues getting to the lead last time out when downing next-out 75-Beyer winner Youshouldbesolucky, but might have to work a bit harder to grab the front in this tougher spot. EARTH handled four of these when returning from a short layoff and has the tactical speed to work out a pace-tracking, ground-saving trip. Seems to have found the right class level.

EIGHTH RACE

PANAREA has won three nd of her last four starts on dirt and was taken out of the last race by a barn that is 12 for 25 (48%, $3.53 ROI) over the past two years with newly-claimed runners. The second-place finisher from her most recent start returned to win by seven lengths with a 77 Beyer. Can get up close to the leaders and should be in with a big chance turning for home. BIBIANA occasionally has issues leaving the gate, but she’s pretty quick when she does break cleanly. Don’t think she cares for the turf and her slow start did her no favors last time out. Two back, she had a three-race win streak snapped after working hard in the early stages. Know her early. LAVI has some angles in her favor as she makes her third start of the form cycle, moves from turf to dirt and drops in for a tag for the first time in her career. She’s kept good company throughout her career and can threaten with a late bid given enough pace up front.

NINTH RACE

Although DYNATOWN received a lovely pace setup when rallying from out of it to score on the Fourth of July, it’s hard to deny her consistency on the turf. Expect her to lag back early hoping for the leaders to provide some help before uncorking her run turning for home. REAGAN’S ROSE hasn’t run on turf since being wired by Beautiful Ballad on October 12, 2019, but that was a strong field (last-place finisher Picara returned to win a stakes race at Gulfstream West with an 83 Beyer) and she has the tactical speed to get the jump on the top pick turning for home. Think she’ll appreciate getting away from dirt as she makes her third start of the form cycle. SAMMIE SUNSHINE is another that hasn’t raced on grass in awhile, but she’s performed admirably on the surface in the past and appears to be rounding back into form following runner-up effort behind favored Gibberish earlier in the month. CENTSLESS DRAMA is one to consider in multiple-race wagers as she worked hard on the front end last time out and might be able to catch a breather on the backstretch in this spot.

TENTH RACE

FROSTED GRACE has been somewhat frustrating as he often prefers minor awards to victories, but he’s cracked the trifecta in his last nine dirt starts and owns the best-last Beyer after finishing ahead of a couple of these earlier in the month. He was helped by a fast pace that day (the three pace horses ended up falling apart in the stretch) and it will be interesting to see if a similar situation presents itself here. TRAVY BOY gave a good effort free-wheeling on a fast pace in the Benny the Bull Stakes on September 6. While he is fast enough to make the lead, he doesn’t need it to be successful and think he’ll work out a nice pace-tracking trip while in the clear. ROYAL SQUEEZE won going third off the bench on May 31 and will attempt to repeat that pattern following two third-place finishes to begin this form cycle. Another that was helped by the pace scenario last time out. YODEL E.A. WHO was one of the unfortunate pace runners that paid the price for their early efforts on September 3. It might not be as difficult for him on the lead here as he goes second off a significant layoff.

ELEVENTH RACE

BIENVILLE STREET finished ahead of three of these when second to Saratoga invader Always Shopping in the Monroe Stakes on September 7. She utilized her good tactical speed to work out a nice trip in that spot and believe she’ll adapt to the expected quicker pace here. Expecting a solid late run and she usually offers good value for a low-profile barn. ALIZEE is still a “maiden” on turf, but she’s run some decent figures on the surface and was one of three next-out winners to emerge from that December 22 grass heat at Gulfstream. Makes third start of the form cycle here after getting caught up in a pace battle on dirt last time out. She’s tactical enough to rate and finish and believe she’ll tuck in behind the speeds with first run on the second turn. LOVELY LUVY has been in consistent form and might have been a bit too close to a solid pace in the Dayatthespa Stakes on August 9. Believe she’ll receive a kinder setup from closer to the back of the pack.