ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 13, WOLFE ‘N HAWKE

FIRST RACE

DALTON has a proven late kick and he lands in a race featuring a good amount of speed; this Smoke Glacken Stakes will mark his first try at six furlongs and he should appreciate the extra distance, as well as the equipment change, as trainer Jorge Duarte Jr. wins at an exceptional rate (42%) with horses adding blinkers for the first time. BASSO was a sharp winner in his debut, running to some solid works for trainer Greg Sacco; dangerous if he can rate off the pace and avoid a cutthroat battle up front. WAIST DEEP is the one to beat on the strength of his best Beyers and off that win in the one mile Sapling; figures to be involved from the start.

SECOND RACE

THE MIGHTY JUDGE has been trying to get back to the races but he has gotten rained off a few times; he turns up in a very good spot for trainer Jane Cibelli, as his Beyers are among the best in this field, and his running style suits the expected race flow perfectly as the pace should be quick and contested. AFFLUENTIAL is another who figures to take advantage of the expected pace scenario, and he has a strong late kick of his own; settled for the place in his latest but the winner had a huge pace edge and this gelding was running with interest at him late. HONEY DONT controlled the pace from the start in that score in his first start off the bench but he doesn’t necessarily need the lead; that versatility should mean he’s well positioned behind the likely duel.

THIRD RACE

Well aware that trainer Derek Ryan doesn’t win often with firsters but COUNTERFEITCURENCY is showing speed in his morning works and this is doesn’t seem to be an above-average field of statebred maidens; dam won two races, both sprints on the main track, and she was also stakes placed. POGI ran third in each of her first two starts to date, showing improvement in her second try; dangerous with another move forward. NO CENTS is clearly the one to beat after a slow start cost him in his well-bet debut; barn excels with secondtime starters and with 2-year-olds overall, but the price figures to be light once again.

FOURTH RACE

MIAMI CROCKETT had little chance in that route try last time, as he was caught up in a duel from the start and the race set up well for the closers, but he didn’t fall apart late despite that unfavorable set up and the fact that it was his first start around two turns; returns to his preferred game here, sprinting on the turf, and he’ll be a handful today if he runs to his best races. NO NAY MAYBE has high speed and will look to steal this, as he did his latest, when allowed a loose lead in a paceless race that was switched from grass to dirt; move to five furlongs figures to be to his advantage. HIGHWAYTWENTYSEVEN will have something to say about the pace scenario, as he has some speed of his own; this is his first start on the grass but trainer Kelly Breen does well enough with such runners.

FIFTH RACE

CRAFTY DON is widest in here but he does have tactical speed, and today’s addition of blinkers should only sharpen that early zip; trainer Pat McBurney has done well with that equipment change and this gelding will be a factor in the lane if he can sit off the speeds and make one run. LOVE IS YOUR NAME has the best figures in the field and has been facing better, thus making him the one to beat, likely at a relatively short price; his inside post and positional speed should translate to a favorable trip under the meet’s leading rider, Paco Lopez. STEFANO will be a pace factor from the start; he benefited from a forward trip in a paceless race last time but he merits respect off the resulting figure and the Beyer he posted in his maiden win.

SIXTH RACE

LIZARD KING is the first starter out of a dam who was best sprinting on the main track but trainer Chad Brown is of course always tough here with maidens on the grass; settled for the show in his debut on the main track but he can be expected to improve on the surface switch, as well as in his second career start, as Brown wins at 36% with such runners. BRINGING THE HEAT sprinted in his bow but was closing well late, and trainer John Stevens specializes in stretch-outs, winning at 22%, with a $4.84 ROI; could be the right value play in this race, especially if the top pick is overbet. DEMOCRATIC NORMS is the one to beat if this race is switch to the main track; solid try in his debut makes him easy to like, and he’s another making his second career start for Brown.

SEVENTH RACE

SAINTS MARCHING IN ran a solid race for the place in his local debut despite being floated wide on the turn, and he was flattered when the winner, Corot, returned to win again in his next start; that Beyer and his tactical speed add to the appeal. EL POTRO has solid recent figures of his own, and he also has tactical speed; he did benefit from ideal trips in those last two, sitting a perfect trip off the speeds last time and on a loose lead two back, but his Beyers can’t be ignored, and he and the top pick seem to have the edge on the rest. HIGH FIVE COTTON ran well in defeat two and three back, which is why he was well bet for that last one, but he faded with no real excuse as the heavy favorite last time; will perhaps resort to stalking tactics today, as he may be at his best with a target to run at.

EIGHTH RACE

VOLADOR rallied with interest along the inside to finish a solid 2nd in her latest, a very nice effort which came on the heels of a race that’s completely forgivable, when she lost her best chance due to traffic trouble; given a clean trip she should be able to run to her best Beyers for jockey Ferrin Peterson, who could be poised for a very nice afternoon. ALLERIA was a beaten favorite when last seen at Parx but a wide trip cost her some; she draws outside here but she does have the speed to work out a trip and she can be expected to be closer to the pace today under jockey Joe Bravo. MISMEYET has a decent late kick and she did improve last time in only her second career start on the green; she benefited from fast fractions in her latest to finish within two lengths of the winner but she should get a decent set up in this one as well.

NINTH RACE

BLINDED VISION wasn’t close in his last two, and the layoffs are concern when coupled with the fact that he was eased last time, but he had little chance in that return from the break last time when he was caught well off the speeds in a race loaded with same, as he has never shown he wants to pass horses late; he was also against the race flow in his prior pair but he could be the main speed in this sprint and he can steal it if he’s able to shake loose for the first time this year. JERSEY JOE B is inside the top pick and has some speed of his own; that could mean he sits just off the top pick, and he could inherit the lead if that rival were to weaken late. EIGHTS AND ACES may be the main danger in the lane; he rallied for the place last time behind the speedy winner and would benefit from faster early splits.

TENTH RACE

PIANZI has tactical speed and hails from a barn which excels when it come sto short races on the grass, and those are two traits that successful turf sprinters tend to have; dam never tried turf but she did produce a minor grass winner in Paper Street, and this gelding does figure to be use his early zip and inside post to work out a nice trip. OAK BLUFFS is an established turf sprinter, with 15 such wins to his credit, and the rest of this field has combined for a total of two victories under these circumstances; sub-par try in his latest can be chalked up to the yielding course, and his prior Beyers make him imposing in this spot. QUIBERON BAY lacks experience under these conditions but he showed promise in that first turf sprint try last time, finishing a close-up 2nd despite having to check when the show horse drifted out, and he wasn’t asked once his finish position was clinched; he galloped out past the winner and he figures tough here, another live runner for Peterson.

ELEVENTH RACE

MOJAC KAT gets back on the main track and this is the surface he seems to prefer; his most recent dirt races produced Beyers that fit well with this modest group and his positional speed should mean he’s well spotted from the start. CAUSE I SAID SO ships in from New York and meets lesser, and if he runs to that Beyer he posted two back he’s going to be very difficult to beat; the concern is the dull try last time, coupled with the drop, but he did have trouble at the start there and this may simply be the right level for him. CALEB THE BOSS has had his chances but he merits respect based on his last dirt try, when he managed to get the show despite a slow start and then having to chase controlled fractions up front.

TWELFTH RACE

GYPSUM JOHNNY seemed to run a non-descript third in his latest but that was actually a solid effort, as he rallied nicely after racing behind slow splits in a race that was light on speed; the winner of that race returned to score in his next start with a 76 Beyer, rating off the pace to score, and that only flatters this gelding, who figures to improve off that line given an honest pace up front. PAPA JOEL drops in class and moves off the grass and stands to improve given the surface switch and class relief; like the top pick he needs some help from the pacesetters but he should get it. PURCHASING POWER has been in search of that elusive third career win for a full year but his steady Beyers do put him in the mix with these; he was a remote 2nd in his latest but the winner had an overwhelming speed figure advantage against that field.

THIRTEENTH RACE

WOLFE ‘N HAWKE has run 2nd in three straight races but he has had his share of excuses, with his latest behind rained off the turf and an unfavorable race flow that gave the winner a huge edge two back; may have finally found the right spot, as his stretch run should be enhanced by an honest pace up front. HOLY GUACAMOLE doesn’t have the Beyers of the top pick but he’s been against severe race flows too, and he may be working toward his best race today as he makes his third start off the layoff. MORETHANACONQUEROR stretches out for the first time for trainer Holly Harris; dam was best sprinting on the turf but his sire, Artie Schiller, certainly was not, and this gelding had excuses in both of his two losses to date.