ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 9, TAPPITTY TAPPITTY

FIRST RACE

JOKERS RUN was bumped at the break before closing four-wide from off a slow pace for second when debuting in a five-furlong inner turf dash. Three-quarters on the main course should be suitable for the daughter of Noble Mission. LADY PETROL faded to fourth behind the top pick after attending the pace from a three-wide position at first asking in the same race. DONTPUSHYOURLUCK raced wide when sixth in the aforementioned event.

SECOND RACE

LAST AMERICAN EXIT got away slowly before closing from left field on a speed-favoring track for second when he got back on track last time out. ALL INCLUSIVE is dropping out of a restricted stakes and could be the dominant speed. KID FORESTER landed on the edges behind the top choice after making up ground from eighth in a deceptively good effort Sept. 19.

THIRD RACE

SLEEK LYNX stalked in fourth before flattening out to finish fifth behind the likes of Lady Speightspeare and Alda in the G1 Natalma Sept. 20. The daughter of War Front and G1 Canadian International winner Sarah Lynx is adding Lasix for this much easier maiden special weight sprint. AMERICAN BOURBON rallied for third at first asking in a five-furlong maiden special over the Arlington sod three weeks ago. IN MY OPINION is turning back to a suitable distance off a fade job in a fast-paced turf route.

FOURTH RACE

GO GIGI GO GIGI GO took the long way home from the back of the pack en route to a neck loss when dropping to this $15K NW2 class Oct. 2. CEFALO ran three solid races on both surfaces in as many starts at the meet. STARLIGHT RIDGE was a workmanlike maiden breaker for $25K when returning from an extended layoff Sept. 24.

FIFTH RACE

OCELOT has posted a series of five-furlong works since mid-September leading up to his debut in this six-furlong maiden special on turf, a surface for which he’s bred on both sides of his pedigree. McKnight has excellent stats with first-timers. CASH IN A FLASH broke slowly before checking in fourth at first asking on the Tapeta, from which the runner-up exited to romp in a restricted maiden special. The son of Uncle Mo is a half-brother to the versatile stakes winner Souper Escape. RIPTIDE ROCK worked a rapid five-eighths a week ago, a move which might be too close to his debut.

SIXTH RACE

SUNSPRITE set a lively pace before getting caught in deep stretch when second in the 7 1/2-furlong Victorian Queen Stakes three weeks ago. Her speed figures to make her dangerous in the five-furlong N1X on the same inner turf course. BIG BIG PLANS led the way before tiring last time in the G1 Natalma going a mile on the main course. SILENT GUROO was in fine turf form prior to coming up empty after a three-wide trip in the Victorian Queen.

SEVENTH RACE

SPIDER BELLE is dropping off a belated fourth in her season opener in a seven-furlong maiden special, from which runner-up Barkin exited to graduate impressively with an 83 Beyer. FABIOLLA is adding Stein and blinkers for her first North American try outside the maiden special ranks. Seven-eighths might be a touch farther than she wants to go. SOUPER PECAN placed in each of his last four excursions, most recently behind Hello Friends, who came back to run second in a NW2 OS/$40K sprint.

EIGHTH RACE

SOUPER SENSATIONAL ran to her advance billing when beating the promising Speightstown Shirl in her victorious debut, and there was nearly a 10-length gap back to the third horse. She’s since worked a bullet half-mile and should be favored to give trainer Mark Casse his ninth win in this stakes. JAVANICA is shortening up a furlong off a second-out maiden score going a mile on the grass at Arlington. Wilson and Harty combined to win a 2yo stakes here last year. CHARLIE’S PENNY earned the highest Beyer on the page (82) when romping on the front end in her five-furlong debut over Arlington’s Polytrack. She could get caught up in a speed duel with REINFORCED, who was green in her victorious bow.

NINTH RACE

Following a pair of seconds, TAPPITTY TAPPITTY cleared the first allowance condition by daylight Sept. 24 while earning her third straight 79 Beyer. This N2X didn’t come up all that tough, and she could double up with her confidence on a high. ABOVE ALL NAMES was competitive in three of her four outings at the meet, all at this level. MOONLIGHT RAIN is returning from a layoff and could handle the rest.

TENTH RACE

SPANISH BALLERINA figures to shake loose up front in this six-furlong N1X, and might not look back if she doesn’t go too fast early. BELIEVE IN BEAUTY brings pretty good turf form to this event, and note that she graduated on a synthetic surface in England. DOUBLE MEDAL, who was softened up in a speed duel last time, has done her best running from off the pace this year under Callaghan.

ELEVENTH RACE

LOOKINATAMIRACLE battled four-wide for the lead on the turn before tiring in the Oct. 3 Toronto Cup Stakes. He annexed his last sprint start from off the pace in a July 3 N1X, and is tagged for the first time in this NW3 OS/$40K sprint. ENNIS THE MENACE is dropping off a lapped-on second in an N1X turf sprint. SOUPER HOT is a must-use on the bottom of vertical wagers. ROCKCREST could be rejuvenated off a two-month vacation.

TWELFTH RACE

MITZI got hung out five-wide on the first turn after a troubled start en route to a fourth-place finish in her first turf try around two turns on the inner course three weeks ago. SILENT BUT VIOLENT should be favored off a belated fourth in the restricted Victorian Queen Stakes, with Stein getting the call. HADLEY is descending from a maiden special for her second start. VERY SAVVY was competitive in both of her outings under Hoyte.