ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 4, ROUGH SEA

FIRST RACE

There is more than a little speed in this race and that should set the table nicely for BACKWOODS BOOGIE. His upside is the best and he is a hard trying sort to begin with. The class drop and cut back go hand in hand with today’s good race flow. Alas, the price won’t allow for an early retirement. CANDY GRAM FORM ON GO isa clever ly named new gelding that goes for Ness off the claim. Connections find a good spot and this gelding seems to relish this dirt. We would have picked this horse on top if he had drawn outside. EXTRA MEDIUM closed nicely last out and should do the same today. Once again he gets some pace to chase. A better price than a few of these, right?

SECOND RACE

TWINSTINCT has never run poorly including two starts as a 2YO before the long layoff. His return try was solid and notice that he didn’t get a lot of play versus six foes when sent off at almost 6-1. It tells us that he should be better today and we are backed up with a 31% trainer angle when this barn goes second off a long layoff. Another plus is the switch from an inside/rail post to an outside draw. FUGITIVE is just logical. Back class is hard to miss and he goes for a barn that is 32% when they give a leg up to Russell. CHAMPIONSHIP ALLEY ran well 1 and 3 back with a troubled trip in between. He broke last in his most recent and that can be improved upon today. Race flow is more than fair for an off the pace try.

THIRD RACE

PHANTOM RO is feeling great and loves this dirt. He is 2 for 2 going this distance and once again gets in light. The rail draw isn’t our favorite going this distance but experienced gelding won’t care much if at all. HIGHER PURPOSE puts three races together for the first time since February and that tells us he is feeling good. That was a Beyer top in his most recent and this barn is a solid 22% with their repeating winners. He has the tactical speed to shadow our top pick. CRUSH IT was right there with a furlong to go two back versus stakes foes only to tire a tad. He flattened out in his most recent but that was over at Penn National. This gelding saves his best for this dirt and he draws better than most today.

FOURTH RACE

ROUGH SEA puts three races together for the first time since last summer and you have to like that. Connections take advantage of recent poor try to drop in class but his most recent was a troubled trip. He went wide two back when returning off the layoff. Gomez returns and he won with this gelding 4, 6, and 7 back. Race flow isn’t fast but it is fair. This horse has done all of his winning on this dirt and figures a fair price today. AIR TOKEN has won his last two and done so at odds of 16-1 and 6-1. He seems capable around two turns and this barn shows a flat bet profit with their horses that won their last start. MARYLANDER might be the value. This horse was getting good early in the year but then took some time off only to return and run poor twice. Works are sharp and perhaps this gelding is enjoying good health again.

FIFTH RACE

SICK PACK SARA finds a good spot and figures a better price partly due to the fact that this barn is 0 for 12 with their debut runners. That sample is not large so we can play ball with this filly. Sire gets 9% debut winners (all sire stats are for 2YO’s only). Her dam went 4-0-0-1 and earned 2K. Lone sibling is 15-3-2-1 and earned 37K while also winning 2YO debut. This barn does show a flat bet profit with their maiden claimers. IN VAIN was stuck on the rail in her debut and of course she broke 2nd to last. Two of three sibs beat winners to the tune of 180K and 211K. This barn is 20% with their second time starters. KEEPYOURSKATESON won her debut but was DQ’d. Her most recent was a Beyer top. Lack of speed is a small knock. SALLY’S MUSTANG is by a 9% debut sire. Her dam went 15-1-3-3 and earned 66K. Two of three sibs won. CHARGINA is by a 16% debut sire. Her dam went 25-4-5-4 and earned 183K. This is dam’s first foal. SEE THAT GIRL is by a 8% debut sire. Her dam went 10-1-0-0 and earned 59K. All 8 sibs won with 5 having beat winners.