ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 7, ARMANDO’S TEAM

FIRST RACE

LARGE has never run poorly and that has to count for something. He can fire fresh if his debut back in March is any indication (3rd with a poor break). If you discount that try two back when stuck on the rail going 6 1/2 furlongs and on a good track then he looks even better. Lots of speed in here so if able to stalk then even better. COMPANY STORE can pass runners, goes third off the break, draws much better, just lost as the chalk, tries this dirt for the first time, and switches barns. Three out of six ain’t half bad? DISTURBINGTHEPEACE passed foes in his debut so perhaps he can do the same today. He does draw outside which would be ideal for a stalk and go trip. This barn is 19% off this type of layoff.

SECOND RACE

DOWNTOWNER is one of many with a legit shot in here. We think ‘cappers will turn down their forms when they see those Prairie Meadow lines which will in turn help the price. This gelding just likes to win and figures as good a trip as anyone. INDIMAAJ just won when first on this dirt and got a Beyer top in the process. It is never too early to declare a horse for course. Class jump is a good sign. GENERAL PADDY has won 7 of 12 on this dirt and is a horse for course. A stalking trip like many and that is fine. That was a nice confidence boost last out as the chalk when winning EZ.

THIRD RACE

TOP BOMB is a new turf horse as every good effort came on the green while dirt not so much. Turf breeding is very good so that makes perfect sense. This colt had some trouble in his most recent but you can see that, right? He draws a tad better today and gets a new pilot. KICK IT CHARLIE has some decent tries up at PID but it was his turf debut in his most recent that intrigues us. He didn’t get a clean trip but still beat over half the field home. Turf breeding is rock solid. RAMSES is a Godolphin runner that tries maiden claimers and there is something you don’t see very often. Sire gets 15% debut turf winners. His dam went 12-5-2-3 and won 450K including 133K on the grass. This is dam’s first foal. First time gelding gets blinkers and that along with a Belterra debut is just plain scary. BEACH WARRIOR is by a 8% debut and debut turf sire. His dam went 9-1-1-1 for 34K (0 for 1 turf). Two of four sibs won while two tried and lost on the grass (one hit the board). STAYIN OR STRAYIN is by a 10% debut sire and a 6% debut turf sire. His dam was un-raced and this is her first foal.

FOURTH RACE

POWERFUL MOON should like two turns. His dam is a multiple route winner. Two of three sibs won routing. This gelding comes in fresh and has some speed all while drawing outside main pace foes. BEDAZZLING may not have cared for the grass in his last couple while turf breeding not so hot anyway. One of two sibs won 155K while routing. ALL FOOLS DAY tried a not so easy seven furlongs in his debut where he showed speed and tired. A good set up for today’s move to two turns. Is this the speed? We would think so.

FIFTH RACE

EL TOTO tried a flat mile in his turf debut at Colonial three back and that is a tough and tiring spot. He beat a few home nonetheless. Special weights two back going short wasn’t any easier and again at Colonial. His most recent was a nice even try and now this guy goes second time this sod while again drawing the rail. SWIFT KID was getting good at Monmouth but then the meet ended. His most recent came here and although he did little we can easily forgive that try. Turf breeding is very good and Camacho takes over. CHARLIEWITHAHARLEY is by a 20% debut turf sire. His dam never tried the green while lone sib missed the board in only turf start. This colt might have the best turf breeding in the field. SENORITA AURORA is by a 15% debut sire and a 6% debut turf sire. Her dam went 38-58-7 and earned 80K (14K on the green). All 3 sibs won with 2 having beaten winners (one debut 2YO winner). Lone turf sib is 4-0-0-0. CHANNEL MAN

is by a 8% debut sire and a 10% debut turf sire. His dam went 8-1-0-2 and earned 18K (1-0-0-0 on the turf). This is dam’s first foal.

SIXTH RACE

STEEL SHOT was getting good at Indiana Downs and the racing there is getting better by the minute. He then shipped to GP where he broke dead last before beating a few home. We like the move here. He drops into restricted foes and gets a little pace to chase all from an inside post that isn’t the rail. MISTER STORM has speed but can stalk just as easily. Local tab is quite sharp as was his return try here. The obvious horse but is he too obvious? ROCKYSBUCKAROO has won here and did get a nice confidence boost last out at Monmouth and that was a Beyer top. He has a local work which is nice but this barn is 0 for 20 with horses that won their last race.

SEVENTH RACE

ARMANDO’S TEAM figures a great trip as there is some pace in here. He gets to save all the early ground from his rail draw. His turf debut was very nice and it came way back in April so he is more mature now. Nothing wrong with that maiden breaker three back and notice that connections wanted the grass but it got washed off. Slop or bounce two back while last not a clean trip. It all comes together today. BEE MAJOR has some speed but should stalk in this spot and that is actually good. Lone win came on the grass while turf breeding decent. MOUNTAIN HOLIDAY wins this if he can regain his turf form from 2019. His most recent was better and he was pressured most of the way. This post hurts and the inside speed could mean some lost ground on that first turn.

EIGHTH RACE

STATED was buried on the rail going seven panels in her most recent but won anyway and did so nicely. We like that connections want an elongated sprint right back but this time with a better post. This barn is 24% with horses that won their last race. LIGHTS DOWN LOW just won when first on this dirt. She adds a full furlong to what might be her best distance (4-1-2-0). This barn is 24% with horses that won their last race. We love this post and it goes hand in hand with her tactical speed. PAPA’S ISLA DOLL is the inside speed. This mare likes to win and she figures a decent price. Second time here is a plus but there is other zip to worry about.

NINTH RACE

BIG RED ROCKS has tried nothing but turf routes in his three race career and we love that. Turf breeding is very good. This colt draws inside the other speed and comes in fresh which will sharpen his zip that much more. New barn is 1 for 3 off the claim. Connections find a good spot. MILBURN is a proven turf horse that has won on this green before. Camacho up is a plus. THE SPIDER is by a 8% debut turf sire. His dam never tried the green and neither did lone sib. Trainer stats are intriguing and we just think this guy will like two turns on the green. Don’t forget about the good price.