ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 5, ARMANDO’S TEAM

FIRST RACE

SEWEL broke horrendously from the rail in that debut try, immediately losing any chance of even hitting the board, but he draws better today for trainer Tim Hamm; obviously stands to improve if he can get away cleanly, as he did take some money for that first race, which featured a winning Beyer that was much faster than par. MARK ME comes out of the same race as the top pick and he also broke slowly, and the fact that he got loose before the start didn’t help his cause; leading trainer Gerald Bennett has very good stats with horses making their 2nd career starts. ON DUTY is the one to catch and perhaps the one to beat, even if he goes further today after stopping on a loose lead going 6 1/2 furlongs in his latest.

SECOND RACE

JUSTLYREWARDED turns back from a route and switches back to the main track after a decent try on the grass in his latest; most recent dirt sprint, two back, wasn’t bad at all, as the final time was quick and it was a race that has produced two next-out winners. MARSAC is at his lowest level yet in his first start off the short layoff, which can be taken either way, but he does have speed and the rail, and back figures that are plenty good enough to win this; easy to like. PAPA LUKE was a beaten favorite in his local debut and he’s up in class for this but he has proven early zip and he makes his first start off the claim; will be a factor from the start.

THIRD RACE

MAN OF MEN makes his career debut for trainer Gerald Bennett and that alone makes him a threat, as the meet’s top barn wins at a high rate with debut runners, particularly in maiden claimers; the fact that the stakes-placed dam won her own debut and has produced two winners from three starters adds to the appeal. ABUELO NUNO was 2nd in both of his two local starts to date, and he now makes his third start off the layoff; he was no real threat to the winners in either of those two starts but take note of the slow starts, which cost him early position. FLIPPING FUN was also off slow in his last two, and those were sprints that were relatively short on pace; goes longer today and should be a factor from the start — assuming he breaks with the field.

FOURTH RACE

NEFARIOUS FELLA didn’t do much running in his first and only start on the grass to date but now he races with Lasix, and he comes off a deceptively good try in his last pair, when against the race flow; he’s a bit of a guess in a wide open race but the dam did produce two prior turf winners. WILD CHASE is another who would qualify as a stab but he does race with Lasix for the first time and the barn’s specialty is with horses stretching out from sprints to routes; no threat in his debut but he was slow into stride and that was a swift sprint. OUR STUIE is the first starter out of the dam, who posted her lone career win on the turf; no chance after breaking slowly in that first start off the layoff, as there was not a great deal of speed in that field.

FIFTH RACE

ARMANDO’S TEAM stayed in the race even when it came off the turf last time out and he ran a strong race in defeat, and even looked like a winner when he made a big move to the lead, before he flattened out late; showed good late foot on the grass in his prior tries, posting steady figures, and he has license to make the last run here given a quick, contested pace up front. FLY NIGHTLY steps up a level after a narrow win against non-winners of two lifetime in his latest but he has been sharp all meet long, and that last figure gives him strong credibility; he’s another who stands to benefit from the expected race flow. IDLE TIME disappointed as the favorite when at this level last time, and while he fits very well off that line and his best figures he’s going to be a short price once again, and he’ll need to work out a trip from the hedge.

SIXTH RACE

EASTER CHOCOLATE was 2nd in each of her first two starts, against maiden claimers, and while she meets better here she could well be the controlling speed on the stretch-out to routes; pedigree doesn’t offer a lot of clues as to her ability to handle the distance but this is a short field and there’s not a lot of obvious pace, making it likely she’ll be able to back down the tempo. FORBIDDEN DREAM was hurt by the race flow in her latest but she should be expected to be closer to the pace today, as she had some traffic trouble in the opening stages of that last one; prior Beyers put her in the mix and she should be a square price. BABY GUNDIN made a run at the lead but couldn’t sustain her bid and ended up a remote 2nd in her latest; logical enough, though she could be overbet here despite lacking a clear edge in Beyers.

SEVENTH RACE

DIXIELAND DARLING hasn’t been out since late December but she is working very well towards her return for trainer Mike Dini; stone closer needs help from the pacesetters but there does seem to be ample speed to her outside to set her up for a late run. MISS TOURISTA had a sharp set of works leading up to her debut and she ran to them, posting a rare first-out win for trainer Derek Ryan; turned in another nice breeze last week and capable of repeating if she gets a clean trip and a favorable race flow. BALL LIGHTNING gets Lasix for her first start off the claim for high-percentage trainer Darien Rodriguez, who is especially tough with new faces; first time going two turns, she figures to be part of the early mix.

EIGHTH RACE

Still waiting for BRICE to run to that lofty Beyer he posted three back but he did have excuses in two subsequent losses, unable to make the lead against a much better field in his next start and caught up in a duel last time, through a fast middle fraction; could prove tough to reel in if able to shake loose easily enough in the early stages. SILVER EDGE could have something to say about that, as he has some speed of his own, even if he was forced to come from off the pace last time, in a race that featured several speeds (note the “C” symbol in DRF pp’s, indicating the race set up for Closers); main foe to the top pic, both in terms of pace as well as in terms of winning the race. MOZANO faded after stalking the pace in his first start at this level last time, in a race rained off the turf, but he merits respect based on the Beyer he posted two back in the win against a step lesser.

NINTH RACE

D’CRAZINESS has been posting steady figures all meet long, and though he was off the board in each of his last two he didn’t have the race flow in his favor either time, especially in his latest, when Silent Jet was able to control the issue on an uncontested lead and he wired the field with relative ease; looking for a different pace scenario today, one that would work to that advantage of this 8-year-old, who has a solid late kick under the right circumstances. RUDIGER has little tactical speed but he’s another who can run them all down given a clean trip and an honest pace; first start since the summer but he’s not in for the tag and he is more than capable if he can run to his best back figures. Last time out, at this same level, SILENT JET took full advantage of a lack of pace in the field to get clear in the opening stages and he was never threatened; has to be respected but he will have trouble repeating that career-best Beyer without another ideal trip.