FIFTH RACE

NIMBOSTRATUS drops to N1X as one of the more probable winners on the card, based on her solid third last out in a G3 at this six-furlong trip. She was forwardly placed behind a hot pace, made a run at the pacesetter in deep stretch, and missed by only a length and a quarter. The winner Going Global was one of the favorites in the China Doll Stakes, race 1. Shipper DANCING CRANE was purchased privately after her third win from six starts in Florida. She had little behind her in her recent win (two-three finishers ran back and finished nowhere), but trainer Mark Glatt won with 6 of his last 13 domestic-shipper acquisitions. DANCING CRANE has speed, and SQUARED SHADY has more gas than she showed last. She lost position at the break, lost ground wide into the lane, and missed by less than five lengths in the same race the top choice exits. Good effort. WESTWARD BREZE is first-time Lasix, route to sprint, and an upset candidate.

SIXTH RACE

This Grade 2 route for 3yos is the opening leg of the mandatory-payout pick six. From the rail, front-runner LIFE IS GOOD has no option but use his speed. The style worked well so far; ‘GOOD dazzled in a maiden sprint, then scored a highly rated win in a Grade 3 route. Though his margin diminished late, perhaps he simply lost interest. Since that race two months ago, LIFE IS GOOD has trained like the top-class colt he is developing into. Come catch him, although a legit rival will breathing down his neck. He is THE GREAT ONE, who gradually improved though 2020 and followed his December runner-up in a G2 with a highly rated maiden blowout on this track. He has speed, is drawn outside the favorite, and should get a great trip forwardly placed in the clear. Meanwhile, the possibility of a contested pace benefits improving late-runner ROMAN CENTURIAN. Improving each start, his pedigree suggests he will continue to develop. His closing style is opposite the top pair. If the favorites mix it up early, ROMAN CENTURIAN could post a come-from-behind upset. MEDINA SPIRIT finished only three-quarters behind the top choice two back; he defeated ‘CENTURIAN last out. DREAM SHAKE stretches out following a fast maiden sprint.

SEVENTH RACE

If he settles down with his new rider, rather than his hard-pulling habit, WHISPER NOT can win this N1X turf mile. He got revved up last time, made the lead early and set fast fractions while unrelaxed, and got collared. Rider switch to Flavien

Prat, shortening in distance, the one to beat. CLUB ASPEN looms the upset candidate exiting the same race. He was running a mile and one-eighth off just a pair of comeback sprints, and might have been a short horse. Now he has a long route under his belt, cuts back to a mile, and looms a genuine contender from off the pace. TRIPOLI stretches back to a route and is reunited with Umberto Rispoli, who rode him both previous highly rated races. RIP CITY had his win streak snapped at four, but he ran well last out under similar conditions, losing by a nose. Not sure if he will get the same easy lead, however.

EIGHTH RACE

Troubled runner-up last out in a Cal-bred stakes race at six furlongs, late-runner TIGRE DI SLUGO can turn the tables on winner BRICKYARD RIDE as they both stretch to seven furlongs. The distance is ideal for ‘SLUGO, who might have defeated his rival last out except for an unlucky trip. He lagged early, commenced a rally into the turn, then steadied, shuffled, and lost position. He re-rallied, finished well, but the leader was gone. Seven furlongs and an outside post are perfect for ‘SLUGO. But he can only win if BRICKYARD RIDE does not stay the distance. The speed of the field, ‘RIDE stretches out another furlong after the fastest win of his career, a 99-Beyer wire job. Not sure if he will stay; pacesetters this meet are only 1-for-12 at seven furlongs. Could be an interesting final furlong for the speed of the field. MANHATTAN UP enters with an upset chance, returning to preferred footing (dirt) and shortening to one turn. Look for him late, at a price. LOUD MOUTH, a Cal-bred stakes winner at this seven-furlong trip, could sit second behind the speed. If BRICKYARD hits a wall, LOUD MOUTH would get first run.

NINTH RACE

Multiple contenders in this G1 turf mile, but if locally based HIT THE ROAD runs two alike, it will take a very good horse to beat him. ‘ROAD smoked the meet’s fastest turf mile (1:33.35) last out, winning with a sharp :22.90 final quarter. He reportedly trained well since that race a month ago, and gets a class test moving up from G3. East Coast shipper FLAVIUS runs for the first time since finishing second in the G2 Seabiscuit in fall at Del Mar. Chad Brown-trained shippers always merit respect on this circuit. The past five years, excluding Breeders’ Cup races, Brown is 11-for-33 in California G1s on turf. Based on speed figures, FLAVIUS is among the fastest in the field. SMOOTH LIKE STRAIT also gets a class test, first time against older after winning 6 of 11 turf starts against his age group including five stakes. ROYAL

SHIP, G1 winner in Brazil but somewhat modest in the U.S., has been gelded since his last start. He could improve.

TENTH RACE

EXPRESS TRAIN has plenty going for him the Santa Anita Handicap. He likes the SA surface; he made his own perfect trip last time and scored a decisive G2 win by more than three lengths. He has tactical speed in a race without much pace, he trained well since his last-out smasher, and gives every indication he can stretch out another eighth to a mile and one quarter. INDEPENDENCE HALL parlayed a perfect trip in the G1 Pegasus to a solid third. Both he and the top choice benefitted by circumstances last out, but the likelihood of a tepid pace suggests a similar trip. ‘HALL in particular can use his speed to establish a forward position while saving ground, which is exactly how he ran so well last out. Undefeated MAXFIELD arrives from Louisiana with much pre-race attention. He looked good winning both recent starts over the unheralded Sonneman. MAXFIELD is fast on numbers, and he has run well on three different racetracks. In theory, he should be fine over this surface. He arrived Monday, trained here all week, and will be running late. IDOL had compromising trips both recent starts; he gets a beneficial rider switch to Joel Rosario and wants every bit of this mile and a quarter distance. KISS TODAY GOODBYE looms the knockout. His Florida race can be disregarded; he did not like the Gulfstream surface. ‘GOODBYE won a G2 at Santa Anita in December. TIZAMAGICIAN is speed; KING GUILLERMO reportedly has trained better since his last-place local debut.

ELEVENTH RACE

Second-start maiden DEFUNDED is ready to fire first start since a better-than-looked third last summer. He was fractious in the gate, not quick from the rail, shuffled slightly on the turn, waited behind runners, and finished evenly. Not bad. He has always kept good company in morning works; last summer he outworked subsequent stakes winners Concert Tour and Kalypso. This winter he outworked graded stakes runner-up Dessman in a five-furlong gate work Feb. 17. All systems go first start back for the first-time gelding. MR. IMPOSSIBLE hit the board twice this meet against top company including Concert Tour and San Felipe entrant Dream Shake. The sibling to graded stakes winner Harvest Moon has upside. Firsttime starter PATRON D’ORO posted a series of fast works for his debut; trainer Brian Koriner won with two of his last three debut runners at this meet. Firster VANTAGE POINT has been working fast at San Luis Rey.