ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 2, LOVE ME TOMORROW

FIRST RACE

B C GLORY DAYS has come up short in each of his first two starts, both going a mile over wet tracks, most recently failing as a heavy favorite after taking pressure all the way; probably took a step backward in that last one but will give him one more chance as he cuts back a bit for this. ONE WHIRLWIND RIDE looked like he had that race won three back on the drop when he lost his rider in the stretch, and he came right back to just miss in his next start vs. MSW rivals with a 72 Beyer; caught a wet track last time and did not have a great trip in the faster division of NY-bred MSW. GREY QUEST appears to be training pretty well up to this debut and he picks up a top rider for a trainer who sent out a debut winner here last month at 26:1.

SECOND RACE

LOVE ME TOMORROW finally broke through with a maiden win over this distance in December, then was done in by a conservative ride going a mile three back in a race that represented another step forward; lost all chance when breaking on her face in her 2021 debut and she ran fine on the cut back last time when contesting the pace from the start and only weakening late; back quickly for a trainer who sent out Skylar’s Scramjet to win on a sevenday turnaround last month. CHARLOTTE WEBLEY faced a better horse at this level when back on fast dirt two back and settled for second-best, and she wound up contesting the pace in a race that went to closers last time; nicely drawn on the outside for this and her recent form makes her a strong contender here. JARA dropped for the first time making her 2021 debut and tired after chasing the pace and failing to reach the leaders; right back at the same level while cutting back to sprint off the claim.

THIRD RACE

BACK CHANNEL failed to get her maiden win last year despite running quite well in each of her first four starts, and she ended that campaign the wrong way when bombing as a heavy favorite vs. a weak field, though she received a ridiculous ride that day; starts back going long for the first time for a new trainer and is supposed to be tough if getting back to one of her good races. STRAFE debuted sprinting vs. colts and didn’t run poorly while weakening late and settling for second vs. only three others; half-sister to three stakes winners, including Gazelle winner Lewis Bay, stretches right out. AUNT KAT didn’t show all that much while debuting over a mile at the end of last year, then stretched out to this distance for her second start vs. the boys, and tired in the stretch after showing improved speed; hasn’t done all that much to get excited about to begin her career but it is hard to argue with this spot.

FOURTH RACE

HARDCORE FOLKLORE won his first two starts back over this track shortly after being claimed, both over this distance and for this tag, and has seen his form tail off a bit since then; fits well in this field with one of his good efforts and he seemed to take a step forward last time when rallying for second behind a class-dropping winner. HEAVY ROLLER, like the top one, has tailed off from his top races recently, but he ran fine when wired by Flowers for Lisa two starts back, and he was compromised by an outside trip on a day when the rail was strong last time; drops slightly again looking for a longoverdue win. SCARF IT DOWN doesn’t win often but he has the races to contend with this field if he can work out the right trip; didn’t look comfortable while getting outrun early in that last one but his prior two starts over fast dirt would give him a real chance in here.

FIFTH RACE

BRUSH COUNTRY won his first start off the claim