ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 4, NAME REJECTED

FIRST RACE

It is Rebel Day at Oaklawn and also the first start of the year for resident champion Whitmore, who goes in the Hot Springs. Overall, there are five stakes on the card. In the opener, MONTGOMERY PARK and FOUETTE both shorten up some in distance and the move seems to suit both at this time. The fillies will also be first Lasix. FOUETTE is a half-sister to stakes winner Workaholic ($144K). The first-time starter H’RAYFORCABERNEIGH shows an ultra-sharp gate work in her final prep for her debut. She is by a stallion who is getting 13 percent debut winners. H’RAYFORCABERNEIGH is a half-sister to Mr. Jagermeister ($605K), an eight-time stakes winner who goes later on the card in the Hot Springs.

SECOND RACE

MY GRACE draws the rail in large field of sprinters, but like that she’s run well from an inside post in the past. She showed speed throughout in that race. MY GRACE also has an age edge on some of these as she is 4. KABOOM BABY owns the field’s best career Beyer Speed Figure, for a runner-up finish at this level and distance last out at Oaklawn. JANET’S ROCKET is a half-sister to Ms Fifty First St., who has placed in a pair of local stakes and overall has won three races and earned $170K. The sire and dam of RUN FEARLESS both had stakes success at Oaklawn.

THIRD RACE

AMERICAN MANDATE is a consistent performer who owns one of the field’s best collections of Beyer Figures. Asmussen and Santana team together here and the meet’s leading trainer and jockey have been known to have big days on big days at Oaklawn. BREAKING NEWS might get the right kind of pace setup behind a handful of these. ALOHA WEST meets winners for the first time, but owns the field’s best last-race Beyer Speed Figure. He earned the 84 in his debut last out at Oaklawn. ALOHA WEST is from a Grade 3-winning mare who ran out $277K.

FOURTH RACE

NAME REJECTED has been right there in each of his starts at the meet and the Beyer Figures he earned for those races are the best career numbers in this field. As for company lines, note NAME REJECTED hooked eventual Grade 2 Risen Star winner Mandaloun in what was this one’s debut last October at Keeneland. AIR SHOW ran a credible third in his debut last out and the Beyer Figure of 67 that he earned stacks up favorably in this spot. The outside draw could give Arrieta options. BATTLE HYMN is by a top class stallion in Tapit, who is getting 14 percent debut winners. This one’s dam was a multiple Grade 2 winner who earned $1.5M.

She has produced the stakes winners Giant Mover ($163K) and Maleeh ($158K). BATTLE HYMN shows some strong works for Jones, who wins at an above average rate with first-time starters, according to statistics from Daily Racing Form. GOLDEN FLASH is by a top stallion in Into Mischief, who is getting 16 percent debut winners. This one’s dam was unraced, but is a 100 percent producer, with six winners from six foals to race. CRYO is a half-brother to Grade 2 winner Dust and Diamonds ($496K).

FIFTH RACE

It will be interesting to see how the pace develops for the Azeri. LETRUSKA might prove to be the dominant speed here, based in part on her wireto-wire win at a one-turn mile configuration in the Grade 3 Rampart. She came back one start later and won at this mile and a sixteenth distance in the Grade 3 Houston Ladies Classic. A drawback is that she will be spotting her rivals between three and seven pounds each, per the conditions of the race. ENVOUTANTE wired her rivals last out in the Grade 2 Falls City, but that was over a mile and an eighth. The last time she raced over a mile and a sixteenth, she rallied from just off the pace to win the Grade 3 Remington Park Oaks. SHEDARESTHEDEVIL might pose the biggest pace threat to LETRUSKA. The winner of last year’s Kentucky Oaks, she last raced in October and set a brisk pace in the Grade 1 Spinster. SHEDARESTHEDEVIL is a fresh horse here and could sit just off LETRUSKA, who is drawn to her inside. MOTION EMOTION is another filly with speed, and it will be interesting to see where she lands after racing on the front end with LETRUSKA in the Houston Ladies Classic, a race in which she broke from the rail in her first start since August. If they all go here, it would well-serve serious closer GETRIDOFWHATAILESU.

SIXTH RACE

ASHAAR might prove to be the controlling speed in this spot. He is making his two-turn debut after setting the pace at a one-turn mile configuration last out at Gulfstream Park. The fifth-place finisher from that race, Summer Kid, came back in his next start to win a first-level allowance at GP with a Beyer of 85 and the seventh-place finisher, Don Bourbon, another first-level allowance, at Tampa, with a Beyer of 80. On a pedigree point, ASHAAR is a half-brother to a pair of stakes winners, including Group 2 winner Mendip ($895K). CLAYTNTHELIONHEART is a two-time winner facing some lessexperienced rivals. EXCESSION is Grade 2-placed at Oaklawn. BELIEVEINHOLIDAYS is from a Grade 1-winning mare, while AASR’s dam was a multiple Grade 2 winner of $610K. Another of interest is TRIDENT HIT.

SEVENTH RACE

TAX could become a millionaire Saturday in the Essex Handicap. The Grade 2 winner is the starting highweight and he has a chance to control the pace based on his standout performance two races back in the Harlans’s Holiday at Gulfstream. For that effort, TAX earned a Beyer Speed Figure of 105, which is the best career number in the Essex. TAX also will be back on Lasix after racing without the diuretic last time as dictated by the “conditions” of the Pegasus World Cup Invitational. SILVER STATE is seeking his fourth consecutive win. His streak includes a stakes victory over the Oaklawn surface, in the Fifth Season at a mile in January. On the move to a mile and a sixteenth, he could get a nice tracking trip off TAX. HARPERS FIRST RIDE hit triple digits on the Beyer scale in three races last year, with his top number a 101 for his victory in the Pimlico Special. Grade 2 winner GREEN LIGHT GO is a new face to the division and in his two-turn debut could show the way against these or he could sit just off TAX, who is drawn to his inside Saturday.

EIGHTH RACE

ROYAL DAAHER was favored at this level last time and beaten less than a length for everything after a less than ideal trip. The race also went in good time. ROYAL DAAHER is from a Grade 3-placed mare who has produced a seven-time winner in the multiple stakes-placed Game Time Decision ($261K). ONE FOR RICHIE dominated in good time last out and earned a hearty Beyer Speed Figure of 96. ANCIENT WARRIOR was third to a quality kind of winner last out in Hidden Scroll.

NINTH RACE

PLAINSMAN gets a distance test in the Temperence Hill, as these go a mile and a half. He registered his biggest career win over a mile and an eighth, in the Grade 3 Discover at Aqu. PLAINSMAN could control the pace against these, after racing on the lead over a mile last out when second to millionaire Snapper Sinclair, who, according to his trainer, Asmussen, is now headed overseas for the Group 2 Godolphin Mile. Grade 3 winner

YOU’RE TO BLAME exits same race as top choice, which served as his first out since November. He now moves back to the marathon world and he’s well-versed at this extended route sort of trip.

CAMPAIGN is, too, as the winner of a pair of Grade 3 races at this mile and a half distance, the Tokyo City at SA and the Cougar II at Del Mar. This marks his second start since last March.

TENTH RACE

Champion WHITMORE launches his season in this afternoon’s Hot Springs, a race he has won a record four times. He is making his first start since a November win in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint, and since the race seventh-place finisher Hog Creek Hustle has come back to win an allowance at Churchill with a Beyer of 93 and 11th-place finisher Frank’s Rockette, the American Beauty at Oaklawn, with a Beyer of 92. As for WHITMORE, the Beyer of 104 that he earned in the BC is the best last-race number in the Hot Springs. C Z ROCKET was the runner-up in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint after a less than ideal trip and shows some nice works for what will be his first start of the season, too. C Z ROCKET won a pair of Grade 2 races last year in Southern California and aside from his record is appealing for his tactical speed. BOLDOR seeks his third consecutive stakes win, with his latest coming over the local strip in the King Cotton in January. MR. JAGERMEISTER is a threat to wire the field off a bullet work in 58.80 seconds at Oaklawn.

ELEVENTH RACE

CONCERT TOUR makes his much anticipated two-turn debut in the Grade 2, $1 million Rebel and he could show the way against these or get an ideal tracking trip off a few runners tucked to his inside. CONCERT TOUR is an accomplished sort as an unbeaten Grade 2 winner - and he also owns the field’s best career Beyer Speed Figure. His trainer, Baffert, has won seven runnings of the Rebel, including last year’s with Nadal, who like CONCERT TOUR came into the race off a win at seven-eighths in the San Vicente at SA. KEEPMEINMIND can take advantage were a few of these to make for some hot fractions up front. He used his closing kick to win his maiden last out in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill Downs. Prior to the race, he had placed in the Breeders’ Futurity and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, both won by eventual champion Essential Quality. GET HER NUMBER is the most accomplished member of the field as a Grade 1 winner, taking the American Pharoah at SA over a couple of runners who came back to win graded races, Rombauer and Spielberg. CADDO RIVER is already a stakes winner at Oaklawn, in the Smarty Jones.

TWELFTH RACE

TRUCULENT was second at this level last time and his speed should serve him well shortening up from mile and a sixteenth to a mile. This race will end at the sixteenth pole. SOLOMONIC was favored at this level last out. KATZARELLI is from a stakes-winning mare who banked $202K. Another of interest is ORO DE TEJANO.

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