ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 7, GREGORIAN CHANT

FIRST RACE

DANIEL’S MAGIC may have been best last time in a similar maiden-claiming turf sprint. He tucked third on the rail in a good spot, but checked sharply when room did not materialize into the lane, lost momentum, re-rallied, and finished fast for second. He galloped out in front. Back at the same level and same course, he can win with a clean trip. However, second-time starter GERLACH’S also is sure to improve. He broke poorly in his debut, was rated, and stayed at the back. Based on video replay, he has more speed than he was allowed to show. He adds blinkers and Lasix, and has a race under his belt. Expect better. CHASING FAME drops from special-weight to maiden-claiming. He faced good company all five MSW starts. Uncertain if turf is his preferred footing, but he does get class relief. Stablemates JUNE GLOOM (second-time starter) and NERVES OF STEEL (first-time California) are eligible to improve.

SECOND RACE

TRIPLE TAP, sired by Tapit and a sibling to Triple Crown winner American Pharoah and G1 winner Chasing Yesterday, debuts with a string of fancy works and an outside post against a small field. He held his own working in company with graded stakes winner Medina Spirit on Feb. 27 (work viewed on XBTV.com), followed by a bullet gate move last weekend. Ready to roll, it appears. His main rival is stablemate BARRAZA, who adds Lasix after fading his first two starts. He might be better than shown, and finally gets off the rail for his third start. EYES OPEN misfired in a turf route; he finished in the money his first three starts, all dirt sprints. His stablemate JOHAN ZOFFANI will rally late.

THIRD RACE

Two-time winner MAC DADDY TOO and sharp maiden winner COULTHARD are tough to separate in this allowance turf sprint. The call is MAC DADDY TOO, who faced better than his rival and has more early speed in a race with only one other apparent front-runner. ‘DADDY drops from a third in a stakes race, and should get a front-running or pace-pressing trip outside the pace rival on his inside. He will get first run. However, the U.S. debut by COULTHARD was very good. He steadied twice early, was taken very wide into the lane, and ran past to win going away. The knock is he beat a field of creampuffs. Five that finished behind him ran back, producing only a single third-place finish. Still, COULTHARD was visually impressive. GOOD WITH PEOPLE is the aforementioned frontrunner on the rail. He is a two-time stakes winner vs. Cal-breds, adds Lasix, and will force the issue early.

FOURTH RACE

MR. LOVEJOY returns from a three-month layoff in a starter allowance from which he cannot be claimed. The placement signals optimism, the 14-time winner fits the conditions perfectly. This is a $25k claiming starter; he finished third and second both recent races at the level. First off the claim, the challenge is pace. He faces speed inside and outside. LITTLEBITAMEDAL would benefit by a pace duel. Claimed for $16k last out from a third-place finish, he will rally late in a race likely to unfold at a contested pace. FANTASTIC DAY was overmatched in a N1X last out; his fast win two back at Turf Paradise puts him in the hunt from off the pace. DARK HEDGE has speed, but is buried on the rail; Woodbine shipper ELECTRONIK adds more heat.

FIFTH RACE

Late-runner TROPICAL TERROR was compromised by slow fractions last out; his rally was ineffective in a race mostly dominated by speed. He stretches back out to the mile and one-quarter distance of his only win. He is a six-time runner-up, therefore perhaps difficult to trust, but the one to beat nonetheless. BIG BUZZ has not raced since August, but the figures he earned in shorter races last summer are as good as, or better than, the top choice. Not sure about winning a mile and one-quarter race first start in more than six months, but maybe it is

not so tough. He can lollygag at a slow pace, then blast home the final quarter-mile. SHAZIER ran okay finishing sixth last out in a race he needed; he can improve second start back.

SIXTH RACE

Two starts after winning a $25k claiming sprint, OIL CAN KNIGHT is entered for $12.5k claiming. Not a great pattern. But the eight-time winner is the “best horse,” with speed for an up-front trip. If he fires, he wins. The class drop suggests caution. AWHITESPORTSCOAT might have been in too tough last time for $16k. The nine-time winner drops back to the level at which he was claimed and moves inside to outside. Looks like a reasonable alternative to the top choice, with an opposite running style. TOBACCO ROAD has speed, drops a notch and gets a 10-pound apprentice allowance. HORSE GREEDY and BLACK STORM will be running late.

SEVENTH RACE

Based on a scintillating stretch run last out, GREGORIAN CHANT is sharp enough to knock off tougher rivals in this G3 turf sprint. A well-regarded import from Europe, ‘CHANT required two changes before finally able to deliver on expectations. First, he was gelded prior to his comeback last summer. Second, he shortened to a sprint last out and delivered a visually impressive last-to-first rally in a restricted stake. This race includes sufficient speed to flatter his style, and “give” in the ground from rain this week should also be fine. Rock solid, from off the pace. JOLIE OLIMPICA ran okay finishing second last out, but the consistent mare did not produce her customary speed. It turns out she got beat by a top rival; winner Charmaine’s Mia returned to win a G2. ‘OLIMPICA trained well since the comeback, she sharpened her speed with a 46-flat bullet work last weekend. Expect her to be closer to the front, just off the speed. Eight starts in two hemispheres produced one-two finishes every start. Comebacker CISTRON won this race a year ago first start following an eight-month layoff; this year he returns from a 10-month layoff. Sharp works, proven fresh, six furlongs perfect. Contender though he might be better on dirt. BOB AND JACKIE routes like a horse that will appreciate this shorter trip, same as SOMBEYAY.

EIGHTH RACE

SWISS SKYDIVER, champion 3-year-old filly in 2020 winning five stakes including the Preakness, launches her 2021 campaign as the class of the field. But she faces a tall order at low odds. Her challenges include running without Lasix for the first time, four-month layoff, final work last week faster than planned, cross-country ship, and inside post with speed to her outside. It is a lot to ask, even if she is the “best” horse. The call to post an upset is SANENUS, G1 winner in South America who crushed a G3 two months ago on this track. It was not a fluke, based on her form in Chile. Also, she is the only entrant in this G1 who has won without racing on Lasix. Major class test, but racing-fit, working well and could start at a hint of a price. Tab for an upset. AS TIME GOES BY, a well-bred filly whose first route was a ninelength romp vs. entry-level allowance rivals, also gets tested for class. She ran fast, won with plenty left, trained well since, and might be this good. HARVEST MOON emerged last autumn as leader of the California distaff division; her fourth in the Breeders’ Cup was very good considering she was forced to use speed and duel from an inside post. She missed by only two and a half. Freshened since, training well, expectations are she will fire first start back. But if the most accomplished in the field wins, it will be Midwest-based SWISS SKYDIVER in the Santa Anita winner’s circle for the second time. She won the Santa Anita Oaks a year ago.

NINTH RACE

Freshened since autumn, comebacker TABLE FOR TEN shortens to a sprint for the first time, and gets the call to win from off the pace. ‘TEN finished in the money all six starts, he might be the field’s fastest finisher. This trainer-jockey combo is practically automatic in turf sprints. The past year, Phil D’Amato and Flavien Prat teamed in 17 turf sprints: six wins, seven seconds. The challenge is rallying from behind in a race that could unfold at a tepid clip. That might give pace-presser CAERULEAN a tactical advantage. The latter has not run a bad race since switching to turf last summer; he can make the lead or press tepid fractions. CAERULEAN will get first run. BENCH JUDGE won a highly rated starter last out. His consistently high figures suggest he be taken seriously over a course on which he is 2-for-4 in sprints. BEAUDACIOUS has some gas and gets in light; BANG FOR YOUR BUCK will rally late. 990 feet.