ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 6, DAWOOD

FIRST RACE

KEEPONROCKINMEBABY adds a full furlong and has an even running style that suggest an elongated sprint might fit best. Plus, she has some upside with this being only her fourth start. She is a 6YO so putting three races together means even more. QUANDARY is stuck on the rail and that hurts going this tricky distance. She has some speed and tries this level for the second time all for a good barn in Hone. CHEROKEE PAPOOSE has improved her Beyer in every start including tougher two back. She adds a full furlong which might help. This barn is 32% with their maiden claimers and they show a flat bet profit.

SECOND RACE

STREAMING TIGER simply has the best figs and just doesn’t face much in this field. Does that mean she is your default winner? We are leaning in that direction for sure. Perhaps 6 1/2 furlongs was just a tad far for her and if so then today’s 5 1/2 is a better fit. She has some tactical speed and Hebert knows her well. Let’s move on. NEW YEAR’S CHIC is by a 17% debut sire. Her dam was un-raced. Lone sib is 17-3-2-1 and earned 23K. Works are well spaced. OUTSIDE THE LAW is by a 8% debut sire. Her dam went 15-5-1-3 and earned 106K. Five of six sibs won including four multiple winners with the best banking 214K. Lots and lots of works while that drill on the 5th was 4th best of 47. TOSSAPENNYDOWN is by a 9% debut sire. Her dam went 2-0-0-0 and earned $550. Three of four sibs won with two having beat winners (40K and 55K). This mare gets a late start to racing as a 6YO. MAINLINE is by a 0 for 13 debut sire. Her dam went 9-0-1-0 and earned 17K. Lone sib is 5-0-0-1 for 4K.

THIRD RACE

DIIACHI beat zero home in his turf debut but only lost by 5 plus lengths and broke last to start. His turf breeding is actually decent as his 310 turf Tomlinson can attest too. He got a confidence boost last out when breaking his maiden and now goes third off the layoff. This gelding has a recent work and is bred to like not only the grass but also a route of ground. IRISH CHARLIE has run well on this sod in his last two. He draws a little better today. Race flow is average so although that doesn’t help it does not hurt either. POINT OF IMPACT ran evenly on the grass two and three back. Recent dirt try versus easier was OK. New barn is noted. HAVASU CAUTION is by a 0 for 12 debut turf sire. His dam went 6-0-0-1 on the sod and earned 3K. Lone sib never tried the weeds.

FOURTH RACE

SAY YES SALLY didn’t do much last out but it was her first here and she didn’t get much play (sent off at almost 8-1). She adds a half furlong today and catches a race light on pace. She might not find the front end but she will be close early all from the outside. OVERLOOKED ran evenly in her last two and both were her only starts here. This field is easier and now she goes third off the layoff. Too bad she doesn’t have more tactical speed. ATTILA’S TATTLE has some speed and just won on this dirt. This barn is 29% with horses that won their last start. Gomez is 30% when riding for said barn.

FIFTH RACE

CLUB CHAMP is proven around two turns, goes second time here, goes second time this jock, has speed, and goes second time this barn. Team Silva is 39% sprint to route. MANDREW has been trying better but to no avail so time for the big drop in hopes of a confidence bump. Second time two turns can’t hurt and the leading rider gets a leg up. ROYAL DUDE got some play last out at 9/2 but then broke dead last. A tribute to him that he beat four home. We think this gelding will like two turns and he draws fine.

DAWOOD seems to love his new barn and that makes perfect sense as trainer Dan Buckner is very good on the turf at 43%. If all stay in then this gelding gets good race flow once again. The more experience that Serrano gets when riding this gelding the better. ITS A BOY ran well two back and we expected that even though he was 11-1. As for what happened last out...we just don’t know. Maybe he didn’t like being in the 10 hole. He simply draws better today. New barn is noted and they are 43% off the claim. FULLBRIDLEDPHANTOM just won for fun last out and got a huge (for this level) Beyer in the process of 83. He has to bounce off that figure, right? What if he is just a new turf horse? If that is true then why not a class bump? OL’ DRUNK DADDY is by a 7% debut turf sire. His dam never tried the green. Two of five sibs won on the grass.

SEVENTH RACE

RUNNERATTHECORNER had all kinds of trouble in his debut but it still was versus better compared than today. He won his second start in a shortened sprint and did so nicely. After a short break, he returns here in a logical spot all with fresh speed which is often the best kind of speed. Sure there is other zip in here but we still think this guy might be quickest. First Lasix to round out the appeal. BOISTEROUS RASCAL is a hard trier that just broke his maiden in his 11th start. What if he got a taste of winning and liked it? New barn is 18% off the claim. We don’t see many claims in the maiden ranks yet this guy was taken in his last two starts. BULLET TIMES popped and stopped on the turf two back so pick your excuse. Then he broke 9th of 12 in his most recent. He returns to win distance of three back where he got an OK Beyer of 37.

EIGHTH RACE

CALL YOUR BLUFF didn’t fire last out but also did not get tote support when sent off at 37-1. Those Colorado tries over the summer are simply better than what we saw last out. Jock switch to Garcia hints at an improved effort as does second off the layoff. There is one thing for sure and that is her recent poor try helps today’s price. SHE BEGAN AGAIN is in good form. She likes this barn and gets an extra furlong to work with today. This mare has never missed the board on this dirt. Once again she draws outside but hey that works for her. BLUEGRASS BETTY actually ran better than it looks in recent turf try. She was only two lengths back at the 1/8th pole before she tired. She was sent off at 118-1 which bodes well for today. This barn is 1 for 2 going turf to dirt. This mare has won on this dirt before.

NINTH RACE

APPEALINGLY EASY did run better in his third start which was also his first here. He broke 7th of 8 but was still right there after the first two calls before then tiring. He is a 5YO so he does have some maturity and we like that he finds a race only 11 days after local debut. The price should entice. UNCONSCIOUS POWER has speed and draws outside. Those figs in the 40’s two and three back certainly fit here. Added distance actually helps theft chances. GRANDPA A. C. gets a change of scenery with the barn switch and drops a notch in class. Full field helps all the exotics.

TENTH RACE

BROZILIAN is the value pick. Prior two starts before the layoff came with poor breaks and that is tough to overcome going one turn. Plus, who is say if he didn’t dislike New Mexico. Last race did come back key when 2 of 7 returned to win with figs of 65 and 65. This gelding has hit the exacta on this sod in half of his four starts. This barn is 33% off this type of layoff and 40% with all of their turf starters. This gelding draws fine and gets an average pace to chase. AVALON KING like this sod. This gelding has some tactical speed so the jock switch to Vergara may help. This guy could be a new turf horse and is bred to like the green with his 335 grass Tomlinson. FISHEL just got a 75 Beyer on this sod. Why can’t he improve second out? Prior turf tries came at Santa Anita and Del Mar. Outside post is the main knock. BEA’S BOY is by a 12% debut turf sire. His dam never tried the grass nor did lone sib.