ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 5, JUNGLE FIGHTER

FIRST RACE

PASZ THE PEPPER has a shot to steal this, as she does figure to shake loose in the opening stages; distance a question but if she can back down the fractions sufficiently she may be able to last. PASSION’S IMAGE was no threat after a slow start cost him position in that turf try last time but she has to be expected to be a late threat back on the main track today; scored with a nice rally at this level two back. U KNOW I B LION also goes from turf to dirt and she’s best on this surface as well; early zip may mean she gets first run on the top pick.

SECOND RACE

SOSUA is kin to only one other starter, Girl Daddy, who won her own debut and then the Grade 3 Pocahontas before running third in the 2020 BC Juvenile Fillies; works strongly suggest this filly has some speed. HEY HOTTIE debuts for trainer Mike Stidham and she sports some nice breezes of her own; the dam and her only starter both only won once but sire Competitive Edge was a Grade 1 winner (Hopeful Stakes) who won his first start as a 2-year-old. BOCA adds blinkers for her first start of the year; she showed speed in her bow back in September and she could prove tough to catch if she can get clear this time around.

THIRD RACE

FIRST GOLD is out of a dam who posted both of her wins sprinting on the dirt, and her best foal to date, It’s a Sin, posted all of his five career wins on the main track but she produced a turf winner in Gold Piece and Robert Smith does well with horses stretching out from sprints to routes; Smith also excels with runners making their second career starts. R TENDERONI is out of an unraced dam but her only starter to try the grass did win on this surface (Lookin Fabulous); goes long for the first time and makes her first start since January but trainer Georgina Baxter wins at a high rate with both angles. V K STAR is buried on the AE list but if she gets to run she’s clearly a treat based on a couple of game recent efforts.

FOURTH RACE

MI CLEOPATRA AND I was no threat to the winner but was game to save the place and she ran well in defeat when against the race flow in her prior two starts; tactical speed should mean she sits an ideal trip off the speeds. FLAMING INDY has some early speed and should be a factor from the bell; tried rating last time out but seems to be at her best when on the lead and she figures to be looking for the lead once again. ORNERY ANGEL won on the lead two back, and though she weakened in her latest she showed an ability to sit off the pace and make one run; should be a factor from the start.

FIFTH RACE

JUNGLE FIGHTER meets lesser after facing Grade 3 company in his latest, and while the move into a claimer can be viewed as a negative he’s hardly plummeting to the basement level; should be nicely set up here with a couple of confirmed speeds to his inside and out. FLY THE W has improved with each turf start in terms of Beyers and he’s another who figures to be nicely set up, with SKIPPY’S STRIKE and THE BOSS FACTOR likely to hook up right from the start; makes his third start off the layoff and capable with another step forward. DAZZLING TRUTHS was game in his first start off the claim by a high-percentage barn and he’s another who figures to benefit from the expected race flow.

SIXTH RACE

CAPTUREMENOW finally broke through to graduate two back in her 17 career start, and though she was well up the track in her first start vs. winners the resulting Beyer gives her strong credibility with these; has the speed to stay closer to the pace than she was in the opening stages of that last one. SHARON’S LAW was only a neck behind the top pick three back and she came out of that race to win easily in her next start; she has proven speed and will take them as far as she can

on the lead. VANA GRAND was off the board when last seen but the figure she posted there fits with these; may be the right value play off that Beyer.

SEVENTH RACE

T J MUNNINGS was favored in his turf debut, and though he settled for the place he ran a nice race in defeat, closing with interest in a race that wasn’t loaded with speed; may be able to make the last run here given a better set up. NOT INVENTED HERE stretches out and moves to the grass for his first start off the claim by the meet’s top connections; pedigree offers few clues, as she’s the first starter from the dam, who was winless in five turf starts, but sire Candy Ride scored in his only try on the surface. NOTHIN REALLY was hurt by the pace scenarios in his last two starts, and though he was off the board in his first start on the green he ran well in defeat there, closing nicely despite some slow splits up front.

EIGHTH RACE

STRIKING HEIR beat better last time out despite a tough trip going seven furlongs, and though he was on the lead there he can also rate off the pace; that versatility gives jockey Tomas Mejia some options from the rail, and if he can work out a favorable trip he should be tough to beat. He may get first run on PAPAJUDGY, the expected pacesetter, who will try to steal this under Jose Ferrer; game in defeat last time, when he weakened only late after setting the pace from the start, and that was the best Beyer of his career. DOODLE HOPPER loves to win and he loves this strip; always a danger to run them all down in the lane but he does need some pace help and he could be chasing a controlled tempo in this sprint, with PAPAJUDGY likely to shake loose.

NINTH RACE

ALEX’S FIRST was clearly overmatched in the Florida Oaks but this huge class drop makes her easy to like today, as she does fit based on her turf figures; her running style means she’ll be looking to make the last run but there’s plenty of pace in the field to set her up. MUSETTA rallied for third, behind PRINCESS NINA, in her first start off the layoff, and though she was behind that rival she was moving well in the late stages; the Beyer she posted there was an improvement on her maidenwinning figure and she’ll be tough today with another step forward. PRINCESS NINA is the one to beat after beating several of these same rivals in her latest, even if she took full advantage of a clean, inside trip behind fast splits and now moves outside.