ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 8, KENJILOOKSLUCKY

FIRST RACE

TIGER’S SONG invades from California where the son of G1 SW Smiling Tiger showed talent vs. tougher. He faded to 6th when last seen there March 12 but was not only facing tougher, he was routing, stumbled at the start and rushed into contention before tiring. He drops and returns to sprinting for this invasion. His 2 sibs are both winners. INDY’S SONG has been knocking on the door in spots like this the last couple months. He rallied for 2nd as the 2-1 favorite here last time out March 8, a run that looks even better when you note 2 he beat came right back to win. Two of his 5 sibs are winners including Poseidon Aquarius (21-6-2-2, $120K, SP). PARK LANE LAD ran on well for 4th in that same March 8 race as INDY’S SONG. That was just his debut so he’s certainly eligible to improve.

SECOND RACE

FLURRY OF FEATHERS is the only one in here with proven turf form as the daughter of Lea stalked and stayed on for 4th on this course at this trip Feb. 24. Not only was that her first try on turf, it was her first action in almost 3 months so she can move forward, even with the class hike. Three good works since say she’s doing well. She’s kin to turf winner Superstar Diva (40-3-5-11, $83K, 11-10-3 on turf). JACOMINA was no factor vs. much cheaper on dirt here March 10 but that was also her first start in 4 months. She may benefit from that outing and is bred to prefer this longer trip and to handle the footing.Three of her five sibs are winners including Dynabeaver (61-7-11-11, $144K, 2-0-0-0 on turf) and He Flies a Banner (19-3-3-1, $40K, 6-2-1-0 on turf). DORITA’S HEART was no factor in her first 2 starts in SoCal, including a try on turf in her debut. In her defense, those came vs. tougher. She’s been freshened and may appreciate the change of scenery and drop. She’s worked well for this return.

THIRD RACE

BELLA’S BACK was a bit slow into stride here March 12 so she wasn’t able to use her main weapon, her speed, ending up 5th. Not only that,

she was facing much more expensive. She drops and with a better break she can wing it early and make them come get her. CEES SMOKEN pressed the pace before tiring to end up a well-beaten 4th here Jan. 20. She’s been freshened since, has run well off the bench before and boasts a super bullet work here March 24. ME FIRST was in a funk from last summer into this month but she perked up with a much better run to be 3rd here March 22, a sign she may be rounding back to form. She’s won 10 times and you don’t do that by accident.

FOURTH RACE

FOXRUN looked super here March 16 as he dueled early and then blew the race open into the lane to win easily. He was claimed for a 3rd straight time and while he has speed to be in a good spot from the start he’s no need-the-lead type. MAJOR MUNNINGS is the one to beat as the 7yo comes here in excellent form with 8 in-the-exacta finishes in his last 10 starts. That includes a good 2nd going slightly shorter here March 5. He figures on the lead from the start, particularly with the rail draw. CONQUEST SMARTEE was no factor in his last 2 here this month but both came vs. tougher. Today’s class relief may be just what the Dr. ordered.

FIFTH RACE

FIGHT ME was slow out of the gate in a race just like this here March 23 but finished with good energy for 3rd, though that won’t make those who made him the 8-5 favorite feel any better. Slow start aside that made for a 5th straight decent effort and with a better start he can get a nice stalking trip. ONE SALTY DOG was 4th not far behind FIGHT ME in that March 23 race after also being slow into stride. His main weapon is his speed so with a better break he can be prominent from the bell. RIVER NORTH invades from California where he was, for the most part, facing likely tougher. His last few came on GG synthetic so he’s back to dirt here but his lone win came on dirt, and at this trip, too.

SIXTH RACE

MAJESTIC MOUNTAIN showed talent when 2nd vs. much more expensive here Feb. 17 but then dropped in for $5K here March 15 going a mile, dueled early as the 7-10 favorite and hit the brakes hard. She was claimed by Silva who’s strong off the claim and he drops her and returns her to sprinting, both of which may help. A bullet work since on March 22 encourages. I TE AMO debut with solid works for a barn that’s proven first time out and which is having a super meet. EMERALD

CITY is another first who’s been working nicely for a trainer who does very well first time out. Four of her 6 sibs are winners including Swiss Heart (24-3-8-4, $73K).

SEVENTH RACE

STORM BAYOU won 3 straight this fall/winter and off the claim by Eikleberry moved up in class here March 2 but dueled and paid the price, fading to 4th. He’s back to his claimed level and that can get him back on track. While he has speed he’s no need-the-lead type so he need not get involved in a duel as he can be as effective pressing the issue. BIG BARREL comes here off 2 straight frontrunning wins on this track at this trip. Speed is his main weapon so he figures to try and play keepaway again, though he’s facing tougher and the top pick and UNLEASH THE BEAST don’t figure to let him have a nice, cozy lead. He’s worked well since his last win. PATRIOT DRIVE comes off a couple good stakes tries so that class relief could be key. That said, those 2 efforts and his best work has come on turf and you have to go back a long ways to find his last win.

EIGHTH RACE

KENJILOOKSLUCKY looked good beating maidens on this course Feb. 18 and then beating $15K N2L foes on this course March 4 before finding allowance waters too deep here March 17 when he stalked the pace before tiring to 8th. He’s down in class here and that can get him back on track. FISHEL comes off a couple solid outings on this course at this level so he looks like a good fit, even at age 9. BROZILIAN finished with gusto to be a good 3rd in a race like this here March 22, his first start in 6 months. That shows he’s jut fine off the layoff, though his lack of speed often leaves him with too much to do turning for home. That development is kind of funny, too, as once upon a time he had some tactical speed.