ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 3, DREAMPOINT

FIRST RACE

LEMON DROP ROAD raced greenly while getting outpaced in a tough spot on debut - Crowded Trade returned to just miss in the Gotham with a 95 Beyer, and has since finished 3rd in the Wood Memorial - before putting in a run for third in what appeared to be a useful effort; went a mile over a wet track last time and chased a strong pace in a race that went to closers; cuts back. SUPPLY AND DEMAND went for $230k as a weanling from the first crop from Exaggerator (seven debut winners from that first crop while connecting with 11% of such runners, 1 for 17 so far this year); dam an unraced sister to multiple graded stakes-winning router Redeemed; Abreu excellent with first-time starters on either surface and 10 for his last 26 with dirt sprinters in that sample (38%, $4.03 ROI). ABSOLUTE COURAGE brought a big ticket as a yearling by the excellent sire Into Mischief from an unraced dam; breezed a bullet from the gate at the end of March for Shug - past five years, firsttime starter, dirt, sprint: 10 for 101, 10%, $2.03 ROI, 6 for 44 with 3yos and up in that sample (14%, $3.12 ROI).

SECOND RACE

MICROMILLION dropped to this level last time over the same distance and ran a winning race while doing a lot of work on the pace, only to get nailed on the wire; that was a wet track, but she has run fine over fast dirt in the past. JARA finished behind several of these same rivals back in February when dropped in class off the short layoff; couldn’t threaten on the cut back while always down inside in her next start, but she rebounded on short rest last time to wire a field with a new top figure. MANI PEDI won over course and distance three starts back over a couple of these same rivals, though only with a 60 Beyer, a figure she matched in her next start when behind MICROMILLION; stretches back out off the claim and may have some pace to run at here.

THIRD RACE

DREAMPOINT debuted sprinting on the grass at Pimlico and made up some late ground behind a sharp front-running winner; stretched out for his second start on this surface and had some trouble exiting the chute to wind up outrun, before putting in a game stretch run to no avail; faces maiden claimers for the first time on this surface as he returns from the layoff. JUSTINTIMEFORWINE has run several races that would make him tough in a race like this despite his 0-10 record on the grass and he makes his 4yo debut as a new gelding for an underrated trainer; lost three times at this level late last year but the layoff might have done him some good and he has speed. ME ‘N SAP attained a level on the main track while showing some speed at times and mostly facing MSW competition; just missed in his last start at this level, though the winner that day was 73:1; has some turf in his pedigree.

FOURTH RACE

INDIAN COUNSELOR often found himself doing his best running too late while coming up short in his first eight starts on dirt, but he showed much improve early speed in his NY debut last time and survived a solid pace prevail at a short price; comes right back in a logical spot off the claim for a very good trainer. TAPIZEARANCE has been racing in good form here all winter and still doesn’t have a win to show for it; entered right back off the claim just two weeks after getting gunned down late for $25k last time and he can get the mile. TRI SAINT LORENZO went back-to-back in his final two starts of 2020, earning a new top Beyer over course and distance in the second of those wins; matched that top figure two back when third behind a couple of better horses, and he chased a solid pace last time in the slop while down inside.

FIFTH RACE

FUTURE VICTORY dropped in class last month at Gulfstream and dominated maiden claimers while making a wide run around the turn; lightly-raced 3yo has the pedigree to go on improving and faces a field full of underachievers in his NY debut for Pletcher - 28 for his last 122 with last-out maiden winners in turf routes, 23%, $2.07 ROI. SIMPLY went 0-6 in NY last year while getting unlucky a couple of times in allowance company; has won two of his three starts since dropping in class

recently but needs some pace to be most effective.

SHOOTIN THE BREEZE has run plenty of races that would make him a handful in here but he has also made a habit of coming up short at crunch time and had lost 16 in a row before winning his first start for Gargan in January; has tactical speed.

SIXTH RACE

SAVOY debuted sprinting at Saratoga last summer and looked like a horse in need of a race - and perhaps more distance - while not trying to get forward early and then racing on through the stretch in a useful effort; caught a wet track in his second start and stayed with the talented Ten for Ten to the top of the stretch before getting left behind; starts back as a new gelding with lasix on and may be able to step forward quickly over a fast track. COUSIN ANDREW settled for second on each of his three starts last year, the last two as the favorite; didn’t see the excuse in his run over this track and trip last March, though he did pair up the 78 Beyer he earned on debut, but he did run well when last seen as part of a contested pace in the mud; the horse to beat if close to ready off the bench. ROYAL REALM debuted sprinting and steadied early on before racing greenly in that spot without impact; that was a day when having the rail was an advantage and he appeared to need that run; stretches right out with lasix and blinkers on.

SEVENTH RACE

BODECREAM was up against it last time when settling back as Sayyaaf controlled the running in front, and he was racing on gamely in the late stages along with everyone else; thought he ran an excellent race in the Woodchopper two back while aggressively ridden, and he just missed in the Gio Ponti over course and distance prior to that. GOOD GOVERNANCE has had trouble staying on the track but his talent has been readily apparent when he has turned up and he is going to be hard on this field if he comes back ready off the bench; won that allowance race with authority off the layoff last year, after which he got a little unlucky in the Baruch as the favorite. EMARAATY a stablemate of GOOD GOVERNANCE for a barn that is loaded for turf early in the meet; had some traffic off the long layoff last time, but he got clear in time and was just outfinished at the end; dangerous with the recent race under his belt.

EIGHTH RACE

SIXTEEN TONS returns from a long layoff to make his turf debut as a new gelding, and will do so while dropping in class after last being seen finishing a good third vs. MSW rivals on the main track; the best prior foal from this dam is Sippican Harbor, who debuted on turf with an underrated effort before going on to win the Grade 1 Spinaway on dirt, and there are three other siblings that have won on this surface. CONFECTIONER’s lone turf start to date came in his career debut last summer, where he had some early trouble after taking money and rallied too late; back to turf for the first time since after failing to improve much on the main track. ON THE MUSCLE is probably the horse to beat following a gaining 2nd at Fair Grounds last time with a 67 Beyer; he is fastest on this surface on the way in and the horse he chased home last time was making his first start vs. maiden claimers on the grass.