ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 5, LIJANA

FIRST RACE

Suspect many will default in this meh $40K maiden-claiming dirt sprint to Epicurean, who has the most superficially appealing last-start running line, has speed, and is trained by W Ward with I Ortiz to ride. Maybe that’s the right answer. She was blinkers off, Lasix on for second start, first race after a long layoff, but all she really did in that Gulf maiden-claimer was run around there onepaced, unable to come close to keeping up with the winner and no match for the late-running runnerup. Visually, I was more taken with the only dirt sprint ZEBRA CAKE has tried, an Ellis Park MSW last summer in which she finished pretty well for third behind Ava’s Grace (second last weekend in the G3 Fantasy) and Sariah Sariah (most recently 2nd in an FG N1X behind talented Li’l Tootsie). Suspect she hated the TP synth last time and the work pattern is plenty strong. Amoss’s high strike rate with MSW to MCL runners like PI YO PRINCESS comes mainly from a span during 2018 when the barn won four in a row with such runners; since then they’re 2-15 wins, but most of the starters have finished third or better. The HOU race was a real dud, but the relatively soft drop hints they anticipate a bounce back. CARDIOVERSION is 1st-time tagged for a good KEE barn and likely better than the low Beyer two back over the plowed field at MVR.

SECOND RACE

On paper, you could throw a blanket over this whole seven-horse group of female maidens, mixed 3- and 4-year-olds. The sophomores get 8 pounds; unlike the 7 pounds the 3-year-olds were getting a couple months ago, this comes somewhat close to leveling the playing field. CLOSET SHOPPER is one of the 3yos and was foaled in May so isn’t even really 3 yet, but that also means she’s open to more improvement than several here, especially with a limited history of route racing and only one start in blinkers. She’s taken significant stretch bumps in both her two-turn races, forced extremely wide on a wet track in the first of them and stuck behind a wall of horses while shuffled back out of good position at the half-mile pole last time, galloping out almost with the runaway winner. If asked, think she could race very close in this mile, which has a short run to the first turn and to the wire. Guessing they were prepping FLAUTO for KEE in that TP debut, where she was sent to the lead from post 1 and held pretty well in a race that yielded a very low number. Likely overlooked somewhat in betting. KIZZY B can get a piece of this if returning to her better pre-layoff dirt-route form after a shake-off-the-rust turf sprint comeback run last time.

THIRD RACE

EL KABONG lacked early speed, dropped to the tail of the field and still was last at the three-furlong pole but came with a good, steady run thereafter to get into the mix and post an encouraging final quarter-mile fraction. The rally came inside and after threading some rivals he wound up in a tight spot along the fence, perhaps a little hesitant to go through. Think the 9f will suit and he could be poised for significant second-start improvement. ABSAM figures solidly favorite for Maker / Rosario off the troubled but still competitive last-out performance. All the rained-off-turf starts likely tamped down the development pattern and he should show tactical speed. All that said, a likely underlay. In-and-out SEMINOLE BEACH has the pedigree for this move to turf.

FOURTH RACE

No winners but the last six KEE maiden-claiming starters for trainer P Sims have finished 2nd, 3rd, and 4th ie they were live enough. MSW dropper SWEET QUEEN BEE got racing experience over the Turfway Tapeta and worked a near-bullet half-mile on a busy breeze morning April 3 at KEE. Debut

ing LETS TAKE IT IZZY sports some flashy TAM works, attracts a top rider, is drawn outside for a clean trip, and could be overlooked in the betting. Career restart for SUPER LUCY, who raced once, on turf, during 2020 and has more of a dirt pedigree. Steady local drills for capable outfit.

FIFTH RACE

LIJANA did not come close to showing her best when shipped from FG to GP for a stakes try last out. She’s worked three times since and should be set to rebound with a favorable draw. White Frost has gone onto the shelf but is a very nice filly and Lijana made a good run at her after breaking from post 12 in debut, and she dominated that FG maiden race. Should be all the value with EDITOR AT LARGE and STUNNING PRINCESS taking action. Editor at Large gets first Lasix and exits the BC Juv Fil Turf, but while solid at age 2, her reputation never really seemed to match her actual performance and she seems like an underlay here. STUNNING PRINCESS, racing for the second time with Lasix and the first in blinkers, made a nice 3yo bow last out and ran into Plum Ali, subsequent stakes winner, in her SAR debut.

SIXTH RACE

It just comes down to whether SPICE IS NICE shows up or not. Not so much “is she ready” because looking at this long string of drills and knowing TAP, she’s ready. But twice last season she threw clunkers, so there’s some baked in unreliability. If she comes close to running her race, though, she wins at odds-on. MARKET RUMOR distinctly improved toward the end of her 3yo campaign and while the Falls City off the N1X win proved to be too big a bite for her to chew, she fits this allowance race well enough and figures to be better in 2021. MOVIE MOXY has some natural ability, though clearly not on the scale of Spice Is Nice, but rail draw might not do her any favors as she tries to work out a trip in her two-turn debut.

SEVENTH RACE

Fillies like Goin’ Good, New Boss, Nimbostratus, Alda, a few seemingly slightly lesser others — these are really nice horses! And yet I don’t think they stand much chance against “The Big 3” in this 3yof turf sprint stakes. Hate to side with the favorite when there are other good options but in the end feel CAMPANELLE is going to have too much for even the top challengers. This filly was exceptional at 2, twice winning in Europe, including the G1 Morny, where she handled a soft course. Slightly disappointing BC Juv Fil Turf, but that’s farther than she wants to go, and regarding the chance she was mainly an early developer who won’t be as effective at 3, the one workout video I could find, from Feb. 21, strongly suggested otherwise. TOBYS HEART though could give her a run. As with Campanelle, her last-start defeat can be attributed to trying a route, and she might not have really loved the “good” ground at SAR, where she comfortably beat a field that included four next-out stakes winners, not including runner-up Joy’s Rockette, a two-time stakes winner this year. CARIMBA at 8-1, her morning line, would be worth a bet, but she’ll be lower than that. Got hurt last year before she could prove those two wins were not merely about Indiana Grand competition. Like Campanelle, she blew the doors off Wink durning morning work, and that filly was a 3/20 GP turfsprint stakes winner.

EIGHTH RACE

Really don’t like this race. What lends hope that GROWL TIGER’s last-out MSW breakthrough wasn’t merely a one-race flash was his solid AQU career debut and the fact he was first-time blinkers while sprinting on nd 3/20. Might not need the lead - and better not, since there’s ample pace, or so it seems. ANSWER IN’s last sprint also was a comeback race with a spot of trouble so it’s hard to take it entirely on face value, but it feels more like they’re searching for answers at this point than spotting with great intent. GOZILLA third behind two solid but unspectacular horses coming back from a break in NY (strange). Not sure he has much improvement in him right now and the rail draw seems dicy.

NINTH RACE

Believe that HIT THE ROAD is “for real,” but the betting in the Makers Mark Mile might not fully reflect that, so, as with his last two wins, he could offer value. New challenge is shipping but he seems like a kind, intelligent horse, and the greater challenge might be adapting to a KEE turf course that not everyone handles. From look of lone post-Kilroe workout video I could find, he came out of that race in great shape. Positional speed, plenty of gears, and a cozy inside draw. Much prefer SACRED LIFE to Raging Bull between the C Brown-trained pair, and SL could wind up the longer price. Parse his US form and he looks like a serious contender - the same impression one gets from his Florida team workout prepping for this. Clearly the mile is on the short side but this should be a strongly run race and he’ll have a chance to get there. GET SMOKIN showed he doesn’t need the lead in this very fine TAM win last out, albeit against opposition at least a cut below what he now meets. With Flying Scotsman likely to lead, Somelikeithotbrown could prevent GS from getting the same trip here as he got last time, when the rider was able to get off the fence early on the first turn and into an outside pressing trip. That said, his recent works — solo drills — have been eye-catching.

TENTH RACE

$450K auction buy FINE COTTON has an appealing mix of speed and stamina in pedigree and has been pointed to this debut spot all winter while training right along at FG. Likely double digit odds. CARAMEL SWIRL is the deserving favorite and “one to beat” but they keep trying different stuff (short, long, turf, and now back to a dirt sprint first time no blinkers) to get her a maiden win and so far, no go. In her favor, she ran into very nice horses in her two dirt sprints and seems well drawn on the outside. RED HOT AND BLUE broke from the fence and had to be hard ridden to stay in the game going 6f in her GP debut this winter, actually coming home pretty well after all was said and done. The one workout video available said decent, not great, and one wonders quite how much is there, though she is very much eligible for improvement now.