ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 4, BAPTIZE THE BOY

FIRST RACE

First post is 12:40 ET. Remember 12% takeout on Pick 5 wagers including today’s Stronach 5 (begins with Laurel’s eighth race). COMMANDING GENERAL (1,032 lbs. on March 6; -52 lbs. from prior start; weights should be listed on the simulcast feed during the post parade) benefited from a clever Sheldon Russell ride when winning here last month. Russell realized there was no pace in the race and sent the gelding to the front to control slow splits. Farrior-trained runner takes next logical step up the ladder and is proven from off the pace as well. FUGITIVE (1,206 lbs. on Feb. 21; +2 lbs. from prior start) dips in class after facing a field that produced next-out 83-Beyer winner Moonachie (New York-bred entry-level allowance at Aqueduct). This looks like a fine spot for a colt that can work out a tracking trip while in the clear. BEAR FORCE WON (928 lbs. on Feb. 21; -61 lbs. from prior start) finished behind Fugitive, but

wonder if he “bounced” wheeling back on only 16 days notice following Beyer top. The race from two back would be good enough to win this and he has the positional speed to find nice early position. NO FOOLING DUDE (1,021 lbs. on Feb. 21; +87 lbs. from prior start) has speed and the rail and might lead from the opening bell. GOLAZO (1,088 lbs. on Feb. 21; -35 lbs. from prior start) is another that might have run back too quickly off only seven days rest. He now cuts back to a more appropriate distance.

SECOND RACE

WICKED SOLUTION still must prove that she can be as effective on this circuit as she is out of town, but she ran a solid race most recently at Penn National. Made the front three furlongs from home under a confident ride only to falter late behind favored Bess. Has the tactical speed to obtain a good trip behind the early leaders. SAMMIE SUNSHINE (1,118 lbs. on March 14) cleared off to set an uncontested pace last month and held firm despite swapping leads several times in the stretch. Taken out of that race by a barn that is 4 for the last 10 (40%, $2.62 ROI) off the claim. Might face more early pressure in the form of stretchout sprinter Ragtime Suzy. BRING ME ANSWERS (902 lbs. on Feb. 6), uncoupled stablemate of the top pick, received a sharp ride when wiring them going two turns. She utilized her tactical speed to make the lead under confident handling and sprinted home despite hopping back to her left lead late. Ten-time winner can sit off the pace if necessary. Listed as a vet scratch at Charles Town on March 5. Think NANA’S SHOES will benefit from the recent freshening. She has plenty of races that would make her competitive and can benefit from a quick pace up front. Exits a solid allowance at Penn National as the winner returned to finish second in a “two-other-than” with a 70 Beyer. RAGTIME SUZY (1,094 lbs. on March 20; -11 lbs. from prior start) and RAPIDASHQUEEN (811 lbs. on Feb. 26; -11 lbs. from prior start) both take necessary class drops after being overmatched against better.

THIRD RACE

MEMPHIS MAFIA (937 lbs. on March 6), a halfsister to multiple stakes-placed turf performer A P Elvis, was bet to favoritism for her debut. She let the speeds go inside and worked out a paceprompting trip while three wide. She took over outside the quarter pole and held well for second behind an experienced runner. Trainer Brittany Russell is 4 for the last 11 (36%, $2.60 ROI) with older (3-year-olds and upward) second-time starters in dirt sprints. With an alert break, she’ll be forward from the rail. SELF ASSURED (1,125 lbs. on March 6) finished behind the top pick, but is expected to take a big step forward in her second start following a 252-day break. She’s pretty quick from the gate and trainer Rodney Jenkins is 4 for the last 9 (44%, $4.42 ROI) with older dirt sprinters going second back from 180- to 360-day layoffs. Half-sister to stakes-placed dirt sprinter Reassured should be considered strongly in multiple-race wagers. WHY NOT TONIGHT adds blinkers and Lasix for first start in 210 days. Caught a tough group in second lifetime start as the runner-up returned to compile a 3-1-2-0 record with Beyers ranging from 56 to 63. That race also featured eventual blacktype earners Juror Number Four and Buckey’s Charm. POLISH COOKIE (933 lbs. on March 21; -41 lbs. from prior start), a halfsister to multiple stakes-winner John Jones and stakes-winner Eastern Bay, returns to sprinting after just missing against odds-on winner Gold Finch. Finished well when behind Memphis Mafia at this distance two back and can sit a trip behind the top two.

FOURTH RACE

BAPTIZE THE BOY (1,005 lbs. on Feb. 25; -20 lbs. from prior start) pushed the leaders three deep and kept grinding along for a minor award in a race where the pace horses simply didn’t stop. Capable of a good tracking trip just off Great Go Go, a gelding that is a question mark going seveneighths. BENANDJOE (1,210 lbs. on Feb. 5) hasn’t sprinted since his career debut, but ran pretty well last time at a mile considering there was no pace for him to attack (the leaders ran 1-2 all the way around). Very competitive from a Beyer standpoint. TOY (1,188 lbs. on Feb. 5) also turns back in distance exiting that paceless Feb. 5 start. It will be interesting if he gets enough to run at here as both of his wins came in routes and the pace might be on the slow side once more. VALUED NOTION (1,305 lbs. on March 5; +11 lbs. from prior start) has returned with a vengeance following 196-day layoff with two scores. Like that he utilized different running styles in those races and can adapt to any pace situation.

FIFTH RACE

SOUPER EMPEROR (1,144 lbs. on March 21) ran okay in his debut despite looking a bit green. Tentative early in between horses, he dropped back to last and took dirt while racing along the rail. He lugged in a bit when changing leads in upper stretch, then finished with belated interest on the inside. Believe this half-brother to stakesplaced dirt sprinter Olympic Village will appreciate the extra furlong. FORTH ran better than it looks last month. He chased a hot pace in a race that completely fell apart (top three finishers were seventh, fifth and eighth after the first call) and wasn’t beaten very far. The runner-up from that race returned to finish third in a special weight with a 58 Beyer. Daughter of multiple stakesplaced miler Delightful Dawn should show speed with new blinkers. PHAROAH’S FURY ($130,000 yearling; $135,000 juvenile RNA; $120,000 juvenile RNA), a half-brother to four blacktype earners including Grade 1-winning dirt sprinter Mani Bhavan, might have gone too fast in the early stages of most recent outing. Like him cutting back to seven furlongs and figures right there when they turn for home. GHIDORAH ($30,000 yearling) is a half-brother to multiple stakeswinning sprinter Altamura. PLISSKEN is a half to a debut winner and goes out for top first-out connections.

SIXTH RACE

MARYLANDER (1,088 lbs. on Feb. 28) caught a live race in first start off the Farrior claim. The winner of that heat returned to score for $8,000 with an 80 Beyer while the runner-up came back to prevail at the same level with a 69 Beyer. There wasn’t much pace in the early portion of that race and Marylander still made a slight late gain while saving ground throughout. Believe he can get closer to the pace if they don’t go guns blazing early. MONKEY’S MEDAL (1,004 lbs. on March 20; +4 lbs. from prior start), on the other hand, doesn’t have any speed and will be at the mercy of the race flow. Fell far behind under urging on the second turn last month, then finished belatedly for a minor award. EARNED IT (1,106 lbs. on March 20; +4 lbs. from prior start) is another one without much early gas. Has some back races that would make him competitive and think the slight cutback in distance will help. BOZZINI (1,271 lbs. on Feb. 7) drops with speed and that could prove a potent combination at the nickel claiming level. Finished ahead of Ballivor last time and that one returned to win for $10,000 with a 74 Beyer. Dangerous if allowed to walk the dog up front. Listed as a vet scratch here on Feb. 21.

SEVENTH RACE

The good news is that each of ARMANDO R’s last two Beyer Speed Figures would qualify as this race’s best-last number. The bad news is that the half-brother to synthetic stakes-placed sprinter Fifthatnarraganset hasn’t raced in 390 days. Actually thought he ran pretty well on the Ides of March in 2020 as that Gulfstream track seemed to favor inside speed and Armando R rallied wide to finish ahead of two next-out winners. The winner of that race, Youngest of Five, returned to compile a record of 8-3-0-3 with Beyers ranging from 72 to 84. RATIFY (1,139 lbs. on Feb. 7) makes first start for the high-percentage Russell barn. Although the half-brother to multiple stakes-winner Mr Pursuit and stakes-winning dirt router Rienzi has come down with a bad case of seconditis, he ran well when the beaten favorite going two turns last time out. Sat behind a speed duel, advanced into the teeth of the pace to take over at the fivesixteenths and held gamely for the place. Should get close to the lead adding blinkers and breaking from the rail. GOLDEN GALLANT ($35,000 yearling) is a half-brother to multiple stakes-winning dirt sprinter Whereshetoldmetogo (won debut) and stakes-placed dirt router Castlewood Terrace. Seems well-spotted for belated debut. TIPYOURHATTOTHAT (1,100 lbs. on March 6), a halfbrother to multiple stakes-winner Full Salute and Grade 3-placed synthetic router Tripwire, should show good speed stretching back to the mile. Just missed at this distance three back with a pacepressing try. REPLICANT, a son of stakes-placed dirt router Return the Jewel, is eligible to improve in second start following 384-day layoff. UNCLE JEROME gets class relief after a tangled start in his career debut.

EIGHTH RACE

EVEN THUNDER (1,035 lbs. on Feb. 25) turns back in distance seeking hat trick in first start off Gorham claim. Broke slow around two turns last time out, made a three-wide bid to the front outside the quarter pole and was game to put away a stubborn Colonel Juan. While it’s possible he’s more comfortable at longer distances, it’s worth noting he was a multiple stakes-winner going three-quarters earlier in his career. Capable of solid midpack trip if away well from the stalls. BEYOND THE VICTORY has lots of seconds on his card, but he won second off the layoff on two occasions last year and will attempt to repeat the feat here. Seemed tired at the end of recent Penn National route in the manner of a horse that might have needed the race. Like the top pick, he’s done the bulk of his work going longer. Keep an eye on ROUGH SEA (1,146 lbs. on March 6; +4 lbs. from prior start), who drops in class after finishing ahead of Villainous (next-out 91 Beyer when second in a $25,000 claimer at Aqueduct). Latekicker saved ground last time out, was briefly in behind horses and finished with a belated rally. Needs some pace up front, but has won going route to sprint in the past. GOODLUCKCHUCK (1,167 lbs. on March 6) couldn’t make the lead last time as New York invader Money Ride went very quick en route to a gate-to-wire score. Think he’ll be forward from the rail. FLAT OUT FLYING (1,017 lbs. on Feb. 12) finished ahead of two nextout winners when second to sharp Prince James (returned to place in a “two-other-than” with an 84 Beyer). Well-spotted at this level, he’ll rally late.

NINTH RACE

PORTAL ONE (1,062 lbs. on March 6; -20 lbs. from prior start) battled Francis X. into defeat through hot fractions, opened up a clear lead in the stretch and just couldn’t stay that seventh furlong when beaten as the favorite for the fifth consecutive time. Turns back to three-quarters here and looms the speed nearest the inside. Gets one more chance in third start of the form cycle. Davis lands here instead of Francis X. MOSLER SAFE ($22,000 weanling; $45,000 yearling) is out of a half-sister to stakes-winning turf router Giada Vegas from the family of Grade 1-winning turf router Storm Trooper and champions Northernette and Storm Bird. Solid work tab for barn that sent out debut winner Silent Service here in January. DON’T DARE ME did some good things last year at two and now returns as a new gelding with Lasix on. Finished ahead of two next-out winners in his career debut when headed by Kenny Had a Notion, a gelding that returned to compile a 7-3-1-1 record with Beyers ranging from 50 to 77 (all three wins in stakes). Bullet workout for this last Friday. BUZZHOUND (955 lbs. on Feb. 28), a half-brother to three blacktype earners including multiple Grade 2 winner International Star, rallied nicely over wet going in his debut and can benefit from that experience. MR. MOSLEY ($20,000 yearling) is a half-brother to stakes-placed dirt sprinter Hell of Afire. Second dam was a multiple Grade 3-winning dirt router.