ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 5, TASAAMUH

FIRST RACE

DRAMATIZER did decent work over the FG turf this winter but the dirt-route maiden performance last fall at CD was in the same range and came before the horse began racing on Lasix. Timeform US late pace number absolutely swamps these but the challenge will be staying in close enough contact to get up in a race that ends at the sixteenth pole. TIME FOR GLORY is one of the stronger candidates to make the lead in a short, paceless field. Her 11/14 dirt try for this claiming tag, which came pre-Lasix, says she’s in range. SUNNY ISLE BEACH is the other one who could lead. Never been two turns, not getting any better, and is 4-5 on the line - no thanks.

SECOND RACE

MATT’S HONEY had a wide trip and little spark in the most recent race at FG but looks like a solid bounce-back candidate. Would expect something closer to KEE win at this class level and distance from October. MALIBU MOIRA’s best form has come on dirt, but she also is only two races into the blinkered portion of her career and her dirt race two back puts her in range, LADY KAZA could wind up lone speed and wired an FG dirt route over the winter, but that bunch was considerably softer than this one.

THIRD RACE

MUBARMAJ can lead or press, depending on what FORT PECK and Our Alibi do, both drawn inside him. The racing pattern - long layoff, meh comeback, drop down into a claiming race - should raise red flags, but we are, in the end, talking about a $50K claiming tag. Returned last

time in a very good allowance race and ought to move forward enough to handle this bunch, though likely as an underlay. FORT PECK’s pair of GP starts into this race were not good at all, but those one-turn miles aren’t really his thing, and connections hold firm at the last claiming price paid. His KEE race record encourages, as do the recent drills, and he could wind up the race’s best value. BIG BEAUTIFUL WALL also faced stronger foes in those two FG allowance races, albeit without making much impression in either. Got a great pace setup in his one-turn-mile dirt win last year and his main-track baseline remains somewhat uncertain.

FOURTH RACE

Trainer T Hamm hasn’t started a 2yo in an April KEE MSW race the last five years - which makes the presence of

SAN COSTANTINO even more interesting. The barn has proven very capable with early-season 2yos and this horse, from her works, looks quick. So, too, does ANGUSONIC, whose first recorded drills came in mid-February. The barn’s 2yos have been running well this meet, including a runner-up from an inside draw Sat behind a W Ward-trained winner. For this race, Ward has two, Nakatomi and HAPPY SOUL, the latter the likely shorter price of the two. The Ward 2yos that haven’t matched performance to price this meet were more turf-bred, but not so Happy Soul, who has a blazing KEE gate work showing and might wind up a very short price.

FIFTH RACE

Trainer G Motion’s record over the last five years with Euro imports racing in KEE turf: 7-3-1-2, the winners 9-2, 2-1, and 6-1. TASAAMUH’s final overseas start last fall was really poor and the trip to America with first Lasix could be related. In July, racing left-handed at York, she was wide without cover and a little too headstrong early but finished well for second (6.5 lengths in front of the show horse) behind colt who came back to be second in graded-stakes competition behind the very decent Tilsit. Hard to fault the work pattern for US debut. LAKE

LUCERNE and LINNY KATE exit the same GP race, the former finishing behind the latter but running the better race in her U S debut. Wide draw hurt Lucerne’s chances but she’s got another one here. Linny Kate meanwhile git a perfect pocket trip last out and couldn’t do much with it, but does stand to improve.

SIXTH RACE

LEGENDARY GIFT debuted in a very hot MSW (runnerup was a strong second in the Ashland earlier this KEE meet), showing speed but stopping badly. Homebred by a $35K stud has logged five works for this drop to $50K maiden-claiming, and should either lead or press over this route trip she’s bred to handle. LIVING FOR

TODAY’s solid sprint debut racing for this tag at Oaklawn hinted at a horse looking for more distance, which she now gets. Barn won one at KEE Saturday, got this filly a work over the track, and Ortiz’s last three 2nd-time starters in maiden-claimers going sprint to route have been 1st, 2nd, and 3rd, those last two at odds of 28-1 & 32-1.15-race maiden TAKE CHARGE PATTI finally exits the maiden-special-weight ranks and raced competitively in an off-turf MSW last year at KEE while facing competition likely similar to this. Leaving DEEMED ESSENTIAL out the top three but Pletcher’s barn is on fire at KEE and she does fit.

SEVENTH RACE

WINTER SUNSET wasn’t ready for her long layoff comeback run last fall at KEE but showed she still has spark in her most recent start, a Fair Grounds stakes. She was bumped very hard from both sides and thrown off stride after leaving the gate, winding up farther off the pace than she prefers, but finished willingly and galloped out with very good energy. Came back with sharp half-mile drill and should be forwardly placed on a moderate pace, but while there are other explanations than a dislike for the course, the two KEE turf duds do give one pause. STUNNING SKY the likely favorite and won the Valley View, the understudy race to the G1 QE II, over the KEE turf last fall. First start v. older horses yielded a close second at odds of 2-1, though she might’ve been over the top following a long, long string of races. Figures formidable but not invulnerable. A horse can’t be given a more perfect trip than the one J Graham gave JOY EPIFORA last out. Thought she was home but she simply was outkicked, showing, to me, at least, her limitations.

EIGHTH RACE

PETIT VERDOT in his most recent dirt race was third behind Jackie’s Warrior and Therideofalifetime in the strongest 2yo maiden race run during last summer’s Churchill meet. That’s a long and strong work pattern for the comeback run, and he’s first-time gelding and first Lasix. To me the most pressing question is whether he can handle a sprint this long and at the expected odds I’ll guess he can. INSPECTOR FROST ran flat in a tough Fair Grounds sprint allowance last out but I expect a much better performance as he’s given the drop to $20K N2L claiming over a track where he won last fall. VERIFIED’s best races put him squarely in the mix but I think his overall trend line points down.