ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 6, FLAT AWESOME JENNY

FIRST RACE

SCOTT ALAIA debuted sprinting on dirt and raced greenly in that spot after breaking a bit slowly, before just missing 2nd behind the odds-on, class-dropping winner; bred to stretch out and can improve on the surface switch being from a dam was a two-time winner on grass in her career, and she has already dropped one turf winner. QUIET HORIZON lands in a likely spot first time out with the pedigree to be successful - dam was a three-time turf winner for this trainer in her career (90 Beyer top) and her best foal to date is Quiet Out East (three career wins, all in turf routes); Clement 7 for his last 31 debuting maiden claimers on turf (23%, $3.33 ROI). EXFILTRATION dropping for the first time while switching to turf off a bit of a layoff; doesn’t have a lot of turf in her pedigree but she has faced much better horses in her three starts on the main track.

SECOND RACE

ICY DUDE dropped off the layoff last month and ran a winning race at this level while making an early move to take over, and then, perhaps, easing up a little too soon in the stretch and getting nailed by a repeat winner; right back in the same condition. NO LIME a closer in need of some pace as he looks to get back in form for this trainer; has some excuses for his recent races, including that last one when facing a much tougher field for the level. TRAPPEZE ARTIST was game to prevail over that sloppy track last time, though he did get an excellent trip in that race while sitting off a contested pace; will have to improve again if the top two show up with their best races.

THIRD RACE

WARFRONT FIGHTER is not easy to trust after 14 straight losses to begin his career, but he has earned figures in each of his last four races that are faster than anything his rivals have managed to run in 18 combined starts; now or never. JAILBREAKER failed to improve when finally dropped in class two back and failing to impact behind a longshot winner; cuts in half for this as a new gelding after getting outrun in a fast race for the level last time (winner American Gentleman earned an 80 Beyer in victory that day). SINASHACK caught a sloppy track when dropped to this level last time, and

settled for second as the favorite after contesting a solid pace with YEROSILVERBIZ; rebound chance off the claim and he won’t be favored this time.

FOURTH RACE

SEVEN LILIES has quietly improved since returning to sprint races last year, and his two most recent wins over this track are efforts that would give him a chance in this spot, including that top figure effort in January where he came with a strong finish to win going away in this condition; there is some pace in this race to set up his run and he will be a price. STEAM ENGINE tired to finish behind a couple of these same rivals last time under similar conditions, though there is an argument to be made that he ran the best race that day while on an enterprising pace; strong form since being claimed by this trainer out of a win over DARK MONEY and switches to Irad for this. DARK MONEY did well to just get up last time after sitting off of STEAM ENGINE’s pace, and he had an excuse two back when hampered by that rival early on and bouncing off the rail; versatile runner is a solid fit in this race but he won’t be 7:1 this time.

FIFTH RACE

MALIBU PRO went favored in the More to Tell off the claim last time, where he appeared to get gunned down without excuse after making his own pace; was only second-best that day, but fell to back-classer Control Group, who was winning for the 16th time in his career and appears to have landed in a better spot here. VINTAGE HOLLYWOOD has been facing better in his recent starts, and has often more than held his own in those tougher races; not sure that this is his best distance, but he has held his form over a long series of races and is a nice fit vs. this group. WHISTLING BIRDS broke his maiden over this track and trip over two years ago and his three wins since have all come out of town, though he owns several figures that would make him tough in here; has raced infrequently on this circuit since that initial win and he has some excuses for those races.

SIXTH RACE

FLAT AWESOME JENNY cuts back to a better distance for this while also dropping in class, and lands in a race that could get competitive early, which would only be to her advantage; would prefer to get her over a fast track. NEW YEAR’S WISH is returning from an extended layoff here while taking a significant drop in class, that after failing to run close to her best in her two most recent starts; broke her maiden for a tag and will be tough in here if she is close to ready off the bench. LADY BY CHOICE last ran for this tag off the layoff on New Year’s Eve, where she pulled off an upset over a sloppy track, with three of these same rivals behind her; underrated mare drops back down after facing Letmetakethiscall in her last two starts to no avail.

SEVENTH RACE

JUST RIGHT stepped up to this level last time off the claim and finished gamely for third behind a progressive winner; continues to hold his form and gets a positive rider change for a trainer who rarely reaches in, but is 3 for 3 second off the claim since ging out on his own; projects to have some pace in front of him here. WILD BANKER is stepping up to face a better field here, but he can also take advantage of a contested pace and he has run the two best races of his career since switching barns recently. BOURBON BAY was multiple stakesplaced early on, and he cleared his first-level condition prior to the layoff with a strong 88 Beyer, though he was kept close to a rated pace that day; hasn’t come close in his first two starts of the year but there are excuses to be made for those efforts; returns as a new gelding.

EIGHTH RACE

MADERA has hit the board on all five starts to date and drops for this after settling for second-best to an underrated rival last time in the mud; has more upside than most in here and has the speed to take advantage of bis rail draw. MEBS WEB cut back from a mile and scored easily at an overlaid price three back while earning a new top Beyer; cuts back again after contesting a solid pace last time. BLITCHTON LADY ran a couple of races early on that would make him tough in here, including that 77 Beyer effort on the drop in January; has not come close to running his best race in three starts since being claimed and he never looked like a winner two back before the claim was voided; cuts back.