ANALYSIS

FIRST RACE

Quarter horses.

SECOND RACE

TIGER’S SONG found 6 1/2 furlongs and his new home more to his liking with that recent W all at less than even money but you can see that, right? Second time with Evans can’t hurt and notice how connections want 6 1/2 furlongs right back. This gelding draws best and figures as good a trip as anyone. OK, let’s move on then. COLONEL TRAVERS won at this distance and did so wire to wire only two back. He was the big favorite and didn’t beat much but then he went and beat first time winners last out. Again as the favorite and again with an early breather. He looks quickest today and might go favored again. But he will have to break in a new jock today. The leading barn is tough to beat in this race. CAUSE AND EFFECT did run OK 1 and 3 back. That effort three back was versus better and at this distance. Second time this level can’t hurt.

THIRD RACE

BLAME IT ON RIO has never run poorly and catches a weak race for the level all while going for a hot Diodoro barn. This race is slated for the turf but management has said no turf racing until the 23rd. Added distance is no gimme but we would rather have the rail and good route breeding all for Diodoro than anyone else in here. OXBOW PARK ran evenly in both sprint starts to date and maybe that sets the table for today’s two turns. He exits a key race where 2 of 4 returned to win with figs of 60 and 38. BARELYSTILLCOUNTS is better in his last two starts and yea it is probably due to the turf. Still, we know this guy can get the distance something we can’t say about all of these. This horse has improved his Beyer in four straight starts. META J is by a 0 for 4 debut sire. His dam went 3-1-1-0 and earned 32K. This is her first foal.

FOURTH RACE

PROOF IT never got a breather last out and was trying two turns for the first time in a while. A contested pace did not help matters either. Now this gelding goes for Diodoro who is 25% off the red tag. This horse gets back to a sprint and that is what he does best. The fact that this barn wants open nickel claimers tells us more than anything. COOL EDGE is the other Diodoro runner. This gelding has speed and draws outside main pace foes. Recent figs are going in the right direction but can this guy put 3 good races together? SIX NINETY ONE is the inside speed. He likes this dirt with 4 wins on his resume and his current form is very sharp. This barn is 24% with horses that won their last race.

FIFTH RACE

ELEGANT CRICKET did beat top maidens to break her maiden and did so in her debut. We thought her most recent would have been better but maybe 6 1/2 furlongs is a tad far for her at least right now.

Or maybe she just threw in a poor race as the girls sometimes do. The meet end in a few weeks so expect more of these kinds of class drops. Today’s pace is better than her previous three races. TUFFENOUGHTOSTART faced first time winners last out and ran the same Beyer as her maiden breaker. That is tough to do. Race flow is decent and this filly is still improving. TRES TAURUS ran OK off the layoff and has every right to improve 2nd off it. A better start would help matters. She draws fine and goes for a capable barn.

SIXTH RACE

LOOKIN’ SWEET ran great 2, 3, and 4 back before not loving the grass in her most recent. We like that she goes second time new barn and that they keep her at two turns. Class dip can’t hurt and she gets good race flow. Now we just need a patient ride

from Juarez. RANDOM PLEASURE did get some play last out when sent off at 3-1. She actually ran OK for a half before spitting the bit. It was her first start on this dirt and she was shipping in from Golden Gate. We expect better second time this dirt and notice the recent work. PERKY BRUNETTE had a couple of starts before the long layoff that were promising. She ran evenly in her two return starts and both were sprints. This might be a good time to try a flat mile and the price might entice.

SHESA GOLDIGGER just doesn’t face much here. She did get a 53 Beyer only two back. She was buried on the rail going 6 1/2 furlongs in her most recent (she broke dead last). She gets in light with the apprentice up and figures as good a trip as anyone. DELIGHTFUL HIPS has some speed and in this race maybe that is enough. When last seen on the dirt, three back, she was facing much better. Class drop might be the key. JADEY AT THE BAR has a few tries here and there that are decent. Is six furlongs her best distance? It is for show bettors. We shall now forget this race.

EIGHTH RACE

A NEW TREND has solid figs for the most part and like the last race doesn’t face much. We rather like the cut back to 4 1/2 furlongs. The jock switch to Juarez is another plus. VIDAKS BACK is your default favorite. Recent two figs of 60 and 59 are better than all. Of course there is a reason why horses are at this level and consistency is not one of them. We have already hit the ALL button in this race but our editors say to play out the string. FORGOTABOUTME has some speed. Maybe that is enough. Not a ton of zip in here you know. Gomez leaves our top pick and ends up here.

NINTH RACE

MR. BENZ got a needed confidence boost last out and notice that his prior win to that had fallen off his current pp’s (last 12 starts). This guy is a 9YO and when a horse like this with 315K in earnings gets a win it can lead to a string of better efforts. It helps that this barn is 38% with horses that won their last race. Now this guy won’t get another sub 44 half to chase but this race isn’t pace-less either. We even like how this guy turns around in less than two weeks. ADENS DREAM goes for a barn that is 39% with new runners. This gelding has the best back class in this race. Why the long layoff following the claim though? Is this level too low? Works are very sharp. ALL AMERICAN HERO has some speed but can stalk. He draws fine and did win from the 2 hole only three back.

TENTH RACE

Here is another race slated for the turf that will be run on the dirt. MUSKET POWDER is good on any surface and is feeling great. He might be a new route horse. We expect a stalking trip today. SHIFTY DANCER goes third off the layoff and is best on the dirt. Those mile tries before the layoff at Emerald were rock solid. What if 9 furlongs was a tad far last out? THIRTY SECONDS OUT has improved his Beyer speed figure in five straight starts so bonus points for that. He has won twice on the dirt. Here is another that might prefer two turns.