ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 4, TALKING BOOK FIRST RACE

RUTHIN and PAMMY’S READY, the two Wesley Ward-trained first-timers, have worked in tandem several times. Video of their March grass breezes in Florida can be found online and Ruthin looked like the superior filly. She has a lot of speed and can lead or stick very close from post 1 with an alert break. Sibling Hit the Bid (by Exceed and Excel) was a multiple group-stakes winning sprinter on turf and all-weather surfaces. Pammy’s Ready by the versatile and capable More Than Ready, a good turf-sprint sire, and first to race out of the owner-breeder’s dam, Pammy Whammy, whose top Beyer (86) came in a turf route. Does have a better draw than top pick. Trainer WB Calhoun’s first 2yo starter this meet was a close third last week and PROMPTLY DONE has a very quick local gate work showing.

SECOND RACE

In a word - ugh. Guess VOMBA, dropping down in class with a fast recent local work, can track likely pace-setter SHI O’SHI, who has a six-furlong win but probably prefers something shorter, and wear her down in the late stages. Has major excuse for poor showing last year at KEE and in 2019 raced competitively over the local surface facing stronger foes. Keep in mind the 6 1/2-furlong race Shi O’Shi contested last out at Delta was a two-turn contest, and after breaking from the fence, she took heavy pressure on a hot pace. Forgivable flop and dangerous drop-down speed. EXTRA EFFORT drops, cuts back in trip, and has 2020 Kentucky dirt form suggesting she might contend. Also, to finish third she only has to beat two horses.

THIRD RACE

CARTEL QUEEN has burned up the track in her morning work and debuts for a capable debut and 2yo operation. Actually think she could be favored over the two W Ward-trained fillies entered, GUAJIRA and GOLDEN BELL. I can’t really separate these two. Guajira shows a mere $3K purchase price and is owned outright by Ward, who doesn’t go searching for a soft spot to debut the filly. That seems like a good sign. Three gate works - can she come away running from the rail? GOLDEN BELL’s rider can break and survey the landscape leaving from post 7. No especially quick works or major pedigree notes (Doc Boy, the leading sibling, is a stakes-winner on turf), but the horse is sure to take action.

FOURTH RACE

TALKING BOOK one of the few horses on this card about whom I have strong positive feelings. Yes, she’s up to an N1X off a narrow maiden win, but Coastana, who was second in that race, returned to win well 4/15 in a KEE turf MSW, and third-place Katama Moonlight returned with open-lengths turf wins at Gulfstream against maidens and first-level allowance foes. Feel certain she’s been aimed at KEE since the last race, and as for the 1 1/2-mile trip, it should be a plus. The dam has produced a long string of staying types and the added ground only should help this horse. SURSUM CORDA ran several races during 2020 that would put her in the mix, the issue being she hasn’t run at all since 2020. Handled the KEE course last year; stays. TASAAMUH looks all right for her N American debut, which comes with Lasix, but wasn’t anything close to exceptional overseas and might be overbet.

FIFTH RACE

When these connections claimed TRES EQUIS and immediately moved him from sprints to routes last year, they got two strong runs out of him, performances good enough to win this race. He ran all right in his first Turfway start but then appeared to turn against the all-weather surface. Back on dirt with a little freshening, maybe he can bounce back and post an upset. Just can’t quite endorse ZANESVILLE at something close to odds-on, though, on paper, the strong favoritism is merited. The wet track last out moved him up and he’s back on short rest. TILL THEN missed the better part of two years racing but has come back decently. In his current iteration one might wonder if he needs synthetic for best, but the pre-layoff dirt form suggests otherwise.